Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[mattpetre]

Scary thing is if Ingrid does not recurve and follows 93L into the Gulf maybe next week sometime... I know that's not likely, but could be a really crappy scenario that is not at all impossible.

[CrazyC83]

Scary thing is if Ingrid does not recurve and follows 93L into the Gulf maybe next week sometime... I know that's not likely, but could be a really crappy scenario that is not at all impossible.

So true! That path is wide open now - that would be the Katrina scenario all over again...

[gatorcane]

Ingrid would probably also impact South Florida first should it move WNW

and based on latest SAT data, she is starting to build some convection now around the "LLC"

wow is this going to get interesting

[Frank2]

I don't know - the convection east of the old Ingrid circulation is very distant from it, so, it doesn't seem that impressive to me...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

and, the system east of Florida, while it looks more organized, if it moves westward, is at a latitude that it'll pass over the wider area of North-Central Florida, before reaching the Gulf (if it does), and, would still be close to land at that point, so, as the NHC says, any development would be slow to occur...

P.S. NHC has not updated their satellite page for either area, so, they must not think it very impressive at this time...

[CrazyC83]

What do the models say?

CMC - Redevelops, travels almost due west at least as a tropical storm

GFDL - No development

GFS - No development

HWRF - No development

MM5FSU - Redevelops and stalls out as a tropical storm

NOGAPS - Redevelops and moves out to sea as a weak system

UKM - No development

[hial2]

FWIW, Canadian brings it back in the latest run,and strong..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Not giving up.

[punkyg]

Oh its looking goooood. i just look at a shear map and i see that ex ingrid is
in 20kts of shear. hmmmm
has ex ingrid been in 20kts shear since it dissipated?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[punkyg]

I starting to believe that ingrid will come back, but not as ingrid as maybe
jerry or karen.
does this area have a low with it.

sorry for the double post.

[DESTRUCTION5]

As much as I would love to ignore this thread..I am drawn to the fact that this friggin thing looks good..

[Lowpressure]

As much as I would love to ignore this thread..I am drawn to the fact that this friggin thing looks good..

I was about to post the same thing.

[brunota2003]

I've been watching this area...looks fairly interesting for something under such shear. Are we having a Gabby repeat, where the system just completely refuses to give up, regardless of the circumstances? This year has been weird thus far...

[punkyg]

For some reason i looks like ex ingrid has been in the same spot it did last night.
is it moving at 5mph or something or is it stationary.

[gatorcane]

folks I'm ex-Ingrid may just be the focus instead of 93L

I think this is where she makes her run. She is now in a marginally favorable environment.

I notice the thread saying I think she will be back has been merged to this one.

She may be back folks.

[DESTRUCTION5]

19/1145 UTC 21.1N 64.2W T1.0/1.0 08L

Ingrid gets her Ghost on...

[gatorcane]

any reason why we don't move this to the active tropics form? The NRL has her as an invest and she continues to look more impressive this morning.

[Three Blind Mice]

starting to fire up closer to the presumed LLC, if there is one.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

[HURAKAN]

NRL continues to update Ingrid:

[punkyg]

I love how ex ingrid is staying strong.

[gatorcane]

Wind shear finally relaxing as I expected and she is definitely trying to take advantage of it quickly -- not a good sign