Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[jwayne]

I made an animation of the 12Z Euro valid 0, 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours and did the same with the 12Z GFS. Plotted are isobars to the nearest 1/2 millibar in purple. The yellow lines are 500mb heights to the nearest 10 meters. Not really a lot of difference, just that the GFS moves the center northwest initially, right into what the GFS predicts will be a weakness in the ridge. Euro sees no such weakness.

I see the NHC just initialized the BAM models way up at 28N/80W. I doubt a center will form up there, but we'll see by tomorrow.

Euro:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/euroanim.gif

GFS:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gfsanim.gif

wxman, you have any thoughts on strength this thing will attain?

[AJC3]

Just a passing thunderstorm. Winds offshroe in the area are 5-15 kts. Hardly any pressure gradient across the buoys/ships/coastal obs.

Geez...ya think? I've only been on shift here 8 hours here Chris. Of course, it's passing squalls. And of course the pgrad is weak...the vortex is embedded within a larger inverted trough. Pgrad is much stronger offshore northeast FL...always has been. The vortex is still quite vigorous on our 88D. And pressures here at the office are still falling. It's not dissipating. It's weak....but it never was strong.

[Wx_Warrior]

Explain skysummit...

[skysummit]

Well, it looks like we have two little areas to watch now. Let's all remember back a couple days ago...which model showed an area in the southeastern gulf and a smaller piece of energy going north? The Canadian!!! LOL

[wxman57]

Just a passing thunderstorm. Winds offshroe in the area are 5-15 kts. Hardly any pressure gradient across the buoys/ships/coastal obs.

Geez...ya think? I've only been on shift here 8 hours here Chris. Of course, it's passing squalls. And of course the pgrad is weak...the vortex is embedded within a larger inverted trough. Pgrad is much stronger offshore northeast FL...always has been. The vortex is still quite vigorous on our 88D. And pressures here at the office are still falling. It's not dissipating. It's weak....but it never was strong.

The eddy/vortex is elongating WNW-ESE now as it moves into the coast. Circulation isn't as evident. I didn't mean to imply there were no squalls up there to the north of it.I just don't believe that vortex will be the focus for TC development. I'm not sure why the NHC initialized the models way up at 28N, perhaps just to see what results they'd get from that position. But I believe the focus for development will be off the SW peninsula closer to the upper low as it weakens. NHC will probably be shifting the initial position down there tomorrow. Only 8 hours at work so far? I started at 5 and go to 5, then I work from home until 10 or 11.

[TTheriot1975]

WX57....It seems the Euro is shifting back south again. Do you think it will shift north again before it is over with? Also what about the others..do you see the shift today to the left? I live in SE Texas...I am trying not to worry too much..but Rita was one that changed soo fast on us.

[Tireman4]

Goodness gracious. Why the long hours? I work from 9 to 7.... , then I teach from 7 to 8:20. You work harder than I do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just a passing thunderstorm. Winds offshroe in the area are 5-15 kts. Hardly any pressure gradient across the buoys/ships/coastal obs.

Geez...ya think? I've only been on shift here 8 hours here Chris. Of course, it's passing squalls. And of course the pgrad is weak...the vortex is embedded within a larger inverted trough. Pgrad is much stronger offshore northeast FL...always has been. The vortex is still quite vigorous on our 88D. And pressures here at the office are still falling. It's not dissipating. It's weak....but it never was strong.

I just don't believe that vortex will be the focus for TC development. I'm not sure why the NHC initialized the models way up at 28N, perhaps just to see what results they'd get from that position. But I believe the focus for development will be off the SW peninsula closer to the upper low as it weakens. NHC will probably be shifting the initial position down there tomorrow. Only 8 hours at work so far? I started at 5 and go to 5, then I work from home until 10 or 11.

When I was an MWD logging engineer in the Gulf of Mexico, when we were rigging up for a job, it wasn't unusual to go 36 hours straight without sleep. And, unlike working for the government, with no lay-offs and a guaranteed pension, when oil hit $10/barrel, I was laid off, and my F-150 pick-up was taken away.


Anyway, the further Northeast this forms, the better. For everyone.

[wxman57]

WX57....It seems the Euro is shifting back south again. Do you think it will shift north again before it is over with? Also what about the others..do you see the shift today to the left? I live in SE Texas...I am trying not to worry too much..but Rita was one that changed soo fast on us.

The 12Z Euro actually shifted a bit north, not south. Just a little, though. As for the other models, it all depends on how they're initialized. If you put in a starting lat/lon of 28N/80W then you get a storm into Georgia. Put in 25n/83W and you get TX. We'll just have to wait until the real center actually gets going to have a better handle on where it'll go.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How come nobody ever talks about the JMA global model?

[AJC3]

Just a passing thunderstorm. Winds offshroe in the area are 5-15 kts. Hardly any pressure gradient across the buoys/ships/coastal obs.

Geez...ya think? I've only been on shift here 8 hours here Chris. Of course, it's passing squalls. And of course the pgrad is weak...the vortex is embedded within a larger inverted trough. Pgrad is much stronger offshore northeast FL...always has been. The vortex is still quite vigorous on our 88D. And pressures here at the office are still falling. It's not dissipating. It's weak....but it never was strong.

I just don't believe that vortex will be the focus for TC development. I'm not sure why the NHC initialized the models way up at 28N, perhaps just to see what results they'd get from that position. But I believe the focus for development will be off the SW peninsula closer to the upper low as it weakens. NHC will probably be shifting the initial position down there tomorrow. Only 8 hours at work so far? I started at 5 and go to 5, then I work from home until 10 or 11.

Lucky you!

In any event, I think you'll agree that so far this system has been all about following the forced ascent. The first vortex that formed between GBI and Andros did so under a boatload of H25 divergence. So did the one approaching from the ATLC. The RUC fields show a swath of divergence lifting northward away from the vort...while redeveloping another swath southwestward across Florida and into the GOMEX. Like I said in my other thread...I'm taking the six of one, half a dozen of the other position - contributions of vorticity from the feature just NE of here, and synoptic ascent developing over the gulf. OK, maybe 9-10 of one (synoptic lift) and 2-3 (vorticity) of the other. We'll see.

[TTheriot1975]

WX57, thanks...another thing...on the Euro...what was the intensity at landfall? I know you mentioned something about maybe 911 mb...but for a non weather oriented person like me..what does that relate to in strength?

[crownweather]

Notice that the 12Z GFS ensemble (AEMN model) is further west than the operational GFS model, more in-line with the European model.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_93.gif

[crownweather]

If it truly was 911 millibars in pressure as wx57 mentioned, it would be considered a Category 5 hurricane.

[wxman57]

WX57, thanks...another thing...on the Euro...what was the intensity at landfall? I know you mentioned something about maybe 911 mb...but for a non weather oriented person like me..what does that relate to in strength?

That was a joke I was making, but if the track was toward TX then it would likely be at least a Cat 1 hurricane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Light West winds in keys with falling pressure ( 1008.8 mb and falling)

[skysummit]

Junk already....

18z GFS @ 00 Hours

...well, maybe not. Let's see what happens.

By the way, I'm not posting the run....someone else can do it. I'm posting it on another board.

[Wx_Warrior]

They seem to develop the low on the east side...hard to agree with the GFS...

[Wx_Warrior]

6hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_006m.gif

[jhamps10]

6 hour upper air:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_006m.gif