Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

From the 11:30 AM TWO:

AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

Lets wait and see if they go later today.

[Steve]

>>...pay more attention to water vapor than...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

And agreed about 97L.

According to some of the global models, wave energy and tropical surge flow (aligned SSE-NNW right now) would be rotating westward over the next few days (say an aim from South Alabama now to South Texas by Tuesday or Wed.). WV shows the most energy with those storms this morning off the AL and MS Coasts (confirmed on long range base loop out of Slidell). http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Hard to say if anything beyond the first few lines of showers/thunderstorms will survive before reaching the coast today as the CH 2 loop shows mostly warming cloudtops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Steve

[jasons2k]

For now I don't see anything with this other than some squalls. The shear is very apparent on the satellite loops. It would not surprise me at all to see it dropped from NRL.

[Thunder44]

From the 11:30 AM TWO:

AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

Lets wait and see if they go later today.

It was scheduled to take off at 12:30pm, so far I've seen no reports. I don't really expect it to fly today.

[southerngale]

From the 11:30 AM TWO:

AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

Lets wait and see if they go later today.

It was scheduled to take off at 12:30pm, so far I've seen no reports. I don't really expect it to fly today.

You're probably right, but it's only 12:08 p.m. right now, so we wouldn't see any reports yet anyway.

[JonathanBelles]

From the 11:30 AM TWO:

AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

Lets wait and see if they go later today.

It was scheduled to take off at 12:30pm, so far I've seen no reports. I don't really expect it to fly today.

You're probably right, but it's only 12:08 p.m. right now, so we wouldn't see any reports yet anyway.

its 1:07 edt, where the reports are, the NHC I believe.

[southerngale]

It was scheduled to take off at 12:30pm, so far I've seen no reports. I don't really expect it to fly today.

You're probably right, but it's only 12:08 p.m. right now, so we wouldn't see any reports yet anyway.

its 1:07 edt, where the reports are, the NHC I believe.

Ah, ok. I thought it might be in the time zone where they took off, which is central.

[Brent]

I don't see any reason to fly down there. It is very obviously not a TD or even close to one. Beginning to think this will not do anything at all.

[cycloneye]

For now I don't see anything with this other than some squalls. The shear is very apparent on the satellite loops. It would not surprise me at all to see it dropped from NRL.

jschlitz,Those words about dropping from NRL,can be replayed from the 90L invest in the GOM,that was gone for a while from NRL,but came back,and the rest is history.

[Thunder44]

its 1:07 edt, where the reports are, the NHC I believe.

Ah, ok. I thought it might be in the time zone where they took off, which is central.

They are actually using UTC time, which is 4 hours ahead EDT and 5 hours ahead CDT.

[WeatherNLU]

Am I the only one looking at the central GOM and going HMMMM..................

[wxman57]

Recon has been canceled for today. Nothing to investigate. Surface analysis indicates a trof axis across the central Gulf, but pressures are relatively high (1014-1017mb). No evidence of any LLC, and squalls remain quite disorganized. Looks like just some rough weather for the NW Gulf lease areas and rain for TX and south LA. Development chances appear low, though the NHC might be inclined to call it a TD if a weak LLC forms tomorrow or Tuesday as it's moving ashore.

[CrazyC83]

What a mess. 96L and 97L (especially 96L) have much better development potential now.

[Brent]

What a mess. 96L and 97L (especially 96L) have much better development potential now.

Agreed... I don't see anything down there.

[Buck]

Fluff.

[HenkL]

Flights for today cancelled:

NOUS42 KNHC 231730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 23 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-121
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71
A. 24/1600,2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 24/1430Z
D. 26.0N 94.0W
E. 24/1500Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72
A. 25/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02JJA CYCLONE
C. 25/0315Z
D. 27.0N 96.0W
E. 25/0430Z TO 25/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z, 24/0600Z AND 24/1200Z
ON THIS SYSTEM CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1545Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 25/1200Z.
II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[lrak]

i thought the center was just emerging into the GOM via the NW Yucatan?

Campeche http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

Merida
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMD.html

very weak but still its there.

Looks Like 90w 21n?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The back side of this tropical wave of squally
weather has been producing some very gusty
SE winds over florida especially in association with
thunderstorms.

[eaglegirl]

WHUS52 KTBW 231817
SMWTBW
GMZ830-231900-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0123.070923T1815Z-070923T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
TAMPA BAY WATERS.

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER...FROM HILLSBOROUGH BAY TO 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COCKROACH
BAY...OR FROM HILLSBOROUGH BAY TO 15 MILES EAST OF TERRA CEIA
BAY...MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OLD PORT TAMPA BY 220 PM.
GANDY BRIDGE BY 255 PM EDT.
TAMPA BAY BY 300 PM EDT.

BETWEEN 145 AND 2 PM EDT...AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS IN BRANDON
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AS THE LINE MOVED IN. STRONGER
WINDS ARE LIKELY AS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE LINE MOVES INTO TAMPA BAY
BETWEEN 230 AND 245 PM...AND BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT LOCALLY HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE REPORT WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY VESSEL DAMAGE
TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2802 8266 2798 8253 2785 8252 2785 8249
2791 8250 2795 8247 2794 8239 2789 8239
2776 8243 2764 8254 2755 8256 2748 8269
2782 8265 2787 8262 2794 8271
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 088DEG 10KT 2784 8242 2774 8237
2755 8237

$$

88

[HURAKAN]