Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[lrak]

Looks like Karen to me

same here. I do not understand the NHC reasoning on this system at all.

[artist]

Also, this system will require the CYA method of forecasting

you guys are too much!

this surprised me - it really seems to be getting its act together. What is the with the models? Two different initializations that far apart?

[SCUBAdude]

NWS Mobile said in their discussion this morning to expect the passage of a front on Thurs or Fri. I wonder why that wouldn't catch this system and eventually pull it North and then Northeast?
Whatever the reson I havn't even seen that possibility mentioned once. I kind of thought that was how these things reacted to a front.
SD

[KWT]

Shame that recon isn't going in today, 94L does look pretty decent though convection has only really flared up over the last few hours close to the circulation. Does look good but is probably a little bit away from being a TD, though bet it becomes one before the better looking 96L due to its possible land threat.

[rainyday]

Does this mean they are considering it?


http:// http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[MGC]

Well defined circulation and convection is on the increase with only the western side of the circulation exposed.....looks like 94L is nearly a TC.....MGC

[KWT]

Yeah it doesn't look at all far away from becoming a tropical depression, as i sasid before its a shame that recon isn't going in but there you go can't be helped. Does look a little sheared but not too badly as of now.

[MGC]

We can do without recon today as 94L in not near land and not going anywhere fast. Tomorrow though for sure....MGC

[lamsalfl]

so is Chalmette out of the woods???

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[lrak]

so is Chalmette out of the woods???

the high pressure moving in from the NE should keep it out of your woods.

[LaBreeze]

SW Louisiana woods?

[mattpetre]

I personally wouldn't put much faith in any track models at this point simply because the steering currents are currently very week and this could do anything from getting pushed SSW by the ridge or wait paitently for a trough later in the week and skirt on a path closer to Humberto... IMO too early too tell.

[Derek Ortt]

the only thing keeping this from being a TD is the official word

[Comanche]

derek, where do you see this going at this point? West into Mexico or will it be a TX/LA system?

[KWT]

sure does look like a tropical depression right now Derek, shear does seem to have eased off a little though its not gone as the system still looks a little lop-sided on its N/E side. This has a great chance IMO of being TD12 tonight (this eveing for you guys in the US)

[HURAKAN]

136
NOUS42 KNHC 241815 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-122 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70 (NO CHANGE)
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1630Z
D. 15.5N 63.5W
E. 25/1700Z TO 24/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71 (NO CHANGE)
A. 26/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02JJA CYCLONE
C. 26/0500Z
D. 16.5N 65.0W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. PROBABLE
P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING AT 26/2000Z.

3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR 24/1800Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 24/1300Z. ALL TASKING FOR A SUSPECT AREA IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO CANCELED AT 24/1100Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73 (ADDED)
A. 25/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 25/1345Z
D. 22.0N 94.0W
E. 25/1530Z TO 25/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 74 (ADDED)
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 26/0245Z
D. 22.0N 95.0W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF