Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

This one looks like it will beat the shear if it doesn't last too long. Way different in intense structure and depth than Ingrid (head start). Sets up scenario of big storm that forms further west.

[HurricaneRobert]

The size would limit it's potential to intensify quickly, right? Last year's Florence came from a very big wave and took a long time to get going. Or did it just appear huge because Gordon was hiding in it's convection?

[Cyclone1]

The size would limit it's potential to intensify quickly, right? Last year's Florence came from a very big wave and took a long time to get going. Or did it just appear huge because Gordon was hiding in it's convection?

Well, you gotta look at Wilma, Gilbert, and Forrest. All large storms that inenified very fast. Size can affect how fast a storm strengthens, but in the end it all depends on upper level conditions. And yes, Florence was about 800+ miles across, VERY large.

PS: I'm a category 4 now!

[cpdaman]

wilma was not large till AFTER it left the yucatan

this thing is gonna be a Wave maker at the least, east coast surfers are waxing up their boards for this one, hopefully a slow moving fish

but this is more impressive to me than many of the named system's (the tropical storms) already!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

[JTD]

The latest model runs on Weatherunderground (just checked) are literally screaming fish. I was surprised to some extent. I don't see this affecting anyone, looks like a clear-cut recurve.

[cycloneye]

The Latest

[JTD]

I would be willing to bet that the 11 p.m. NHC track (assuming that the TWO was indeed indicating that the NHC will initiate advisories at that time) shows a clear-cut recurve.

[mightyerick]

Mah Gosh!!!! Wunder Blog has 96L and 97L as tropicla depression
Look at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Hurricaneblast/comment.html?entrynum=155&tstamp=200709

the last section in 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season summary

[fci]

Mah Gosh!!!! Wunder Blog has 96L and 97L as tropicla depression
Look at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Hurricaneblast/comment.html?entrynum=155&tstamp=200709

the last section in 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season summary

They're main page (including the front) still have Invests 96 and 97.
Is Wunder Blog someone's blog and it is their opinion?

I use Weather Underground all the time and only look at the Jeff Master's blog.

What is Wunder Blog??

[mightyerick]

Wunder Blog is a strange site I found.
I dont know who they are...

[BobHarlem]

I"m curious why are people calling this a depression now? Dvorak and the Water Vapor loops don't show it that organized.

[Frank P]

this thing is pretty large looking at it tonight vis the IR loops.... certainly has a pretty good rotation with it also... to me by far the most impressive of all the invests ATM...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-ir2.html

[Brent]

I think 96L will be a TD at 11, but I don't know why they are calling it one now. NRL, the models, the NHC, nothing has called it that. If 97L were a TD, then there would be a statement out since it's affecting the islands now. They would not wait.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am sure it will curve off to the north for a while, but isn't the ridge supposed to build back in later this weekend early next week. This has me worried about a bend back to the west. Any thoughts.

[CrazyC83]

I think 96L will be a TD at 11, but I don't know why they are calling it one now. NRL, the models, the NHC, nothing has called it that. If 97L were a TD, then there would be a statement out since it's affecting the islands now. They would not wait.

Yep if 94L or 97L is upgraded now, there will be a Special Advisory by 8 pm since they would need to issue watches or warnings. 96L can wait for 11 pm as it is in the middle of nowhere.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the TPC held back on an upgrade because of insufficient convective organization. Recently, a new burst has started nearly directly over the estimated LLC position. The recent QuikSCAT pass largely missed 96L, but the wind barbs' directions (E side) and microwave data over the past ~24 hours indicate we may have a TD. Formative banding features have been well established in all quadrants. Recent imagery supports a compact inner partial "band" around an evident low-level circulation (near ~10.1N and ~34.2W). Here's a recent composite for 96L. I think the system may "trim down" over the next ~48 hours, while the outermost banding feature weakens and compact convection forms over the center.

~2115 UTC NRL composite imagery

GOES IR loop

If the new convective burst continues over the next few hours, it is quite plausible that the NHC will pull the trigger at 11 p.m. EDT.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks pretty well organized with some decent convection. I agree with others
that NHC might upgrade this at 11 PM. But folks that is my opinion it is not
a fact and it is not official.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TPC 8:05pm Discussion

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1010 MB...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1475 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS LARGE SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED...AND WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD BANDING FEATURES. A CURVED BAND OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW
QUADRANT. ANOTHER BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 23:45 UTC

[CrazyC83]

Sounds like TD12 in three hours. Now the waiting for 12L.NONAME.