Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Wx_Warrior]

18Z GFS cranking....

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't understand what the difference is then what I described. Unless you believe "eventful"
means a major hurricane. If so, then I don't agree based I what is out there.

No, but a cat 1 or 2 cane is very possible once it gets in the gulf. I'm not saying cat 5, but cat 1 or 2 can still be very eventful with damaging winds and flooding rains...

[Air Force Met]

AFM I think that LLC is being replaced by something to the east that is why we are having a hard time finding it..

LLC is still in the same spot...it's just covered up by the convection and the blow-off. That doesn't preclude it moving around later...but right now it is still in the vicinity of 26/79. You can see it in the wind field from the obs and the satellite. Plus if you look at the banding on the radar and satellite, you can place the center on the west side of that...which is near 26/79.

[Buck]

I think it's way too early to narrow it down to a category of hurricane (if it even gets to hurricane!)... we've seen what can happen with storms lately... look at Wilma, Felix and Humberto... how quick they all strengthened.

[GeneratorPower]

Once we have a strong TS, intensification can be very rapid. I would never try to forecast intensity this far out.

EDIT: Buck, you beat me to it!

[BigA]

Howling winds here, probably due to the gradient

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

28kts, gusting to 32kts.

General pressure falls in the area.

[WeatherNLU]

Yeah, remember we don't need much of anything here. Who knows what these levees that they have "rebuilt" for us can withstand? 6-8 foot seas are already being forecast for the area for later in the week, I'd hate to add even a CAT1 hurricane to the mix. Who knows what these things can hold back, and I really don't want to find out right now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This system may start out as a Subtropical system. Upper air certianly would favor Subtropical through early Friday.

[BigA]

No, but a cat 1 or 2 cane is very possible once it gets in the gulf. I'm not saying cat 5, but cat 1 or 2 can still be very eventful with damaging winds and flooding rains...

Absolutely. The central gulf coast does not need any sort of tropical system right now. Even a solution close to what the GFDL 12z run forecasts (a sloppy category 1 hitting near the mouth of the Mississippi) would cause a lot of panic, and could prove very harmful.

[Air Force Met]

This system may start out as a Subtropical system. Upper air certianly would favor Subtropical through early Friday.

I agree with that. As I mentioned earlier...it will be hard to get a warm core system with the upper low so close...at least in the near future.

[Cyclone1]

This system may start out as a Subtropical system. Upper air certianly would favor Subtropical through early Friday.

Wow, number 3. o_O

A very sub-season if you will. :P

[Wx_Warrior]

30hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030m.gif

[robbielyn]

baynew9 in st. petersburg met mike clay says the low is trying to form in the bahamas

[cycloneye]

The runs of the models are being posted in the models thread.

[Stormcenter]

No, but a cat 1 or 2 cane is very possible once it gets in the gulf. I'm not saying cat 5, but cat 1 or 2 can still be very eventful with damaging winds and flooding rains...

Absolutely. The central gulf coast does not need any sort of tropical system right now. Even a solution close to what the GFDL 12z run forecasts (a sloppy category 1 hitting near the mouth of the Mississippi) would cause a lot of panic, and could prove very harmful.

I would buy into that (cat.1 not 2) maybe in the central GOM or westward "maybe" but not eastern.

[cpdaman]

AIR force MEt i live on the water in the s. palm beach area

earlier you said that with this synoptic setup and gradient it wouldn't take much deepening for a low to have tropical storm winds.

based on your current thinking, what areas ( i assume mostly coastal) would be in line for these conditions and when do you think this low may cross the coast

thank you

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Air Force Met]

AIR force MEt i live on the water in the s. palm beach area

earlier you said that with this synoptic setup and gradient it wouldn't take much deepening for a low to have tropical storm winds.

based on your current thinking, what areas ( i assume mostly coastal) would be in line for these conditions and when do you think this low may cross the coast

thank you

I would think the TS winds would be north of the center...PBI would be on the edge of getting some TS winds and be almost too close to the low as to not get anything. As far as crossing the coast? Sometime tomorrow if it doesn't reform further east (or NE)...which is possible.

[carversteve]

I don't understand what the difference is then what I described. Unless you believe "eventful"
means a major hurricane. If so, then I don't agree based I what is out there.

No, but a cat 1 or 2 cane is very possible once it gets in the gulf. I'm not saying cat 5, but cat 1 or 2 can still be very eventful with damaging winds and flooding rains...

But one never knows about what may happen..weather is fickle...look at humberto!! took only what 12 hours to become a hurricane from nothing.

[miamicanes177]

I'll go ahead and say it since a lot of people are thinking it: this could be a major hurricane and category 5 is possible. No, I do not expect a major hurricane or category 5 from this, however it is possible. We all know it is after what Dean, Felix, and Humberto have done. The correct thing to do is say a cat 1 or 2 is possible and that is what everyone is saying. Deep down inside we all know it has a better than 50/50 shot at exploding over the loop current with low shear.