Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

Watch for a low development in the SW Gulf next 24 hours. I can see a weak low near 22.2N/92.5W. Currently, southerly shear is blowing the convection off to the north, but shear should drop off tomorrow. Could be a very slow mover as indicated by GFS and ECMWF (same area through Saturday). We shall see....

[HouTXmetro]

What areas should be on alert for possible landfall?

[Thunder44]

If you at GOES East water vapor loop here, you can the ULL and trough is now weakening and lifting out of the Western GOM:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Upper-level conditions are becoming more favorable for more significant development in the GOM:

[HURAKAN]

[jrbaytown]

If this thing does develop into a TD or small TS, where do you guys think it'll go. Originally it was forecasted to move towards SE TX/SW LA, but that was as of last Friday or so.

I know it may be an unanswerable question, but you all know more about the steering currents, so I just wanted your opinions.

Thanks,

Ross

[ronjon]

If this thing does develop into a TD or small TS, where do you guys think it'll go. Originally it was forecasted to move towards SE TX/SW LA, but that was as of last Friday or so.

I know it may be an unanswerable question, but you all know more about the steering currents, so I just wanted your opinions.

Thanks,

Ross

Should linger in the BOC for the next 5 days according to GFS and Euro models. May never make US LF.

[Stratosphere747]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007


GULF OF MEXICO...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 89W-94W. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SW GULF. AS OF 24/0900 UTC...THE 1011 MB
LOW WAS NEAR 22N93W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOW
FROM 19N91W TO 25N96W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONG
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BUT THEY COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW IS
ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH ERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE ERN GULF. DEEP MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
84W-96W...BETWEEN THE YUCATAN AND LOUISIANA...OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

[Portastorm]

The latest IR satellite loop indeed shows something around that area (22-93). I have to admit that the area looks more interesting this morning. Low center appears to be moving west-northwest. Whether its one of those swirls we've been tracking or something that will really develop ... I'll leave that to the experts.

Wow, lots going on in the tropics folks, eh?!

[tailgater]

If this thing does develop into a TD or small TS, where do you guys think it'll go. Originally it was forecasted to move towards SE TX/SW LA, but that was as of last Friday or so.

I know it may be an unanswerable question, but you all know more about the steering currents, so I just wanted your opinions.

Thanks,

Ross

Should linger in the BOC for the next 5 days according to GFS and Euro models. May never make US LF.

Since last night when it moved offshore, it looks like the center has moved WNW at close to 10 mph unless it does stall it would make landfall along the upper Mexician coast.

[Starburst]

Morning Disco Houston NWS

DISCUSSION...
RICH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO LA AND SHOWERING SRN LA WITH PRECIP.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TAP FROM CARIBBEAN INTO LA WITH EMBEDDED SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS. ONE CLUSTER CURRENTLY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF GLS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD BE REACHING THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST AROUND 09Z TUESDAY IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. STRONG
SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDING ABUNDANT SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN
GULF BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR BRO COMES
NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN
GULF SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. EVENTUALLY THE RIDGE
OVER MEXICO DOES BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THIS COULD BE OUR
SAVING GRACE. GFS BRINGS A CIRCULATION NW TO AROUND 250 MILES
EAST OF BROWNSVILLE STALLS IT ON WEDNESDAY THEN DRIFTS IT SW
THROUGH SATURDAY AND STILL HAS IT OVER THE EXTREME SW
GULF...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY
WEST STALLS IT OVER THE SW GULF AND THEN LOOPS IT WITH IT STILL
OUT OVER THE GULF AT 84HRS- THURSDAY AFTERNOON GETTING STRONGER.
THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN THE SW GULF TO EXTREME SW GULF AS THE NAM
BUT KEEPS IT DRIFTING WEST NOT THE LOOP-DE-LOOP OF THE NAM THOUGH
BUT DOES GET IT INLAND IN THE EXTREME SW GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO
TO SUM UP THE SCENARIO...SLOW DEVELOPMENT BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE TRACK AND DURATION OF ITS TIME OVER THE GULF.

[Stratosphere747]

The latest IR satellite loop indeed shows something around that area (22-93). I have to admit that the area looks more interesting this morning. Low center appears to be moving west-northwest. Whether its one of those swirls we've been tracking or something that will really develop ... I'll leave that to the experts.

Wow, lots going on in the tropics folks, eh?!

Yeah Porta, I think we have a circulation there but still quite a bit of flow from the S.

Never know about these BOC flare-ups.

[Air Force Met]

Watch for a low development in the SW Gulf next 24 hours. I can see a weak low near 22.2N/92.5W. Currently, southerly shear is blowing the convection off to the north, but shear should drop off tomorrow. Could be a very slow mover as indicated by GFS and ECMWF (same area through Saturday). We shall see....

Looks like a closed low already. I see eastward moving low level cu in the Hi Res Vis Loop

[HURAKAN]

I looks to be organizing pretty well. Surprise, surprise!!!

[lrak]

Could be a TD today. The NASA visible shows alot of improvement since early this morning.

[boca]

Karen might form out of 94L and beat out 96 and 97L in the Atlantic.

[lrak]

Karen might form out of 94L and beat out 96 and 97L in the Atlantic.

I second that statement.

Latest IR shows really high cloud tops forming around the center.

[HouTXmetro]

Looking good.... The scary part is that the steering currents are weak and if this sits too long someone is going to have a problem.

[Blown Away]

Karen might form out of 94L and beat out 96 and 97L in the Atlantic.

You could be right, funny how things change so fast in the tropics. The problem I have is naming a storm "Karen" that just doesn't seem right for a storm name.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: I looks to be organizing pretty well. Surprise, surprise!!!

OK, OK ... HURAKAN ... I'll admit that you've been bullish on this system from the get-go and some of us were skeptical.

Now if you can tell me where it'll go ... then I'll really be impressed!

[hurricanetrack]

What a season- we might end up have a truck load of named storms but only three hurricanes! Of course, two were cat-5s.

Just seems like nothing out of the deep tropics can get going and now, it seems like even activity within the deep tropics can't get going. It's like the season is in a permanent funk. What gives? 94L was pretty much gone and now it's back? What's next?