Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

it can get that far to the west if the UL moves to the SW

[BrSpinDoc]

I am not a weather person, but the spokesperson for the state agency in charge of hurricane response in Louisiana. I am seeking a little guidance. What affect will this storm have on Louisiana and when? Should we start warning people now?

I seriously hope you are joking. A state spokesperson in charge of hurricane response looking at a blog to determine whether to warn people in your state. Very nice!!!

Actually we have many other tools we use and no one would take specific action from a "blog". But, it certainly does not hurt to ask the question as there are many professional weather personnel on this blog. I am all for using any tool available to improve overall situational awareness. Some of the mets here may have insight other than what is posted in the early stage by the NHC.

[x-y-no]

Been keeping an eye on Fowey Rocks station ...

Nothing to write home about. Pressure is down to 1012.7mb, winds nearing 20 knots - but keep in mind the anemometer is 44 meters above sea level.

[artist]

Been keeping an eye on Fowey Rocks station ...

Nothing to write home about. Pressure is down to 1012.7mb, winds nearing 20 knots - but keep in mind the anemometer is 44 meters above sea level.

thanks x-y-no. Did you see the others I posted earlier? About 3 more in the general area. Some good webcam shots of the clouds too.

[CrazyC83]

The farther north the better as it would be stuck in shelf waters as opposed to the Loop Current...

[Air Force Met]

AFM, wxman57, or other mets.... it's hard to believe this could trek west all the way across the GOM and hit Texas (as the Euro shows), without finding a weakness. It's getting late in the season for us. I know Rita did it, so it keeps my guard up, but that was considered pretty late in the season.... surely not another one just 2 years later. I know you can change your mind, but what odds do you put on it doing that? Everyone is asking me questions since I'm the weather geek of the crowd.... can I ease their minds a little?

It's possible since the longwave will be out west and the ridge will be setup over the SEUS.

[HURAKAN]

IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY FOR ACCUWEATHER!

[gatorcane]

right over my house. At least it shouldn't be that strong here in Palm Beach County.

The shelf has some warm waters though also so I wouldn't downplay that.

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is a nice IR loop of the Bahamas that is handy while waiting for the floater:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=mkwc&chnl=ui4&domain=bah&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[CrazyC83]

IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY FOR ACCUWEATHER!

A SW or WSW turn would be a "worst-worst-case-scenario" as the Loop Current can turn a weak system into a monster in a hurry...forget a hurricane there, more like a major hurricane...

[duris]

New Orleans AFD from this afternoon:

.LONG TERM...
GFS LATEST RUN HAS INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK WEST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST GULF LATE WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE A LOW HAS
NOT DEVELOP...A POINTED FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE EARLY. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THIS LOW TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE GULF. TEMPS
AT 5H ARE AROUND -9C OVER FLORIDA COMPARED TO -5C OVER LOUISIANA. MEAN RH
VALUES CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS THE LOW TRACKS WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH ALL THESE WEATHER UNCERTAINTIES...THE
MAIN THREAT WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OR POSSIBLE GULF LOW
WILL BE POSSIBLY TIDAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY.

[chadtm80]

IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY FOR ACCUWEATHER!

Gee its Odd for them to be showing a "worst case senerio"

[Derek Ortt]

SW would put the system under the influence of the UL more

Could well have a weaker system if it goes SW... due west... likely problems it appears. Hurricane very possible

[Wx_Warrior]

NWS/TPC

THE 12Z GFS IS OUT OF SYNC WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 12Z GEM
GLOBAL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN PRAIRIES OF
CANADA DAY 5...KEEPING THE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW SEPARATE.
THIS SEPARATION PRECLUDES THE BIG LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST GEM GLOBAL AND GEFS MEAN. STUCK
WITH THE CONSENSUS HERE. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE EVEN
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY DAY
4...SO SAW NO REASON IN DILUTING THE PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR THE
FINAL ISSUANCE WITH THAT SYSTEM. FINALLY...THE LOW TRACKING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS FARTHER NORTH ON THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM GLOBAL THAN EITHER THE 00Z ECMWF OR 12Z
UKMET. THE COORDINATED TRACK WITH TPC TAKES THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO
THE EC/UK TRACK...MAKING LANDFALL IN TEXAS EARLY DAY 6.

[Wx_Warrior]

A little too early? We are talking 5 days.....NOT TO EARLY

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Buck]

The convection is solidifying pretty quickly.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Wx_Warrior, which NWS/TPC product is this from (it helps to provide this information for reference)?

NWS/TPC

THE 12Z GFS IS OUT OF SYNC WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 12Z GEM
GLOBAL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN PRAIRIES OF
CANADA DAY 5...KEEPING THE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW SEPARATE.
THIS SEPARATION PRECLUDES THE BIG LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST GEM GLOBAL AND GEFS MEAN. STUCK
WITH THE CONSENSUS HERE. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE EVEN
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY DAY
4...SO SAW NO REASON IN DILUTING THE PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR THE
FINAL ISSUANCE WITH THAT SYSTEM. FINALLY...THE LOW TRACKING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS FARTHER NORTH ON THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM GLOBAL THAN EITHER THE 00Z ECMWF OR 12Z
UKMET. THE COORDINATED TRACK WITH TPC TAKES THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO
THE EC/UK TRACK...MAKING LANDFALL IN TEXAS EARLY DAY 6.

[Emmett_Brown]

ok... definitely no LLC, as the ULL is totally in charge. If we do see and LLC, my guess is that it would initially form in the Central Bahamas... this might seem a bit far to the SE, but that is just my opinion. I am thinking a sub trop low forming near this area do proximity to the ULL.

[sphelps8681]

NWS/TPC

THE 12Z GFS IS OUT OF SYNC WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 12Z GEM
GLOBAL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN PRAIRIES OF
CANADA DAY 5...KEEPING THE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW SEPARATE.
THIS SEPARATION PRECLUDES THE BIG LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST GEM GLOBAL AND GEFS MEAN. STUCK
WITH THE CONSENSUS HERE. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE EVEN
DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY DAY
4...SO SAW NO REASON IN DILUTING THE PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR THE
FINAL ISSUANCE WITH THAT SYSTEM. FINALLY...THE LOW TRACKING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS FARTHER NORTH ON THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM GLOBAL THAN EITHER THE 00Z ECMWF OR 12Z
UKMET. THE COORDINATED TRACK WITH TPC TAKES THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO
THE EC/UK TRACK...MAKING LANDFALL IN TEXAS EARLY DAY 6.

I live in Lumberton, Tx which is north of Beaumont. Where in Texas is landfall?

Where do you go to see these models?

Thanks