Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Wx_Warrior]

The $1 million question is where will Lorenzo in his benzo end up?

[Sanibel]

Stationary wobble SSE.

[hurricanetrack]

Mexico. No other options if one looks at the data. Correct?

But, I am not seeing the tropical cyclone on the GFS that wxman57 talks about for next week. Which run is that?

Thanks! At least things are busy...

[Chacor]

Flight underway.

[Chacor]

553
URNT15 KNHC 251532
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 02 20070925
152400 3024N 08856W 0132 00028 0164 +280 +232 360000 000 999 999 03
152430 3024N 08856W 0132 00028 0164 +276 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
152500 3024N 08856W 0132 00028 0164 +282 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
152530 3024N 08856W 0132 00028 0164 +294 +236 360000 000 999 999 03
152600 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0165 +304 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152630 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0165 +298 +230 360000 000 999 999 03
152700 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0165 +298 +232 360000 000 999 999 03
152730 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0165 +300 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152800 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0165 +306 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152830 3024N 08856W 0132 00029 0165 +310 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152900 3024N 08856W 0132 00028 0164 +306 +234 360000 000 999 999 03
152930 3024N 08856W 0132 00028 0164 +272 +232 360000 000 999 999 03
153000 3024N 08856W 0132 00027 0163 +258 +230 113001 003 999 999 03
153030 3025N 08855W 0132 00027 0163 +264 +236 101011 014 999 999 03
153100 3026N 08855W 9989 00168 0181 +250 +230 106015 016 999 999 06
153130 3026N 08853W 9742 00385 0178 +232 +224 108014 016 999 999 03
153200 3025N 08852W 9469 00635 0180 +218 +208 110018 019 999 999 03
153230 3024N 08851W 9125 00957 0181 +206 +146 105017 019 999 999 03
153300 3023N 08850W 8868 01154 0125 +190 +110 113015 015 999 999 03
153330 3021N 08850W 8595 01407 0109 +174 +090 104014 014 999 999 03
$$

[Chacor]

593
URNT15 KNHC 251551
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 04 20070925
154400 2953N 08921W 5269 05224 0038 -035 -369 137018 018 999 999 03
154430 2951N 08923W 5205 05308 0031 -041 -369 132018 018 999 999 03
154500 2950N 08924W 5136 05414 0038 -049 -371 129017 018 999 999 03
154530 2948N 08926W 5047 05538 0033 -059 -373 124017 018 999 999 03
154600 2947N 08927W 4978 05651 0045 -067 -375 126014 015 999 999 03
154630 2946N 08929W 4920 05737 0045 -075 -377 125014 015 999 999 03
154700 2944N 08930W 4871 05760 5006 -079 -379 127012 013 999 999 03
154730 2943N 08932W 4850 05850 0053 -081 -381 132012 012 999 999 03
154800 2941N 08933W 4851 05851 0055 -081 -381 134012 012 999 999 03
154830 2940N 08935W 4851 05861 0065 -081 -383 134012 012 999 999 03
154900 2938N 08937W 4853 05862 0069 -081 -383 132012 012 999 999 03
154930 2936N 08939W 4852 05884 0090 -081 -385 133012 012 999 999 03
155000 2935N 08941W 4852 05854 0060 -081 -389 137013 014 999 999 03
155030 2933N 08942W 4853 05884 0091 -081 -391 135013 013 999 999 03
155100 2931N 08944W 4854 05850 0058 -079 -397 131014 014 999 999 03
155130 2929N 08946W 4853 06095 0302 -081 -369 128015 016 999 999 03
155200 2928N 08948W 4854 06149 0357 -081 -081 129016 016 999 999 03
155230 2926N 08950W 4854 06150 0359 -079 -079 126016 016 999 999 05
155300 2924N 08952W 4854 06153 0361 -081 -081 129016 017 999 999 05
155330 2922N 08954W 4855 06151 0361 -081 -081 130017 017 999 999 05
$$

['CaneFreak]

Mexico. No other options if one looks at the data. Correct?

But, I am not seeing the tropical cyclone on the GFS that wxman57 talks about for next week. Which run is that?

Thanks! At least things are busy...

Mark, I think that was the EURO that wxman57 was posting. Yeah....that will be interesting because the ridge would likely be weakening by that timeframe as a trough comes to weaken that ridge. That would be interesting to say the least. We'll see though as we have said all season long.

[wxman57]

Mexico. No other options if one looks at the data. Correct?

But, I am not seeing the tropical cyclone on the GFS that wxman57 talks about for next week. Which run is that?

Thanks! At least things are busy...

Mark, I think that was the EURO that wxman57 was posting. Yeah....that will be interesting because the ridge would likely be weakening by that timeframe as a trough comes to weaken that ridge. That would be interesting to say the least. We'll see though as we have said all season long.

It's on the 00Z and 06Z GFS. I'm plotting isobars down to 1/2 millibar resolution to see it. Clearly shows up on the 500mb chart when I use 10 meter height intervals, too. The stuff you get online isn't high enough resolution to see it well.

[Chacor]

022
URNT15 KNHC 251601
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 05 20070925
155400 2920N 08956W 4854 06154 0363 -081 -081 132016 017 999 999 03
155430 2918N 08958W 4855 06151 0361 -081 -269 134017 017 999 999 03
155500 2916N 09000W 4853 06152 0359 -081 -361 132018 018 999 999 03
155530 2914N 09002W 4855 06148 0358 -081 -399 133019 019 999 999 03
155600 2913N 09004W 4854 06146 0354 -085 -361 137019 019 999 999 03
155630 2911N 09006W 4854 06145 0354 -085 -369 138017 017 999 999 03
155700 2909N 09008W 4856 06142 0353 -085 -387 137016 016 999 999 03
155730 2907N 09010W 4854 06145 0353 -083 -399 135015 015 999 999 03
155800 2905N 09012W 4854 06145 0353 -085 -319 127013 014 999 999 03
155830 2903N 09014W 4856 06144 0355 -081 -249 131015 016 999 999 03
155900 2901N 09016W 4853 06149 0356 -085 -173 112013 015 999 999 03
155930 2859N 09017W 4858 06138 0352 -091 -181 096017 018 999 999 03
160000 2857N 09019W 4854 06146 0354 -081 -207 102015 017 999 999 03
160030 2855N 09021W 4858 06148 0362 -075 -191 104015 016 999 999 03
160100 2853N 09023W 4856 06144 0355 -081 -177 113012 013 999 999 03
160130 2851N 09025W 4855 06147 0357 -079 -265 114013 014 999 999 03
160200 2849N 09027W 4854 06150 0358 -081 -257 118010 011 999 999 03
160230 2847N 09029W 4854 06149 0357 -083 -239 111010 011 999 999 03
160300 2845N 09031W 4854 06148 0357 -083 -279 107010 011 999 999 03
160330 2843N 09032W 4854 06150 0358 -083 -253 107010 011 999 999 03
$$

['CaneFreak]

Mexico. No other options if one looks at the data. Correct?

But, I am not seeing the tropical cyclone on the GFS that wxman57 talks about for next week. Which run is that?

Thanks! At least things are busy...

Mark, I think that was the EURO that wxman57 was posting. Yeah....that will be interesting because the ridge would likely be weakening by that timeframe as a trough comes to weaken that ridge. That would be interesting to say the least. We'll see though as we have said all season long.

It's on the 00Z and 06Z GFS. I'm plotting isobars down to 1/2 millibar resolution to see it. Clearly shows up on the 500mb chart when I use 10 meter height intervals, too. The stuff you get online isn't high enough resolution to see it well.

Oh, ok..thought that was the EURO. That's what it says on your post as well. Whatever. Interesting setup though. I know its a week out but things could get mighty interesting should this system do what this model projects. Thanks for the graphics '57. I love that resolution. Its hard to find resolution like that these days. Thank God for computers. We would be screwed without computers these days.

[wxman57]

Oh, ok..thought that was the EURO. That's what it says on your post as well. Whatever. Interesting setup though. I know its a week out but things could get mighty interesting should this system do what this model projects. Thanks for the graphics '57. I love that resolution. Its hard to find resolution like that these days. Thank God for computers. We would be screwed without computers these days.

Euro does show it as being stronger.

Back to the Gulf low - convection is a little weaker this hour than last. Pressure at the SW Gulf Buoy has gone up 1mb in the past few hours, too. It's weak, but I think it qualifies as a TD if it doesn't weaken any further before the plane arrives.

[drezee]

center on BRO radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Wx_Warrior]

12z GFS doesnt show much of anything

[sevenleft]

center on BRO radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

No. That little area of weak echos is at 23.3N 95W. It is the area of convection visible north of the center. The center is actually about 90 miles south of there, around 21.8N 95W. It is too far from the radar.

[wxman57]

center on BRO radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That's not the center, those are the squalls located 80 miles north of the center. And the radar beam height at 230nm from BRO radar is about 51,000 ft (center of radar beam). So you're looking WAY up above the surface. See my radar beam height link:

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html

[wxman57]

12z GFS doesnt show much of anything

You have to look more closely. A higher-resolution analysis shows the center well at 10am tomorrow:

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Is anyone running Google Earth updates of the plane's progress? Those live updates are pretty useful (not to mention pretty cool)...

[HURAKAN]

Is anyone running Google Earth updates of the plane's progress? Those live updates are pretty useful (not to mention pretty cool)...

Unfortunately I have to do homework and don't have the time to post the graphics.

[HURAKAN]

684
URNT15 KNHC 251611
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 06 20070925
160400 2841N 09034W 4854 06148 0357 -081 -165 115010 011 999 999 03
160430 2839N 09036W 4854 06146 0355 -085 -205 108010 010 999 999 03
160500 2837N 09038W 4854 06145 0354 -085 -193 105011 011 999 999 03
160530 2835N 09040W 4854 06146 0355 -089 -163 111012 012 999 999 03
160600 2833N 09042W 4854 06147 0356 -085 -171 119011 012 999 999 03
160630 2831N 09044W 4854 06150 0358 -087 -163 113010 011 999 999 03
160700 2829N 09046W 4854 06148 0357 -087 -131 117009 009 999 999 03
160730 2827N 09047W 4854 06147 0356 -085 -117 117008 009 999 999 03
160800 2825N 09049W 4854 06147 0356 -087 -107 114011 011 999 999 03
160830 2823N 09051W 4854 06144 0353 -091 -117 104009 010 999 999 03
160900 2821N 09053W 4854 06144 0353 -091 -107 096010 010 999 999 03
160930 2819N 09055W 4854 06145 0354 -089 -139 094008 009 999 999 03
161000 2817N 09057W 4854 06144 0352 -085 -129 101010 010 999 999 03
161030 2815N 09059W 4854 06143 0352 -081 -117 103008 009 999 999 03
161100 2813N 09100W 4854 06145 0353 -083 -135 103006 006 999 999 03
161130 2811N 09102W 4854 06144 0353 -085 -119 087006 007 999 999 03
161200 2809N 09104W 4854 06145 0353 -085 -107 083008 008 999 999 03
161230 2807N 09106W 4854 06144 0353 -085 -099 084009 009 999 999 03
161300 2805N 09108W 4854 06144 0353 -085 -105 075008 009 999 999 03
161330 2803N 09110W 4854 06143 0352 -085 -105 073008 008 999 999 03
$$

227
URNT15 KNHC 251621
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 07 20070925
161400 2801N 09112W 4854 06141 0350 -085 -085 105006 006 999 999 03
161430 2759N 09113W 4854 06140 0349 -085 -085 118007 008 999 999 03
161500 2757N 09115W 4854 06140 0348 -085 -085 114008 009 999 999 03
161530 2755N 09117W 4854 06139 0348 -083 -089 100005 007 999 999 03
161600 2753N 09119W 4854 06140 0349 -085 -095 113005 005 999 999 03
161630 2751N 09121W 4854 06134 0343 -085 -091 105006 008 999 999 03
161700 2749N 09123W 4854 06146 0354 -085 -089 088007 008 999 999 03
161730 2746N 09124W 4854 06145 0354 -085 -087 070008 008 999 999 03
161800 2744N 09126W 4854 06143 0352 -085 -091 067008 009 999 999 03
161830 2742N 09128W 4855 06140 0350 -085 -089 066008 010 999 999 03
161900 2740N 09130W 4854 06142 0351 -083 -083 085005 005 999 999 03
161930 2738N 09132W 4854 06143 0351 -083 -089 091004 005 999 999 03
162000 2736N 09134W 4854 06145 0353 -083 -089 087003 004 999 999 03
162030 2734N 09136W 4854 06141 0349 -085 -089 076001 001 999 999 03
162100 2732N 09137W 4857 06136 0349 -083 -087 022003 004 999 999 03
162130 2730N 09139W 4854 06140 0349 -087 -091 060003 004 999 999 03
162200 2728N 09141W 4855 06136 0346 -087 -087 072002 004 999 999 03
162230 2727N 09143W 4856 06133 0344 -085 -085 041002 002 999 999 03
162300 2726N 09146W 4855 06132 0342 -085 -087 012002 003 999 999 03
162330 2725N 09149W 4854 06139 0347 -087 -087 148003 007 999 999 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

648
UZNT13 KNHC 251624
XXAA 75165 99289 70903 08280 99018 27831 10014 00157 26226 09517
92841 21436 11518 85570 16836 12520 70201 07419 12018 50590 /////
11012 88999 77999
31313 09608 81559
61616 AF305 01JJA INVEST OB 02
62626 SPL 2896N09036W 1607 MBL WND 10017 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11516
017496 WL150 10016 083 =
XXBB 75168 99289 70903 08280 00018 27831 11971 24013 22850 16836
33706 07816 44669 05641 55621 02002 66584 00005 77511 06525 88486
08163
21212 00018 10014 11850 12520 22732 12017 33711 13016 44665 10514
55632 11014 66611 13012 77526 11010 88508 12513 99486 10514
31313 09608 81559
61616 AF305 01JJA INVEST OB 02
62626 SPL 2896N09036W 1607 MBL WND 10017 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11516
017496 WL150 10016 083 =