Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[ROCK]

I've thrown-up my hands. I don't know what to think anymore....this whole system has me baffled. I thought I had a good handle on this yesterday morning when I first floated the theory that over a couple of days the ULL would transition to a warm core tropical low. Since then, it seems like nothing but chaos has ensued, especially this evening. Now some (Dr. Lyons) are saying the ULL has detached and is moving north?? In the GOM?? Not that I disagree...but what next?? I thought I had seen it all. And how many lows is this thing going to generate before it finally, if ever, stacks?? I have come SO close to throwing in the towel on this, declaring it dead, and moving on. But something tells me I need to keep watching, even if it turns to be the bust of '07...just like Chris last year.

Yep, this reminds me of Chris's decapitation over Hispa......looking good for awhile and then wham gone.....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The winds are packing a punch- looking at that image you
wouldn't think so but the winds have been sustained along
the coast of west florida at 25-30 kts with gusts higher.

Now the thing is these squalls may be producing tornadoes...
a local met fox13 channel was showing possible rotation on
radar somewhere near sumter county I think.
So people be on the lookout for tornado warnings tonight.
Also if this south wind keeps up at 25-30 kts it could
easily cause some tidal surge of 1-2 feet. Tidal surges
have happened many times with past storms in this location
and with these winds near the coast.

Fox 13 Met just confirmed at 1020 PM (10 minutes ago) that
a wind gust was recorded at 62 mph in a band that moved
over pasco county. 62 mph- that's pretty intense- though those
winds are kind of the exception.

Mostly 25-30 kts is the norm. Though these squalls could easily
produce winds gusting over 40 mph IMO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Latest:



80 pages later and 93L still looks like this!!!

Convection bands flaring up on the western side of the southern low
and that same low has some convection bands flaring up on the
eastern side. All that is needed is for convection to develop
on the south side and fill in a little on the north and this
low will intensify into a tropical system.

We are almost there folks! Just need some convection on the
southern side!!!

And note that there is new convection on the east side-
folks this thing is getting that convection wrapped around
so this is clearly progressing into a tropical system.

[Stormcenter]

Latest:



80 pages later and 93L still looks like this!!!

Convection bands flaring up on the western side of the southern low
and that same low has some convection bands flaring up on the
eastern side. All that is needed is for convection to develop
on the south side and fill in a little on the north and this
low will intensify into a tropical system.

We are almost there folks! Just need some convection on the
southern side!!!

And note that there is new convection on the east side-
folks this thing is getting that convection wrapped around
so this is clearly progressing into a tropical system.

Okay now which low are you referring to. Can you please mark it
on you satellite image.

[Vandymit]

I am going to watch some TV and head to bed. Nothing happening here with this distrubance. To all the people I disagree with. . .Keep up the hope, one day. Just won't be this one.

[ROCK]

Take a look at the current low level convergence map.......you will see most is in the Central GOM with upper air divergence with the ULL......interesting indeed......

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html
_________________

[BensonTCwatcher]

You know what, I hope this thing stays like it is where it is for a while longer. That convection getting thrown up on the east side is wrapping much needed moisture into the carolinas. This is the longest stretch of rain we have had since lats winter.

[bwhorton2007]

our governor here in louisiana declares state of emergency.

[gatorcane]

Latest:



80 pages later and 93L still looks like this!!!

Unbelievable isn't it. There have been other cases this year where pages and pages and pages have been devoted to something that never happened, to invests that are no worse than a cluster of showers and thunderstorms that develop in my backyard in the afternoon in the summer. Of course that is what makes this the board interesting for the 90% of the time nothing happens in the Atlantic Basin

Could you imagine if something "real" was actually heading for the US (an actual REAL tropical system???)?

I really think this board would go under.

[rainydaze]

80 pages later and 93L still looks like this!!!

81 pages later and I still haven't got any rain! Just a few light sprinkles a couple times today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

our governor here in louisiana declares state of emergency.

For a weak extratropical low pressure system?

[JessRomero]

Really lol u got to be kidding me....

[sea oat]

Even a tropical storm can do a lot of damage. http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/01/flood/index.html

[RL3AO]

Nope. Here is the link.

http://www.journalgazette.net/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070920/APN/709201003&template=apart

[Ptarmigan]

I think 93L will be subtropical or tropical at most. I don't think it has a chance to become a hurricane, although anything could happen. And yes, TS can do a lot of a damage, like Allison in 2001.

[bwhorton2007]

yeah i know matt i'm beginning to wonder if we are being left in the dark on something
i hope not as you guys have done a great job up till this point on info.

[JonathanBelles]

Tornado Watch issued for Fl, counties listed:
ALACHUA BRADFORD COLUMBIA
DIXIE GILCHRIST HAMILTON
LAFAYETTE LAKE LEVY
MADISON MARION ORANGE
PUTNAM SEMINOLE SUMTER
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the northern Low wxman57 found is starting to develop, and you can see convection trying to form near it. Could it become a depression or tropical storm before landfall. I personally think its possible, at the same time the southern low will head west or west-northwest through the gulf. So both models where right with developing low pressures last night. I think the southern one will be the one that could get interesting, but I would not issue emergency for anything before hand; that is for when something really does happen. At least it should be.

[bwhorton2007]

tornado watch finally! as if these folks haven't had their hands full already

[creole_lady]

I'm living in a fema trailer in New Orleans. My neighbor just gutted his house. If we even get a bad thunderstorm, we could be in trouble. The governor did that to start a plan to get people out the trailers into shelters. The debris in the streets here are dangerous.