Lots of Cape Verde Activity so Late?

[gatorcane]

So we have two possible Cape Verde systems moving west under strong subtropical ridging. Is it me or is this a bit late for this kind of development?

Is the date really Sept. 23????

[HURRICANELONNY]

Some years can be shifted late. If you read Grey's Sept-Oct forecast you'll see some reasons why it could be a very active October. Only problem is I got to leave and I don't have that site in my favorites anymore. You can get it at Colorado State Univ site.

[Gustywind]

Some years can be shifted late. If you read Grey's Sept-Oct forecast you'll see some reasons why it could be a very active October. Only problem is I got to leave and I don't have that site in my favorites anymore. You can get it at Colorado State Univ site.

Tkanks a lot interresing , and Mother Nature as always lot of things in store stastistics don't always give reason to the reality show...and keep in mind that we are ALWAYS in September this season has been very amazing with the two cat 5 we have to see more of this, we learn everyday with mother nature

[Sanibel]

First, you're assuming the "strong tropical ridging" is like Dean and Felix. More likely it will break with the huge weaknesses and ULL's that have permeated the west Atlantic lately.

Next, there's a weak environment ahead as far as formation. Ingrid was a good example. I wouldn't jump on these until they moisten better and stack.

[ronjon]

Some years can be shifted late. If you read Grey's Sept-Oct forecast you'll see some reasons why it could be a very active October. Only problem is I got to leave and I don't have that site in my favorites anymore. You can get it at Colorado State Univ site.

CSU's September-October Update:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/sep2007/sep2007.pdf

[gatorcane]

Where is everybody? This is the busiest the Atlantic has been all season and we have two Cape Verde invests that do not appear they will be fish....

[eaglegirl]

Where is everybody? This is the busiest the Atlantic has been all season and we have two Cape Verde invests that do not appear they will be fish....

I'm not anybody important... but, I am here.

I was wondering the same thing.

The Navy is showing 97L, 96L, 94L, 11L Jerry, and 10L NoName up on the Atlantic board:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[KWT]

Probably given up on the season Gatorcane, which is obviously foolish given this is a La Nina year. We've now had 10 named system the same as 2006 and we should get at least 1 NS from the current 3 invests and probably more as well...should still reach 15-16 named storms providing we have a little actvity in November, quite possible given La nina...no early end to the season and as I said on your last previous thread Gatorcane, you just need to be prepared to wait a little while!

STS Jerry will only raise intrest a little, but if 97L or 94L does anything then actvity will rapidly increase on here.

[cycloneye]

Lets see how the ACE goes up with the activity now and in the near future.Potentially,96L could raise the ACE very high,but time will tell.

[gatorcane]

Where is everybody? This is the busiest the Atlantic has been all season and we have two Cape Verde invests that do not appear they will be fish....

I'm not anybody important... but, I am here.

I was wondering the same thing.

The Navy is showing 97L, 96L, 94L, 11L Jerry, and 10L NoName up on the Atlantic board:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

Well there are many I think that since we are almost in October that the threat of US hits will be much lower. In fact I hope this kind of complacency
does not come back to haunt those people. Some people think the season will be over early this year but other say it will go into November.

Hard to say but if this were the beginning of the season this board would be jumping. In fact it is when we start to lower our guard that something
seems to come in out of nowhere.

[jaxfladude]

Hey, leave us: "The season is dead" people alone now....sarcasm off
We just want no more disasters for the USA or anyone else for that matter....

[robbielyn]

other than the two cat 5's in the lower carribean, and the sneaky humberto cane, it has been hard for waves to get their act together d/t the hostile conditions which are still there so I think after all the hype of td 10 I think everyone just said lets wait til we really have something to talk about. We just put all our energy into td 10 and nothing really happened. So when something really looks like it'll hold itself together people will come back. If this thing in the gulf now becomes something all the texans will be here.

[BocaGirl]

Gator,

On a busy Sunday afternoon, I'm guessing that many folks have other things to do besides sit at their computers. If a storm threatens or looks more interesting, the Board will pick up. Over the years, we've seen this time and time again.

One thing though, I don't think it's fair to equate low activity on Storm2K with complacency. The group here is the best informed and least complacent of any group I know.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[gatorcane]

True not here on this board, but I have personally spoken to people here in South Florida who say things like "oh by October the worst is over." Of course not everybody says that but October is really the busiest month for us (September is also a busy month).

It's those hits from the Caribbean that really sneak up on us. In fact South Florida gets hit more from the South and West (Wilma type) than from the east.