Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Dean4Storms]

Need to keep in mind that the actual center is not going to be where most of the weather/wind will be with this system. I'm here in Destin on the NW side of this now by only 100-130 miles or so and we are getting very little rain and winds only up to 28mph in gusts. Its looks like most of the rain/weather will be far to the east and eventually SE of this storm.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[miamicanes177]

This is most certainly a TS right now. A ton of FL winds in the 45-46kts range. Even with a 75% reduction this is a TS.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is most certainly a TS right now. A ton of FL winds in the 45-46kts range. Even with a 75% reduction this is a TS.

Henkel said he was mixing Flights..

[BigA]

This is most certainly a TS right now. A ton of FL winds in the 45-46kts range. Even with a 75% reduction this is a TS.

I think I saw a column third from the right (surface winds I believe) of 41kts.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at these loops it does "seem" like this (sub-TD 10) is moving
more westward again now.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[jlauderdal]

In all seriousness, I dont think this declaration is need for such a weak system.

The NHC is danged if they do and danged if they don't.

NHC isn't responsible for declaring state of emergency.

[Steve]

>>I dont think this declaration is need for such a weak system.

If you lived in an 8' x 20' aluminum box, you'd probably want to know that at least officials are on top of things. Some of the local parishes will open shelters in more substantial buildings for those who don't want to ride out potential tropical storm conditions from a travel trailer.

>>Derek's track...

Hard to tell what's up with that. There are multiple centers, and I think the northern center that was off of Apalachacola is why he's got his track where he does. If you look at the overall circulation center on the visible floater loop, it's quite a bit to the SW and there is some consolidation going on down there.

Of course that could be a rotating center and not the actual center of circulation. You can see it if you click on the loop link and put in the tropical forecast points and NWS fronts. If you use the zoom feature, you can see that circulation just off to the SW of the red "L" . It looks like the northern center is kind of landfalling now (evidenced in the blowup of convection at the FL coast):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Radar out of the NW Florida station shows both circulations nicely.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Radar out of Tallahassee shows the rotating, 'landfalling' center.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes



Steve

[carversteve]

Ok..could be just me or does this thing look better organized this afternoon..i know they came out and named it sub-tropical dep. 10..but it sure looks better than that...any comments..just my opinion and is by no means the view of this board!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[BigA]

Hard to tell what's up with that. There are multiple centers, and I think the northern center that was off of Apalachacola is why he's got his track where he does. If you look at the overall circulation center on the visible floater loop, it's quite a bit to the SW and there is some consolidation going on down there.

If the southern center predominates, its got 12-18 more hours over water. It does look like the overall spin is more to the south, and the thing off the Panhandle is a little vortex.

[jlauderdal]

Ok..could be just me or does this thing look better organized this afternoon..i know they came out and named it sub-tropical dep. 10..but it sure looks better than that...any comments..just my opinion and is by no means the view of this board!!

its a little more scientific to classifying systems than how it looks but yes it looks alright as compared to yesterday when there were a number of posts calling the system a waste of time, etc. i remember two days a number of posts talking up the ull of fort myers and how nhc was avial was all wrong with his discussion. hopefully this was a good learning experience.

[chadtm80]

[jasons2k]

Center on Radar:

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

1-hour rainfall

[jasons2k]

Base Velocity:

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[DESTRUCTION5]

FL's Rainfall prayers about to be answered with Soon to be Jerrys tail finally filling in the Dry air slot..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[cpdaman]

kinda looks like the circulation around "10" is drawing up that moisture and convection from the caribean. FL could get a nice dousing yeah but than my softball game will be rained out noooo