Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[HouTXmetro]

Battle Royle II - Texas vs. Mexico - Lets get it on!!

Right now the Mexicans are Heavy favorites.

[HurricaneRobert]

Battle Royle II - Texas vs. Mexico - Lets get it on!!

That would be #1034378458. How many times have you heard "this one has Texas written all over it" this season? I guess that was true for Erin and Humberto. I've just seen this one get pushed all the way down into the BoC too many times.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'd love to see a name used up on this blob thats about to
plunge into Mexico. Some nice breezes on the mex coast
with a minimal ts sounds really groovy.

[Stratosphere747]

Battle Royle II - Texas vs. Mexico - Lets get it on!!

That would be #1034378458. How many times have you heard "this one has Texas written all over it" this season? I guess that was true for Erin and Humberto. I've just seen this one get pushed all the way down into the BoC too many times.

Just adding a little humor and some levity from the silly little Florida vs. Texas nonsense that occurs between certain posters....

Unless something changes, this is Mexico bound. The question is how far S it may get.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Latest globals show this thing pretty much stalling out...as expected.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_94.gif

I am still not sold on this going to Mexico in the long run though. As we have seen numerous times this year, the first idea on track is usually not the right one. We will see if history repeats itself this time too, but I think the entire Gulf Coast needs to keep a close eye on this. If the high doesn't build in as expected, or if some minor detail changes, then the whole currently expected scenario could be altered. Hopefully we will have a much better idea by midweek.

I think you'd do better, if you are interested in something in the Gulf, in 97L (?). Euro shows that (I think?) crossing Florida into the Eastern Gulf heading WNW in 10 days. The link you posted shows generally a S or SW motion from the majority of the models.


While 10 days out would usually suggest Texas is past the point of climatological probability, it isn't completely impossible, just very, very unlikely.

[Chacor]

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MINIMAL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.

[TexWx]

I know it's possibly nothing, but I'm going to continue to watch that little "spin up/convection" just east of Brownsville.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[HouTXmetro]

I know it's possibly nothing, but I'm going to continue to watch that little "spin up/convection" just east of Brownsville.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

To your credit, the convection is starting to refire around that spot.

[lrak]

I know it's possibly nothing, but I'm going to continue to watch that little "spin up/convection" just east of Brownsville.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

little more N tomorrow maybe hmmm....

definitely more latitude with this bit of convection, and look at the Yucatan storms, they are going towards the two blobs.

[tolakram]

I know it's possibly nothing, but I'm going to continue to watch that little "spin up/convection" just east of Brownsville.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

Look lower at the shortwave to see low level stuff. Some interesting swirls there, and it looks like convection is re-firing near the llc.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

[srainhoutx]

Watching an area roughly 24N 93W via IR CH2 Loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

[tailgater]

10 pm TWO
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MINIMAL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.

[Wx_Warrior]

EWG...Ain't happenin'...This is not going to be anything major for the States....I dont want any crow either!

[Stormcenter]

You just had to know this (refiring of convection) was going to happen to 94L.
It should be an interesting day tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[MWatkins]

So many times we have seen this...a system will shed the diffuse convection then come back with a strong burst that sets the thing off. Michelle in 01 did this...Lilly and Isidore did too...and I am concerned the same thing is happening now.

Unfortunately this does not look like a drift into Mexico as a weak TS deal. I have the feeling this one is going to cause a lot of stress in the states during the next several days. This could sit in the BOC for a while...

MW

[Chacor]

Didn't see this posted...

WTNT03 KNGU 242000
UNCLAS//N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT GOMEX 242000Z SEP 07//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N, 92.5W TO 23.5N, 95.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA, OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 350NM SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011MB AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (85F/30C). MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 252000Z
SEP 2007.//

[Kerry04]

So many times we have seen this...a system will shed the diffuse convection then come back with a strong burst that sets the thing off. Michelle in 01 did this...Lilly and Isidore did too...and I am concerned the same thing is happening now.

Unfortunately this does not look like a drift into Mexico as a weak TS deal. I have the feeling this one is going to cause a lot of stress in the states during the next several days. This could sit in the BOC for a while...

MW

What do you think will become of 94L and do u think it will still go into Mexico?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

due to the small window of expected favorable upper level
conditions prior to landfall, i would speculate at most a
tropical depression.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[N2FSU]

Convection really starting to fire over the center now: