Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[jhamps10]

Wow! That is one serious tropical low. Depending on how enthusiastic the NHC is a 5:30, I'd be willing to bet on TD-12 by 11 tonight.

well we were all willing to bet that this would be a TD right now, but apartently NHC and it's double standard of not upgrading storms that's further away from land even though it clearly looks like a TD to me.

and BTW, that was not a jab against the NHC, as I appreaciate their hard work, but I'm just looking at my opinion here.

[Cyclone1]

Wow! That is one serious tropical low. Depending on how enthusiastic the NHC is a 5:30, I'd be willing to bet on TD-12 by 11 tonight.

well we were all willing to bet that this would be a TD right now, but apartently NHC and it's double standard of not upgrading storms that's further away from land even though it clearly looks like a TD to me.

and BTW, that was not a jab against the NHC, as I appreaciate their hard work, but I'm just looking at my opinion here.

Like I said, it all depends on the TWO. It's TOO organized for the NHC to just ignore, it'll get an upgrade almost no matter what. Just when is the question.

Just my opinion

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 870 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN ATLANTIC BASIN THAT COULD
BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF
MARTINIQUE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME....THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
LARGE SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$

[Cyclone1]

That's what I'm looking for! I am now willing to bet on 11:00.

[RL3AO]

It is a mix of orange and red.

[cycloneye]

They can upgrade strait to a Tropical Storm tonight,but being in the middle of the ocean,they can hold.

[southerngale]

It is a mix of orange and red.

Are we supposed to know what red says?

[RL3AO]

It is a mix of orange and red.

Are we supposed to know what red says?

Red is: "A tropical depression could form at anytime". To prevent being labeled a wish_caster, I stuck with orange.

[Derek Ortt]

according to that scale, it would be red level 2 as they have said a TD will likely form later tonight, not can form later tonight

[Cyclenall]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 870 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN ATLANTIC BASIN THAT COULD
BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Wow, I have never seen that before in a TWO.

[WindRunner]

Yeah . . . I think this is the first time I've seen them publically announce that they are going to start advisories six hours in advance . . .

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 870 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN ATLANTIC BASIN THAT COULD
BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Wow, I have never seen that before in a TWO.

I've never seen this before either.

AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

[MetroMike]

If the NHC can name Jerry way out in B.F.E. why can't they classify this system?

I mean it is what it is. It does appear that it won't go Poof any time soon if thats what they are worried about. JMO.

[PTrackerLA]

Most impressive wave/low of the year, should be interesting to watch...it's HUGE!

[Brent]

Don't think I've ever seen such strong wording. Defintely a TD at 11 it appears.

[Tampa_God]

I agree w/ everyone else. Certainly this will be classified as a TD by 11 pm. This low is the best I have seen this year so far. It's huge and circulation is flowing greatly.

Off Topic: The wave behind it, does anyone else see a rotation w/ each aswell? Most likely a Mid-Level Low, but still, maybe another invest to look into???

[jaxfladude]

They can upgrade strait to a Tropical Storm tonight,but being in the middle of the ocean,they can hold.

Wow!!!

[wxman57]

If the NHC can name Jerry way out in B.F.E. why can't they classify this system?

I mean it is what it is. It does appear that it won't go Poof any time soon if thats what they are worried about. JMO.

The NHC is typically very slow to upgrade Cape Verde systems because there is plenty of time to do so before they might impact any land areas. Usually they'll wait 12-24 hours after it's clear a TD has formed, just to make sure it won't dissipate. No problem with that. Their job isn't to please S2K forum members by upgrading a system the instant it might be a TD. If this system was in the Gulf of Mexico then that's another story, it would likely have been upgraded this morning or even yesterday because it would be an immediate threat.

I don't know why they bothered with Jerry, other than they talked about upgrading it for days beforehand. Jerry was certainly no threat to anyone. The only threat was that it would dissipate before they got a chance to name it.

[fci]

So, if this develops this far out, at this rather late time of year for a CV storm; how realistic is it that it would NOT take the poleward turn and be a Fish??

I know Dean and his brother Felix did not make the turn but that was way earlier in the season.

Thoughts?

BTW, I agree this thing is H U G E.

[CrazyC83]

I would have declared this TD12 now. That would be one great place to take a Recon into - if it weren't sitting in the middle of nowhere. I don't think fish can fly either...