Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

136
NOUS42 KNHC 241815 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-122 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70 (NO CHANGE)
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1630Z
D. 15.5N 63.5W
E. 25/1700Z TO 24/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71 (NO CHANGE)
A. 26/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02JJA CYCLONE
C. 26/0500Z
D. 16.5N 65.0W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. PROBABLE
P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING AT 26/2000Z.

3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR 24/1800Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 24/1300Z. ALL TASKING FOR A SUSPECT AREA IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO CANCELED AT 24/1100Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73 (ADDED)
A. 25/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 25/1345Z
D. 22.0N 94.0W
E. 25/1530Z TO 25/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 74 (ADDED)
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 26/0245Z
D. 22.0N 95.0W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

[Wx_Warrior]

It will not be a Tx/La system

[gatorcane]

hey just thought I'd throw it out there but look what is happening about 400 miles east over the FL straits.

[PTrackerLA]

This looks just as good as any TD we've seen in the gulf all season. Let's see how long the NHC waits this one out.

[KWT]

Interesting that they refer to this system as a cyclone by the time we reach the second recon flight on the 26th.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N93W...ALONG A TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM 19N91W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N95W
IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND FROM
28N TO 29N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Comanche]

It will not be a Tx/La system

Where do you see it going? and why?

[Derek Ortt]

this could possibly move to the SW due to the ridge to the NE. Would be a slow motion though

Do not see this as more than a TS as upper winds are not that favorable

[cycloneye]

24/1745 UTC 22.3N 93.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


Almost a TD.

[Wx_Warrior]

Brownsville area due to trough

[CrazyC83]

If this system and 96L become TD's at the same time, this is TD12 and 96L is TD13, correct?

[punkyg]

maybe but remember 94L was dropped from the nrl/navy so i don't know.

[Hurricaneman]

If this system and 96L become TD's at the same time, this is TD12 and 96L is TD13, correct?

the one that became the invest first would be the first to get a number, so you would be right

[Thunder44]

24/1745 UTC 22.3N 93.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


Almost a TD.

T numbers aren't used to determine a TD. TDs aren't required to have certain sustained maximum wind speed for classification, although NHC hardly initiates advisories on TD with winds less than 30mph. What we need is a closed surface circulation and organized convection near the center.

[Kludge]

JB's going bonkers this afternoon that Miami isn't sending out a recon. He's forcasting "much wailing and knashing of teeth" with 94L before all is said and done.

[bbadon]

24/1745 UTC 22.3N 93.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


Almost a TD.

T numbers aren't used to determine a TD. TDs aren't required to have certain sustained maximum wind speed for classification, although NHC hardly initiates advisories on TD with winds less than 30mph. What we need is a closed surface circulation and organized convection near the center.

And we don't have that now?????

[Thunder44]

JB's going bonkers this afternoon that Miami isn't sending out a recon. He's forcasting "much wailing and knashing of teeth" with 94L before all is said and done.

It's funny that NHC waited until almost noon yesterday to cancel recon. But today decided to cancel it early in the morning. They are probably going to have hard time getting plane out there between now and tomorrow, since the flight crew probably stayed home.

[Thunder44]

24/1745 UTC 22.3N 93.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


Almost a TD.

T numbers aren't used to determine a TD. TDs aren't required to have certain sustained maximum wind speed for classification, although NHC hardly initiates advisories on TD with winds less than 30mph. What we need is a closed surface circulation and organized convection near the center.

And we don't have that now?????

I think you miss the point of my post. I do think it is now a TD, despite the T-numbers.

[bbadon]

[

T numbers aren't used to determine a TD. TDs aren't required to have certain sustained maximum wind speed for classification, although NHC hardly initiates advisories on TD with winds less than 30mph. What we need is a closed surface circulation and organized convection near the center.[/quote]
And we don't have that now?????[/quote]

I think you miss the point of my post. I do think it is now a TD, despite the T-numbers.[/quote]
O yes missed the point and I agree.