Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

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jhamps10

Re: Re:

#161 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:04 pm

ROCK wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:looks like it makes a landfall over lower plaqumens parish, now, will it follow inland, or follow the coast, slamming the La coast with the right front quad of the storm.



ouch!!! for you LA folks....if that verifies...



ACTUALLY, I am really questioning this run right now, as it hits lower plaqumens, BUT in the next frame, guess where it is????

and it's NOT ANYWHERE in the state of Louisana....

Guesses, anyone......

It backs it up, and has it just off shore of Long Beach, MS!
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=00z GFS rolling in

#162 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:04 pm

Stormcenter wrote:You might need to trash this run (GFS). It does not look probable.


I concur. Seems very strange that north movement. The ridge fractures due to some 500mb energy in the Carolinas- leaving a hole for it to slip in to. Then the ridge fills back in- moving it more west along the coast of LA. I suppose the G-IV mission tomorrow night will help resolve that.

Gotta keep waiting....
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Re: Re:

#163 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:05 pm

ROCK wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:looks like it makes a landfall over lower plaqumens parish, now, will it follow inland, or follow the coast, slamming the La coast with the right front quad of the storm.



ouch!!! for you LA folks....if that verifies...


I guess I will stick to my guns on this one and say I have to
see it to believe it. I also have a hard time believing still if this
does develop it will be nothing more then a sheared system (TS) despite
what the GFS is saying.
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#164 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:08 pm

This season is a sure-fire "see it to believe it" one. At this point, I can agree with you that it could turn out to be a bunch of nothing. But hey, that big "IF" keeps coming up and if all the "ifs" line up just right, someone could have their butt handed to them....again. That's what makes this so fascinating- we never know for sure. Except 2005- once we got to Katrina- we knew that each hurricane was going to be a whopper. This is no 2005- it's more like a drunk cousin to seasons past....outbursts here and there with no rhyme or reason to what the heck is going on....
Last edited by hurricanetrack on Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#165 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:08 pm

Well that's all for me tonight. I will be interested in seeing what the 6z and 12z model runs have to say tomorrow..and then we should probably have a real good idea of potential track by Thursday after this emerges into the GOM and the G-IV missions are flown. As of now though, the GFS definitely continues to flip-flop and I am not buying into it until it shows a similar solution for 3-4 runs in a row.
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#166 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:09 pm

Later! Time to get some rest...we might need it.
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Re: Re:

#167 Postby stormspotter » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:14 pm

jhamps10 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:looks like it makes a landfall over lower plaqumens parish, now, will it follow inland, or follow the coast, slamming the La coast with the right front quad of the storm.



ouch!!! for you LA folks....if that verifies...



ACTUALLY, I am really questioning this run right now, as it hits lower plaqumens, BUT in the next frame, guess where it is????

and it's NOT ANYWHERE in the state of Louisana....

Guesses, anyone......

It backs it up, and has it just off shore of Long Beach, MS!




I don't see what you are saying according to this...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_102l.gif
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Re:

#168 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:16 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:This season is a sure-fire "see it to believe it" one. At this point, I can agree with you that it could turn out to be a bunch of nothing. But hey, that big "IF" keeps coming up and if all the "ifs" line up just right, someone could have their butt handed to them....again. That's what makes this so fascinating- we never know for sure. Except 2005- once we got to Katrina- we knew that each hurricane was going to be a whopper. This is no 2005- it's more like a drunk cousin to seasons past....outbursts here and there with no rhyme or reason to what the heck is going on....


What? You have a drunk cousin? Wow? Interesting!!!

Didnt know that!!! LOL

Back on topic though, I think we need to wait for these flights late tomorrow afternoon. That will solve most of the model issues we are having. I think this one could really be a force to reckon with based on the disappearance of the UL in the GFS tonight. However, it could be on crack (wouldnt be the first time LOL). How does an upper low this strong just "disappear"?
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Re: Re:

#169 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:21 pm

stormspotter wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:
ROCK wrote:

ouch!!! for you LA folks....if that verifies...



ACTUALLY, I am really questioning this run right now, as it hits lower plaqumens, BUT in the next frame, guess where it is????

and it's NOT ANYWHERE in the state of Louisana....

Guesses, anyone......

It backs it up, and has it just off shore of Long Beach, MS!




I don't see what you are saying according to this...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_102l.gif


look at hour 78, then hour 84. not any images after 84.
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#170 Postby shelby » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:25 pm

Hmmmm - I am neither a weatherman or a regular - I have had field alot of calls from relatives on the gulf coast because I told them to monitor the website. So, I ask - please be conservative on your forecast. No offense :cry:
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Re: Re:

#174 Postby bigGbear » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:39 pm

stormspotter wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:
stormspotter wrote:what are these?

forget it, I don't see where the sstem backs up in any frame, but what ever, Goodnite!


As pointed out before it was hours 78 and 84 - before your list here
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#175 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:06 am

The new Canadian is out and it shows unimpressive system moving inland around the FL. panhandle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#176 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:08 am

Stormcenter wrote:The new Canadian is out and it shows unimpressive system moving inland around the FL. panhandle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Beat me to it...yep shows landfall around Pensacola area...
Last edited by Ivanhater on Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#177 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:14 am

It also tries to develop ex-Ingrid. That good ole Canadian never lets us down! LOL
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#178 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:15 am

Need a good laugh tonight after another eventful day!
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#179 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:18 am

FWIW...00z Nogaps shows landfall around Galveston...bit of a northern shift from earlier
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#180 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:30 am

They had a WAY south, south run didnt they? almost comical...
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