Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

It still needs one nice burst of convection near the center and its home free. Maybe as soon as 5am or 11am tomorrow.

[punkyg]

Where is the wind shear in this it says 10kts infront of 96L.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[Derek Ortt]

I would not call this a TD... still cannot pinpoint a center. I am getting a location about degree west of the other sat fixes... indicative that the center is a little too broad

[Cyclenall]

Looks like a system that's bombing in the Epac rather then a east Atlantic system. These are the types of systems that form rainbands out of nowhere (Humberto did this) around the system. It's huge too!!

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/rb-l.jpg
I see on the pic in this link that theres some convection building in a small area between the two bands.

[RL3AO]

Is this a hurricane yet?

[cpdaman]

first look, wow what a developing beast

here's hoping it runs into a trough of death at least a few hundred miles off east coast

[canegrl04]

Looks like a system that's bombing in the Epac rather then a east Atlantic system. These are the types of systems that form rainbands out of nowhere (Humberto did this) around the system. It's huge too!!

I heard Dr. Lyons say this is the most awesome looking wave hes seen in quite awhile. If this is future Karen,she may rival Dean and Felix as the biggest monster of the season

[HURAKAN]

If this is future Karen,she may rival Dean and Felix as the biggest monster of the season

Unless it encounters shear!!!

[cycloneye]

Is this a hurricane yet?

Wow!,look at 96L compared to 97L how immense it is.

[KWT]

I have to admit that convective coverage is really impressive, reminds me of one of those large developing typhoons actually. The large size though may mean development is fairly slow. Easily the largest system this season if it gets going, makes Felix and Dean look small.

[punkyg]

Is this a hurricane yet?

Not until the NHC says so.
Aw who am i kidding it sure looks like one with out an eye.

[canegrl04]

If this is future Karen,she may rival Dean and Felix as the biggest monster of the season

Unless it encounters shear!!!

Ah yes.A hurricane's worst enemy . Forgot about that

[Brent]

This thing is HUGE in size.

But I think it's going

[Emmett_Brown]

If this is future Karen,she may rival Dean and Felix as the biggest monster of the season

Unless it encounters shear!!!

Ah yes.A hurricane's worst enemy . Forgot about that

Assuming this continues to get its act together, how strong would it have to get to survive the shear that will be ahead of it? I seem to remember major 'canes with large envelops being a bit more shear resistant, but I am always surprised how disruptive shear can be. I usually think of shear as something that would prevent formation of storms, but usually just hold majors in check, or weaken them only slowly. Any opinions on the amount of shear this one will face?

[cycloneye]

A panoramic view of the three invests.

[chris_fit]

A panoramic view of the three invests.

It's like the size of Texas. Wow!

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and/or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Second % chance of Invest 96L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 95%
Tropical Storm: 90%
Hurricane: 82%
Category 2 Hurricane: 73%
Category 3 Hurricane: 62%
Category 4 Hurricane: Unknown
Category 5 Hurricane: Unknown

This is within it's lifetime, not within a specific time (such as 24-48 hours).

[punkyg]

A panoramic view of the three invests.

It's like the size of Texas. Wow!

*Gasp* i see what you mean!

[Cyclone1]

Wow! That is one serious tropical low. Depending on how enthusiastic the NHC is a 5:30, I'd be willing to bet on TD-12 by 11 tonight.