Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Still sheared.

[Portastorm]

Oh, no denying that (the shear) ... but after looking at the visible satellite you have to admit that if the shear relaxes, this thing will ramp up quickly. It just has that "look" of a tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters 301 PM EDT:

Satellite imagery this morning shows that a new surface circulation has developed in the Gulf of Mexico near 23N 93W, about 350 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. This new circulation has been labeled 94L by NHC this morning. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun forming near the center of circulation, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression by Tuesday. Wind shear is about 15-20 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain 15 knots or below for the next three days. The disturbance is headed west-northwest at less than 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to northern Mexico--and possibly southern Texas--by Wednesday. However, most of the computer models show that 94L may stall before it reaches the coast, then loop erratically in the Gulf for several days. A Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 94L Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

[MWatkins]

TAFB is up to 2.0 at 1745Z...same position fix as SAB.

Looks like a TD to me...

MW

[KWT]

Yeah i think this is pretty close to being a TD now, given its position as well I think the NHC probably will upgrade this to TD12 as well as its current structure (yes its sheared but its not that badly sheared right now) and also as Mike has just said TAFB is now upto 2.0.

[CrazyC83]

How likely is rapid deepening? While I can't see another Humberto, it has more time to work with than he did...

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest visible: (a static image! )



Seriously, instead of hot-linking to government websites, why don't we just upload (by URL) it to sites like ImageShack or TinyPic? Also . . . it is helpful for archiving purposes. For one thing, the image never changes.

[Stormcenter]

I just hope 94L does not pull a Opal type track (not strength).

[whereverwx]

Well, I hope I temporarily ended the discussion. It's better if more people read it, after all.

Here's the latest visible:

[Wx_Warrior]

New 12z EURO doesn't do anything with it...

[lrak]

NHC is doing this just to piss S2K off

[Portastorm]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK CAUSING A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS. THE BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF 1.26
AND A K-INDEX OF 6. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS FINALLY SHOWING SOME RAIN
FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK LOW PERSIST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE.

---------------------------------------------

All I have to say after reading this AFD is ... someone wake these guys up from their siesta! Sheesh.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Here's the latest visible: (a static image! )

Seriously, instead of hot-linking to government websites, why don't we just upload (by URL) it to sites like ImageShack or TinyPic? Also . . . it is helpful for archiving purposes. For one thing, the image never changes.

This is a good idea, but it would help if the images were tagged with the date and time on them for reference....

[lrak]

could this thing really go poof? I'm flying into Houston Wednesday, and was wondering if I should cancel.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB in video says this could stay in Gulf for days, but he says good chance it never hits US. He does predict it will/has developed.

[emeraldislencguy]

I have a meeting at Padre Island this weeknd--how will this efffect the weather there--can some pro met give me thier honest opinion--dont want to fly down and then have to return back--need any imput.

[Portastorm]

New 12z EURO doesn't do anything with it...

Not entirely accurate. The 12z Euro moves the storm westbound into the middle Mexican coast near Tampico on Friday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

could this thing really go poof? I'm flying into Houston Wednesday, and was wondering if I should cancel.

I'd bet a thousand quatloos that either this moves into Mexico in 3 to 4 days, ot if doesn't before, the front comes down, it will accelerate Northeast, and menace someplace between Port Fourchon, LA (where I have boarded helicopters as a passenger) and Tampa, FL.


I'd say 50/50 either scenario, in my very unofficial position. Option 2 would trigger lots of rig evacs and expensive gasoline, so top off next couple of days before the prices rise.