Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

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punkyg
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#581 Postby punkyg » Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:58 am

Dang! Karen what diet plan have you been using?
she is looking great right now do you think she'll strengthin by 11am?
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#582 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:00 am

punkyg wrote:Dang! Karen what diet plan have you been using?
she is looking great right now do you think she'll strengthin by 11am?


Oh yeah!!! She already looks stronger than 50 mph.

If you want to get surprised even more : http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater
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#583 Postby fci » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:13 am

Someone tell the UKMET that it is an outlier and to change its mind.

I do not like its solution at this point and am bothered that it has not changed yet.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#584 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:14 am

remember Iris and Humberto from 1995. Iris was heading WNW and humberton became a hurricane behind her and she turned SW. If the low behind develops fast enough it could have a similar effect.
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#585 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:15 am

From baby to adult!!

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models

#586 Postby O Town » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:24 am

Image
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#587 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:27 am

Less fishy trand on this run? :eek: hope it's won't continue! :roll:
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#588 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:31 am

center to the south of the main convection absed upon morning visible and SWIR imagery

maybe 45KT is stretching it a little given the center location
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#589 Postby punkyg » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:32 am

How bad is the shear to the north and to the west of karen?
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#590 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:36 am

punkyg wrote:How bad is the shear to the north and to the west of karen?
:darrow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html : decreasing to it west and 20kts or below 15k to its north
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#591 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:37 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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#592 Postby punkyg » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:38 am

Welll does somebody know when shear is suppose to decrease?


Thankyou gusty.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#593 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:42 am

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images

#594 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:49 am

06z GFDL a west runner with the UKMET :eek:
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models

#595 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:49 am

06z GFDL a west runner with the UKMET :eek:
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#596 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:52 am

Trends

Generally I prefer the UKMET and ECMWF for tracking purposes. Both have solutions favoring a westward movement later in the period...

Euro actually has it moving wsw/sw late beyond 5 days. Here's the loop
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 600!!step/
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models

#597 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:54 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:06z GFDL a west runner with the UKMET :eek:

:eek: :P !interresting...hope they will be wrong !!! :spam: but who knows?
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Re:

#598 Postby punkyg » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:54 am

Vortex wrote:Trends

Generally I prefer the UKMET and ECMWF for tracking purposes. Both have solutions favoring a westward movement later in the period...

Euro actually has it moving wsw/sw late beyond 5 days. Here's the loop
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 600!!step/

Oh wow if i showed mom this she'd freak! :D
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#599 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:02 am

Jeremy,

Can you post the GFDL 6Z I'm unable to retrieve it for some reason..
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models

#600 Postby Category 5 » Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:04 am

It's still way too early to predict whether this is going to be a fish or not.
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