Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[miamicanes177]

A track similar to Katrina without the intensity.

Models have been missing the intensity this year. Felix for one.

GFS showed Felix as an open wave when it was a category 5 hurricane

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater near you.Whoa,another low enters the picture.

[Stormcenter]

A track similar to Katrina without the intensity.

Models have been missing the intensity this year. Felix for one.

They are not going to miss it with this one because if you are looking
for anything like a Felix type storm then I think you will be disappointed. IMO

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater near you.Whoa,another low enters the picture.

Ya luis...Im on the nasty side if it...haa something else coming?

[Stormcenter]

It looks to me like the GFS is trending eastward somewhat with this run.
I'm starting to see an AL/FL border "possible" landfall if this
develops. Lets see what the other model runs show. IMO

[miamicanes177]

They are not going to miss it with this one because if you are looking
for anything like a Felix type storm then I think you will be disappointed. IMO

GFS can not be used for intensity. Ask Derek Ortt and he will tell you. It showed Felix was an open wave when in fact it was a cat 5. If you even use the GFS at all then only look at the track (and that is not even a good idea). Intensity forecasting is the worst part of forecasting tropical cyclones. Nobody knows how strong or weak this will be.

[Pearl River]

CMC and NAM both show a AL/FL hit. Viewed from the Accuwx site.

[storms in NC]

A track similar to Katrina without the intensity.

Models have been missing the intensity this year. Felix for one.

They are not going to miss it with this one because if you are looking
for anything like a Felix type storm then I think you will be disappointed. IMO

DID I SAY I WAS? NO I just said models have missed the intensity one being Felix. But It could be up to a cat 3 IMO The waters are to warm in the gulf.

[jhamps10]

CMC and NAM both show a AL/FL hit. Viewed from the Accuwx site.

Gee the two laughing stocks show this...

Not buying that track one bit at all!

in fact, I'm not buying the GFS's run with a Katrina like track. I think it will be closer to SW Louisana or even in texas. NOGAPS still shows a texas hit, Euro is a texas hit, and quite frankly I think the GFS is drinking way too much of the NAM cool-aid.

[Stormcenter]

They are not going to miss it with this one because if you are looking
for anything like a Felix type storm then I think you will be disappointed. IMO

GFS can not be used for intensity. Ask Derek Ortt and he will tell you. It showed Felix was an open wave when in fact it was a cat 5. If you even use the GFS at all then only look at the track (and that is not even a good idea). Intensity forecasting is the worst part of forecasting tropical cyclones. Nobody knows how strong or weak this will be.

I understand and I'm not basing my comment on that. I'm basing it on the current atmospheric conditions and what is out there right now.

[Wx_Warrior]

I wouldn't laugh at the GFS my friend. Im not saying its perfect, none are. All have their negatives, including nogaps and euro.

[Pearl River]

Heck, if any of the models are a laughing stock, the NOGAPS leads the pack IMHO.

[storms in NC]

Heck, if any of the models are a laughing stock, the NOGAPS leads the pack IMHO.

Pearl some of the models have it going over the top of you. I have a freind in Amite. So yes I am worried that it could be stronger than they say. I thinking a cat 3 at the most JMO

[Steve]

Well NOGAPS won verification one of the last couple of years, so you can't discount its recent success (not saying anything about it because I don't even know where it's progged).

I still think a Texas hit is in the cards if we're not going to see some type of double storm solution by the weekend. Like I said in the other thread, Wipha came much farther west than progged, and the track moved west each day. It actually is scheduled to go pretty far inland before recurving. That's not to say there can't be a WFL to LA hit where the low rides the backing in ridge (from the NE as all have done in the last month) on a WNW pattern inland. I don't know. But Im not going to discount a Texas solution yet simply because the precedent was set Sunday through yesterday.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

Heck, if any of the models are a laughing stock, the NOGAPS leads the pack IMHO.

Lol...NOGAPS is always doing its own thing

[HouTXmetro]

LLC is trying to form off the SW coast of FLorida under the ULL...if this develops then I'm think LA, or more likely TX.

[Pearl River]

Storms in NC wrote:

Pearl River wrote:
Heck, if any of the models are a laughing stock, the NOGAPS leads the pack IMHO.


Pearl some of the models have it going over the top of you. I have a freind in Amite. So yes I am worried that it could be stronger than they say. I thinking a cat 3 at the most JMO




I noticed that too Storms. A lot of people around here have there eyes looking ese at this time. Lets just hope it's only a rainmaker for those of us who need it.

[Pearl River]

Everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to keep a sharp eye on this one. South Texas to the FL Panhandle IMO.

[Janie2006]

Oh, we're watching 93L. At this point I'm considering quite a number of possible scenarios. While intensity forecasts can be quite tricky, I'd be surprised to see a Category 3 at this point. A Cat 1, OTOH, may be a likely outcome.

[wxman57]

LLC is trying to form off the SW coast of FLorida under the ULL...if this develops then I'm think LA, or more likely TX.

I definitely see that, too. This means the models are being initialized about 120 miles too far north. The low will develop off SW Florida not track across Tampa. And that would result in a farther west track than the current models are forecasting. I 'd point out that the European predicted development off SW Florida between 25N-26N. 00Z European took it to the mid TX coast. GFS may be breaking down the ridge too quickly.