Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[HeeBGBz]

I work where some of the hurricane hunters board their animals. One called today and extended the pet boarding time because instead of going home they were being sent to investigate this storminess sometime soon.

I was away from the news and computer all day today. The rains and weather we got today was what I was expecting to get from TD10. It made me wonder if it was coming from the 94L. It had a tropical feel to it. Hard rain and a nice breezyness.

(Sun Sep 23, 2007 9:38 pm)


They may be checking it out...

Do you remember this post from yesterday?

(edit: added the time of the quoted post)

I certainly do... This conversation with the pet person happened about midday yesterday, but I didn't get home and online till later in the evening. This person also said something about being sent to Texas. Do they ever fly out of Texas for hurricane watch?

[vaffie]

looking better and better by the minute. 3/4 wrapped around the center now. the center is also covered by convection. only the southwestern quadrant still relatively cloudless, but that will probably change within the next hour too, it may be a tropical storm by 5 pm.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Derek Ortt]

it would take only a few hours to cause upwelling

In the GOM, the warm waters are very shallow

[fci]

I've been away this morning and am confused reading the thread.

Has 94L moved on shore and this is a new area closer to Texas?

From Jeff Masters:
"A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moved ashore into Louisiana early this morning and is no longer being tracked by NHC as "Invest 94". Long range radar out of New Orleans shows a steady stream of moisture associated with the disturbance continues to flow northwards into Louisiana today. Satellite imagery this morning shows that a new surface circulation has developed in the Gulf of Mexico near 23N 93W, about 350 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun forming near the center of circulation, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression tonight or Tuesday"

Does this area stay as 94L or is it named 98L?

EDIT:
Well at 11:30 94L reappears on the Weather Underground site.
I presume Jeff Masters will revise his blog to indicate reports of its demise were premature.

[southerngale]

I've been away this morning and am confused reading the thread.

Has 94L moved on shore and this is a new area closer to Texas?

From Jeff Masters:
"A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moved ashore into Louisiana early this morning and is no longer being tracked by NHC as "Invest 94". Long range radar out of New Orleans shows a steady stream of moisture associated with the disturbance continues to flow northwards into Louisiana today. Satellite imagery this morning shows that a new surface circulation has developed in the Gulf of Mexico near 23N 93W, about 350 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun forming near the center of circulation, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression tonight or Tuesday"

Does this area stay as 94L or is it named 98L?

This is the first I've heard that it's not ex-94L. They even added a 94L floater this morning. hmmm

[cycloneye]

And even SSD issued T Numbers 1.0/1.0 for 94L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Derek Ortt]

if this can persist, it could be a TD as soon as this afternoon. It is becoming better organized.

However, further development should be slow to occur as upper winds are only marginal at the moment

[Dean4Storms]

94L does look to be getting quickly better organized this morning. NHC better get on top of this one fast as it does appear to me to be drifting NW.

[Sanibel]

Center starting to cover with convection and possible slow down in forward speed - how this translates into track I don't know.

[Sanibel]

it would take only a few hours to cause upwelling

In the GOM, the warm waters are very shallow

94L is over one of the deepest parts of the Gulf. Around 2 miles deep. My atlas says 3300 meters for that point.

[HURAKAN]

It's sad that RECON was cancelled for today.

[Chacor]

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

[Derek Ortt]

ABNT20 KNHC 241509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 945
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME....
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 730 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT COULD
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[marcane_1973]

If it drifts around out there for a couple of more days this could easily become a strong TS or Cat 1 cane.

[HeeBGBz]

That little thin cloud line is swirling around the NW-W-SW side seems to make a complete circulation or so it seems.

[southerngale]

94L is back on NRL.

[Air Force Met]

not a bad thing to keep this over the Gulf or that long

Upwelling could occur, similar to Roxanne in 1995

Roxanne. One of the most frustrating storms to forecast in my career. In the end...it just dissipated because of upwelling.

[Air Force Met]

it would take only a few hours to cause upwelling

In the GOM, the warm waters are very shallow

94L is over one of the deepest parts of the Gulf. Around 2 miles deep. My atlas says 3300 meters for that point.

The waters may be deep...but the WARM waters are not. The depth of 26C water is only 50-75 meters where 94L is.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow this is the first I look at this system and it appears well on its way to becoming a TD. I thought the area looked a little suspicious late last night and I was right! This one could be a threat to south Texas but it looks like the northern GOM will be saved by high pressure.

[mattpetre]

I do believe I was correct in that the conditions are improving to much like what Humberto had; however, I had not noticed yesterday how weak the steering was getting. I'm thinking that this will eventually push into the MidTX coast, but it may be another 2 or 3 days... SWAG alert: within 50 miles of Corpus on Thursday afternoon as a minimal Cat 1.