Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a depression to me. A huge one at that, once this gets whined up this might be a huge hurricane...I'm talking about 80-90 nmi wide area of hurricane force winds with 230 with the tropical storm force. Floyd like.

[cycloneye]

24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.0/2.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Waiting for the 11 PM Advisory now.

[Gustywind]

24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.0/2.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Waiting for the 11 PM Advisory now.

TD seems credible with these T Numbers

[GeneratorPower]

Invest 96L, a.k.a, Tropical Low "Tip".

[Thunder44]

24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.0/2.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Waiting for the 11 PM Advisory now.

I got T2.5:

24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.5/2.5 96L

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.0/2.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Waiting for the 11 PM Advisory now.

I got T2.5:

24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.5/2.5 96L

Thats right

[cycloneye]

Oh they updated it now to TS T Numbers.

[Cyclenall]

NRL now has this as 12L.NONAME. It's here!!

[AnnularCane]

NRL now has this as 12L.NONAME. It's here!!

Still says invest.

If any of them should be a "noname", it's this one. Where is the justice?

[Brent]

NRL now has this as 12L.NONAME. It's here!!

I thought that is 97L.

I notice 96L and 97L are both gone from NRL, so could we see two TD's at 11?!

[Thunder44]

NRL now has this as 12L.NONAME. It's here!!

Still says invest.

If any of them should be a "noname", it's this one. Where is the justice?

I see 12L.NONAME for this invest now, but it seems that NRL is having some site issues now. Wait for the models to come out to confirm.

[MWatkins]

Just checked ATCF...96L is going to be TD12...not sure about the other two systems yet.

MW

[Thunder44]

Just checked ATCF...96L is going to be TD12...not sure about the other two systems yet.

MW

I just saw it on the 0z models as well:

340
WHXX01 KWBC 250043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE (AL122007) 20070925 0000 UTC

[Brent]

Yep, when you click on 12L.NONAME you get 96L.

Oh well, back to watching TV.

[canegrl04]

Unless strong ridging pushes this more WNW before it completely fishes,this will be a hurricane the US or Carribean won't have to worry about(my amature opinion)

[AnnularCane]

OK, NOW it's a noname. 97L seems to have disappeared, for now. Looks like somebody got confused over there.

[Thunder44]

340
WHXX01 KWBC 250043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE (AL122007) 20070925 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 0000 070925 1200 070926 0000 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 35.7W 10.8N 38.5W 11.8N 41.4W 12.8N 44.7W
BAMD 9.9N 35.7W 10.4N 37.9W 11.0N 40.1W 11.7N 42.4W
BAMM 9.9N 35.7W 10.6N 38.2W 11.3N 40.7W 12.0N 43.4W
LBAR 9.9N 35.7W 10.7N 38.4W 11.3N 41.4W 12.0N 44.4W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000 070930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 48.0W 16.9N 53.6W 18.7N 57.1W 20.2N 58.4W
BAMD 12.9N 44.7W 16.6N 48.4W 20.6N 50.2W 24.3N 50.6W
BAMM 13.1N 46.0W 16.0N 50.5W 18.8N 53.4W 21.4N 55.0W
LBAR 13.0N 47.2W 15.9N 51.3W 19.9N 53.2W 23.0N 54.7W
SHIP 68KTS 77KTS 81KTS 82KTS
DSHP 68KTS 77KTS 81KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 35.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 32.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 30.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[GeneratorPower]

These runs take the system almost immedately WNW. It's moving rather due W right now.

[Coredesat]

THIS is 12L, according to the ATCF file:

AL, 12, 2007092500, , BEST, 0, 99N, 357W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

THIS is 12L, according to the ATCF file:

AL, 12, 2007092500, , BEST, 0, 99N, 357W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE

Tropical Depression 12 YES! Finally some good action out in the tropics.