Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Cyclenall]

Yes, it was isabel. Dog 1950 was also one. But they are very rare. In out near 40-50 west the TCHP could not support one.

That's why if you want a category 5 hurricane, you don't want a fish because the chances are so low. Isabel was not a fish either too but could have been given it's location.

It seems my %'s are catching on!

[CrazyC83]

Yes, it was isabel. Dog 1950 was also one. But they are very rare. In out near 40-50 west the TCHP could not support one.

That's why if you want a category 5 hurricane, you don't want a fish because the chances are so low. Isabel was not a fish either too but could have been given it's location.

It seems my %'s are catching on!

Cat 5 fishes are very rare; there are only three known (Dog, Easy and Cleo). Had there been a ridge over the Mid-Atlantic (instead of over Atlantic Canada), it would have forced Isabel northeast and that would have been a Cat 5 fish...

[Sanibel]

Geesh guys, let this become a TS first.

[TheEuropean]

(I also think Carrie 1957 was a Cat 5 in the open Atlantic)

I don't think that Carrie was a Cat 5, but it was very near Cat 5 with max winds up to 155mph.

The german sailship "Pamir" sunk in the hurricane on Sep. 21st. A few days ago many people here in germany remember the 80 deaths on the ship 50 years ago.

[njweather]

Invest 96L, a.k.a, Tropical Low "Tip".

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A typhoon tips like hurricane could never form in the Atlantic. To much shear and not enough warm water....In fact this system if it does not become more compact could become a top end system for the Atlantic for size.

[RL3AO]

Tip wouldn't fit very well in the Caribbean or the GOM and thats the only place it could approach 870mb.

[N2FSU]

Here is a great WV loop to show the flow out ahead of this developing system:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

I do not understand your statement about a tip not being possible in the Atlantic. The reasons you gave just do not make sense.

A tip sized storm could form if there is a large anti-cyclone or interacting with a trough. Wilma was not exactly small when it was east of the Bahamas

[RL3AO]

a storm with TS winds extending 1300 miles could fit in the Caribbean?

[fci]

Matt,

I do not understand your statement about a tip not being possible in the Atlantic. The reasons you gave just do not make sense.

A tip sized storm could form if there is a large anti-cyclone or interacting with a trough. Wilma was not exactly small when it was east of the Bahamas

Derek:
When was Wilma EAST of the Bahamas?
It went between Jupiter and Grand Bahama and never got exactly east of them.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt,

I do not understand your statement about a tip not being possible in the Atlantic. The reasons you gave just do not make sense.

A tip sized storm could form if there is a large anti-cyclone or interacting with a trough. Wilma was not exactly small when it was east of the Bahamas

I'm not talking about a system that has a high pressure to its north, as its becoming extratropical like Wilma. I'm talking about a system that is as strong and big as Tips forming over the Atlantic. In which case I think it would be pretty hard, the western caribbean or maybe the gulf has the sst's/tchp to suppor the strength. If it tryed to form over the gulf of Mexico, it would suck in dry air from land. In which would kill its chances of becoming a system like Tips, on the other hand the Caribbean, it might have a better chance. But also the Caribbean is not big enough to allow the system to grow to the size; with the inflow going over Cuba,Hati. East of the islands or north of them would be the place I would watch. But north of 25 north you have shear that is normally in place. Maybe if the big Anticyclone forms, but would it be able to gain the strength and overall size?

[Cyclenall]

We have to remember that Tip was NOT at it's largest when it was at peak strength.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Come on baby lets see an upgrade...11 PM is coming up
and so is that nice upgrade. I llove it when the action
goes crazy. I hope 97L becomes a tropical storm and hits
florida...
and I hope 96L becomes a big hurricane that would be so
awesome.

[Derek Ortt]

Wilma was east of the Bahamas after it flattened Grand Bahama Island

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wilma's tropical storm force winds over me were AWESOME. that
was the last time I had a REAL storm besides alberto and barry.

Of course the damage was horrible, but WILMA was such an
AWESOME storm I loved watching those winds howl.
Holy Crapp What a Magnificent event!!!!

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 36.2W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 36.2W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.6N 38.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.2N 41.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.8N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.5N 47.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.3N 50.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 36.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

TD 12 is here.

[weatherguru18]

There are a handful of people who claim on the weather forum on khou that it WILL be upgraded at 10pm our time. They are certain of this. Can anybody verify?

[Sanibel]

Ah, this system is doing some weird structure stuff. I'm unsure if it is changing form to strengthen or having organization problems.