Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[wxmann_91]

SHIPS forecasts everything to be a hurricane. Another thing going against this right now is the lack of LL convergence (per CIMSS analyses). But really, shear is the big question mark right now.

[CrazyC83]

One thing I do think might happen is rapid intensification around 36-48 hours.

[cycloneye]

SHIPS forecasts everything to be a hurricane. Another thing going against this right now is the lack of LL convergence (per CIMSS analyses). But really, shear is the big question mark right now.

But in this mornings 12:00 UTC run SHIP did not had a hurricane.

SHIP 44KTS 45KTS 42KTS 39KTS

Check the models thread for the complete 12:00 UTC run.

[Derek Ortt]

wxmann,

there is most certainly extensive low level convergence with this system. The visible satellite showed this most clearly

I guarantee this will become a hurricane

[deltadog03]

I agree Derek this should become a hurricane, but I don't see it doing it rapidly. We have ALL seen how these systems have struggled (to some degree) out in the open atl. I am NOT saying it can't, but don't feel that it will.

[wxmann_91]

Well, the true way to tell if there is enough low level convergence is if the convection survives or even strengthens during the DMIN tomorrow. It didn't do a good job of surviving the DMIN today, though that is expected of fledgling systems.

[jaxfladude]

Finally an 100% guaranteed Fish Storm with NO impact on any islands or the CONUS/Central America/South America !!

Edit: Would that be nice???

[Chacor]

Not quite... I wouldn't say 100% fish storm, since it could still affect Bermuda (and if it doesn't recurve, the northeast as well).

[jaxfladude]

Not quite... I wouldn't say 100% fish storm, since it could still affect Bermuda (and if it doesn't recurve, the northeast as well).

Hey just tooting the wishes of many of the posters on this Forum....

[Fego]

02:15 UTC is the same as 7:15 p.m. Pacific Time? I'm looking the Washington University link that someone posted... I hope my question is not off topic.

[cycloneye]

Not quite... I wouldn't say 100% fish storm, since it could still affect Bermuda (and if it doesn't recurve, the northeast as well).

And if it does not recurve enough the northern Leewards may get it.

[jaxfladude]

Not quite... I wouldn't say 100% fish storm, since it could still affect Bermuda (and if it doesn't recurve, the northeast as well).

And if it does not recurve enough the northern Leewards may get it.

Hey you all, key us joined together in one of the single-minded wish things and at a predetermined time wish:
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"
"FISH STORM!!"

[Chacor]

02:15 UTC is the same as 7:15 p.m. Pacific Time?

Correct, Fego.

[Derek Ortt]

DMIN is not even a factor with this system. This is used FAR too much on this forum

There may still be some dry air in this broad circulation so convection may die out tomorrow afternoon. It happened with Dean and was not due to the DMIN (which more applies to tropical convection not associated with TCs)

[chadtm80]

[JTD]

Is DMIN/DMAX even an important weather concept? I mean it's never mentioned in NWS discussions etc. Where does this come from?

[wxmann_91]

DMIN is not even a factor with this system. This is used FAR too much on this forum

There may still be some dry air in this broad circulation so convection may die out tomorrow afternoon. It happened with Dean and was not due to the DMIN (which more applies to tropical convection not associated with TCs)

DMIN/DMAX doesn't matter for mature TC's. But I have observed that for those who are just organizing, it's a major impetus for the consolidation of an inner core. Once the inner core has organized, low level convergence increases and the TC becomes self-sustaining so that the effects of DMIN/DMAX are negligible.

[Fego]

How can I identify dry air ? looking at the wv sat? and second, how can I identify a weakness in a ridge?, like the one thatis suppose to pull TD#12 to the north. I'm trying to have the basic knowledge to keep TD#12's track.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not very enthusiastic about this system becoming strong. There's a strong zone of shear just to the north, so it may befall another fate similar to Ingrid. Also the large size means there's going to be a tendency for the convection to compete against each other and for dry air to get entrained in. Unless it can consolidate which it may be doing now.

I agree, I was sooo looking forward to a strong fish hurricane to track, now we may just get a weak fish hurricane by the end of the forecast period. What a dissapointment! I think we all knew it would fish, but since it's going to fish, was really hoping for a strong cane out of this and don't see it happening. Conditions just aren't there for it to happen....

I think anything else we see develop will probably be close to home like the Carib....It's getting too late in the year. I'm suprised we got a cape verde this late myself.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Shear may keep this weak for a while.
tropical storm in 5 days- agreeing with the nhc