Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

jhamps10 · #341 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:37 pm

18 hour 200 winds:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018m.gif
shear lessens some

jhamps10 · #342 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:38 pm

18 hour surface:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018m.gif

Wx_Warrior · #343 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:42 pm

36hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_036m.gif

jhamps10 · #344 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:42 pm

24 hour surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024m.gif

36 hr surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

24 hr 200 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

36 hr 200 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036m.gif

Wx_Warrior · #345 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:43 pm

Latching on to East Coast low...I dont buy

jhamps10 · #346 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:44 pm

things I've noticed thus far:

1. It intilizes low on wrong side of the state of Florida, Should be WSW of Naples, and not East of Cape Canaveral.

2. Shear remains low in this run, scary low.

3. it looks like no major changes from 12z run in position of the low.

#347 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:45 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Latching on to East Coast low...I dont buy

It actually jumps the low to the SW coast of Florida...so whatever low you want to choose, gfs has it off the sw coast of Florida on this run and STILL moves it NW

12 HR

Wx_Warrior · #348 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:45 pm

GFS won a round earlier this season so you never know... :?:

jhamps10 · #349 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:46 pm

48 hour surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

200 mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

#350 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:48 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Latching on to East Coast low...I dont buy

It actually jumps the low to the SW coast of Florida...so whatever low you want to choose, gfs has it off the sw coast of Florida on this run and STILL moves it NW

12 HR

Yeah, when I first saw 00 hours, I figure well this is junk. Then it lost the low and develops the low off the SW Florida Coast tomorrow so it may be right.....I guess we'll see.

Wx_Warrior · #351 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:49 pm

A little more west at this point

jhamps10 · #352 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:52 pm

54 surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

60 surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

jhamps10 · #353 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:53 pm

54 200 mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054m.gif

60 200 mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif

#354 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:54 pm

For a second run in a row that other low appears comming out from the NW Caribbean.

#355 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:For a second run in a row that other low appears comming out from the NW Caribbean.

Shhhhhh.....don't say that too loudly.

**The 18z NAM also showed it.

jhamps10 · #356 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:For a second run in a row that other low appears comming out from the NW Caribbean.

yes, indeed although in this run that low is closer to the Yucatan.

Wx_Warrior · #357 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:56 pm

New Orleans yet again...Still believe it latched to the EC low

jhamps10 · #358 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:57 pm

72 hrs, over New Orleans metro:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

no low, but man there has to be something looking at that precip area.

Extremeweatherguy · #359 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:57 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:GFS won a round earlier this season so you never know...

The EURO won that same round too. However, they are not quite on the same page this go around and it is anyone's guess as to which model (the EURO or GFS) will win out in terms of track. Will be a TX or LA storm? Time will tell..

jhamps10 · #360 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:58 pm

72 hour 200 mb, although this is now inland.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

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