Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

There's a heck of a lot of energy in the deep convection to the south and east of this system.

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

buoy down to 1009MB and dropping fast

[Sanibel]

Structure looks like it has gotten worse.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on what i'm seeing on the visible loop..it looks like the "center" is trying to relocate further NE under the deeper convection. Any chance that this is actually happening or is possible?

[ROCK]

Based on what i'm seeing on the visible loop..it looks like the "center" is trying to relocate further NE under the deeper convection. Any chance that this is actually happening or is possible?

I cant tell EWG....I think maybe the swirl to the NE is in the mid-levels.....while the LLC is displaced to the SW still......I dont know though it could be.....

[Sanibel]

I see that too but am not sure if that weak spiral shooting out to the west from under the convection is the center - whether the center is elongated with that weak center as the western edge - or whether the center has relocated as you see it. I'm not sure.

[ROCK]

I see that too but am not sure if that weak spiral shooting out to the west from under the convection is the center - whether the center is elongated with that weak center as the western edge - or whether the center has relocated as you see it. I'm not sure.

well if it did relocate, we should know more tonight as the convection should explode over to the NE.....if it is where it went that is...

[Terry]

There has been a persistent fetch of moisture training out of the Yucatan since before 93 made landfall. It just won't go away and from a very non-meteorLOGICAL point of view, it seems like something has to develop.

[ROCK]

OK....watching the vis loop over and over again... ......(doing that a lot lately)

I have a feeling either 1) it did relocate further NE or 2) it pulled a Chris and was decapitated......

not sure which though.....

[mightyerick]

It is going to nowhere, It has no enough time to develop...

[mightyerick]

a very odd thing:
Wunder Blog has 96L and 97L as tropicla depression
Look at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Hurric ... amp=200709

the last section in 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season summary

[CYCLONE MIKE]

How can there not be any chance for this to not move north. A front is supposed to drop down through south la on thursday. Would that not turn the sterring currents out of the sw out ahead of the front and bring this system with it?

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 242000Z SEP 07//
WTNT03 KNGU 242000
UNCLAS//N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N, 92.5W TO 23.5N, 95.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA, OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 350NM SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011MB AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (85F/30C). MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 252000Z
SEP 2007.//

[mightyerick]

Infrared shows this thing dissipating.

[Thunder44]

Infrared shows this thing dissipating.

The convection may be diminishing, but the low is still there.

[wxman57]

Surface obs don't indicate any reformation of the low to the NE. The low is very close to the SW Gulf buoy, as evident by the 1008.9mb pressure and NW wind. It's not impossible that the center could reform farther north if the shear continues, but I think as the shear abates the convection will re-fire over the LLC tonight/Tuesday:

[lrak]

what if rapid intensification occurred? Would it have an affect on its speed or movement?

[Ed Mahmoud]

what if rapid intensification occurred? Would it have an affect on its speed or movement?

You want surf, right? A semi-stalled tropical cyclone in the BOC should eventually do wonderful things for the South Texas surf.

[lrak]

yes....ssss

[Dean4Storms]

We do have a circulation to the NE, but it appears to be mid to UL and could be the result of shear. The LLC/Low looks exposed and unorganized.