INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

St Lucia and Barbados are both reporting WSW winds at 17 and 21 mph respectively. Pressures are not falling appreciably...so these westerly winds at the surface down there are probably not related to anything going on directly to the east...

MW

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This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. This is my own personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Mike I don't know, those west winds are pretty consistent. Pressure falls can be delayed and could be underway shortly. Big blowup of deep reds now near the "LLC."

Its starting to make a run....

Movement is a very steady NW at 15mph and so at this rate could miss Hispaniola to the east and skim Puerto Rico.

I don't think this is going to be a Caribbean storm...

[HURAKAN]

IMAGES:

[Gustywind]

NRL Site latest:
13,1 N 59,0 W 25kts 1008hpa 1715 UTC

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS WAVE ALREADY ARE REACHING
SAINT LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ALSO MAY
BE REACHING BARBADOS NOW IF THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
EXPERIENCED THERE ALREADY EARLIER TODAY. THE CELLS PRODUCING
THIS PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
54W AND 56W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. IT IS
EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY REACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TOMORROW AS LONG IT MAINTAINS ITSELF AS
IT IS DOING RIGHT NOW. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. RESIDENTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[gatorcane]

someone confirm with me that this invest is clearly looking better than this morning.

I don't think I am seeing things -- it has really blown up over the past several hours.

[HURAKAN]

someone confirm with me that this invest is clearly looking better than this morning.

I don't think I am seeing things -- it has really blown up over the past several hours.

1215Z:


1745Z:

[Gustywind]

TWD 205:

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS WAVE ALREADY ARE REACHING
SAINT LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ALSO MAY
BE REACHING BARBADOS NOW IF THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
EXPERIENCED THERE ALREADY EARLIER TODAY. THE CELLS PRODUCING
THIS PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
54W AND 56W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. IT IS
EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY REACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TOMORROW AS LONG IT MAINTAINS ITSELF AS
IT IS DOING RIGHT NOW. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. RESIDENTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

nhc continues to bullish on this hope no td tonight churning near the islands and the feature is really gaining serious burst of convection on NW course...keep watching it all carib residents don't let your guard down!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[Thunder44]

someone confirm with me that this invest is clearly looking better than this morning.

I don't think I am seeing things -- it has really blown up over the past several hours.

It does look better on satellite imagery than this morning.

[ronjon]

From HPC Final Discussion Today:

SOUTHEAST...
A FRONTAL ZONE HANGS UP OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A MID TO
UPPER CYCLONE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF A TROPICAL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SET UP A PRECIPITATION PATTERN SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED ON THE 20TH AND 21ST WHEN THE SEEDLING TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 MOVED THROUGH. POINTS FOR THE SURFACE LOW WERE COORDINATED WITH NHC.

Hmmm...talking about 97L?

[Derek Ortt]

the convection appears to be associated with an outflow boundary today... not impressed with it at all

[Evil Jeremy]

Derek, what are the chances of this forming, and also the chances of it moving towards SFL?

[Derek Ortt]

I'd say 10-20 percent... only slightly above average

[cycloneye]

So nothing to worrie about in Puerto Rico?

[Derek Ortt]

could get some severe thunderstorms from this and possible tornadoes. There is high wind shear just to the west. Harvey in 1999 produced many tornadoes in a high shear environment over SF

[flwxwatcher]

If the GFS is correct the upper level winds around Florida look to become more hostile in the 5 to 6 day range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_120l.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_144l.gif

[fci]

If the GFS is correct the upper level winds around Florida look to become more hostile in the 5 to 6 day range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_120l.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_144l.gif

Oh I just LOVE those HOSTILE winds that have been protecting us this season!!!

[Sanibel]

Watch red dot IR. Should develop if it doesn't get sheared or crash into any large island.

[Gustywind]

Rain with thunder on Martiniqua right now 0230 pm pressure at 1011hpa winds from nnw at 5 kt 94% humidity
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFF.html

[HURAKAN]