Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[americanrebel]

Looking at some of the radar in motion, looks like Karen is either going due W or maybe a little WSW. I would say more due W more than anything else.

[BigA]

The fact that Karen isnt organizing quickly is not necessarily a good thing for anybody who could possibly be in its path. It seems a general truth that weaker storms tend to head more westward, and if Karen remains a large, weak TS for the next few days it may not get yanked northward as much in the weakness. Right now I see a more or less due west motion, but that is pretty much what the NHC forecast calls for for the next couple of days.

[Gustywind]

Looking at some of the radar in motion, looks like Karen is either going due W or maybe a little WSW. I would say more due W more than anything else.

Agree with you, seems in my humble opinion drifting more west than wnw since this morning hope it's a genearous jog or wobble... or my eyes are deceiving me

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 251834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070925 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 1800 070926 0600 070926 1800 070927 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 39.2W 11.7N 42.6W 12.9N 46.0W 14.4N 49.0W
BAMD 10.9N 39.2W 11.4N 41.6W 12.4N 43.8W 13.8N 45.9W
BAMM 10.9N 39.2W 11.6N 41.8W 12.6N 44.5W 13.8N 46.8W
LBAR 10.9N 39.2W 11.4N 41.5W 12.4N 44.0W 13.7N 46.5W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 1800 070928 1800 070929 1800 070930 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 51.7W 18.2N 55.8W 19.2N 58.5W 19.6N 60.4W
BAMD 15.7N 47.5W 19.5N 49.5W 23.0N 49.7W 26.3N 49.0W
BAMM 15.4N 48.9W 18.1N 51.6W 20.1N 53.2W 21.9N 54.2W
LBAR 15.1N 48.4W 18.0N 50.5W 20.8N 51.1W 23.6N 50.3W
SHIP 57KTS 60KTS 58KTS 54KTS
DSHP 57KTS 60KTS 58KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 36.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 34.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

BAMS model reaches 60w below 20n.

[Fego]

What?!.. an eye? umm help me here...

[CrazyC83]

Kinda looks like an eye trying to form...

[Derek Ortt]

that is the complete lack of an inner-core

[NONAME]

Not enough deep convection just dry air there.

[Evil Jeremy]

An eye might be trying to form, but I don't see Karen strengthening anytime soon, not with its massive size!

[Lowpressure]

that is the complete lack of an inner-core

I agree, but it does have very nice structure for having no core, kinda odd.

[Thunder44]

T number has gone down to 2.0:

25/1745 UTC 10.5N 39.7W T2.0/2.5 KAREN

18z models initialize still at 35kts. Karen is not strengthening nor is it developing an eye.

[Fego]

Dry air.. interesting. Do you agree that it is moving kind of west, may be a little bit south of west?

[RL3AO]

Lets say for some reason Karen struggles over the next few days. Could that cause a more westward track?

[gatorcane]

Definitely moving West or just due south of West -- I just don't see her turning out to sea. I think yet again the models are underestimating the ridge

Expect one of those "she should turn, she should turn, she should turn..."

[Derek Ortt]

lets focus on the upcoming 5 days and not worry about a US impact until the there is a part of the USA in the 5 day cone

[cycloneye]

until the there is a part of the USA in the 5 day cone

That is 100% right.Until it surpasses 18.6n,we have to keep watching the track of Karen.

[gatorcane]

lets focus on the upcoming 5 days and not worry about a US impact until the there is a part of the USA in the 5 day cone

Derek I was talking about the Leeward islands.....

[MCWX]

It certainly makes sense not to get too worked up about a potential, if any, USA impact so far away. Nonetheless, it is interesting to observe the latest ECMWF operational run with its position at 24N/60W and a large amplified ridge off the SE USA.

It is also interesting to note the rather strong signal on many global ensemble systems which seem to suggest a robust NAO event in the coming 2 weeks. It is interesting because some of the literature (Elsner) suggests a higher probability of more south/west tracks of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin when the NAO is in a certain mode.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

It's obviously too dry - despite the impressive size and circulation. Obvious intensity issues. Shear will have more effect because of this.

[skysummit]

Has anyone seen what the 12z EURO does to Karen? KABOOOOOM!