Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Observed at: Foots Cay, Foots Cay, Abaco
Elevation: 30 ft / 9 m

Temperature: 78.7 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 14.5 mph / 23 km/h from the ENE
Wind Gust: 16.2 mph / 26 km/h
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008.0 hPa
Heat Index: 83 °F / 28 °C

The pressure is almost certainly wrong. There have been issues in the past from reports in the Bahamas with the pressure being too low...and this pressure seems too low by about 5 MB. All other pressures from buoys...and other reporting stations in that area indicate a loose pressure gradient around the low and that it is near 1011-1012 as all other reports are in the 1012-1013 mb range. If a pressure of 1008 existed you would see evidence of a tight LLC on the hi-res vis...and there is none. So...the pressure is obviously way too low.[/quote]

Oh okay thanks- I could not really find a source exept a blog so probably a
typo.,

[Air Force Met]

Sure is coming together quickly with the aid of the ULL. I think it'll battle the sub to purely tropical status till it gets into the GOM. From there should take off as the shear lessens if the models are correct.

I think most of the stronger winds will be on the north side where the gradient is steepest, if the low passes to your north as it moves westward you may not see much rain or even wind at all.

Give Dean a cigar...

[cycloneye]

Well the fact that they're sending NOAA right now tells me they deem it important because so close to land and need upper air pattern to get a better feel for where it may go.

Well not right now,but tommorow night around 00:00 UTC or 8 PM EDT.It will help to feed the models with upper enviroment data.

[rockyman]

For anyone interested, James Spann's (ABC 33/40 in Birmingham)afternoon update entitled "Jerry's Birth?"

http://www.alabamawx.com/

[Air Force Met]

Oh okay thanks- I could not really find a source exept a blog so probably a
typo.,

I don't think its a typo. It may be but I seem to recall having this issue with another system moving through the Bahamas a couple/3 years ago and we came to the same conclusion...and I think it might have been this same station. Sometimes these weather station's barometers aren't calibrated right....they are either high or low by a few mb's and the bar tender doesn't know any better.

[gatorcane]

Look at all of the heavy showers and thunderstorms (probably with very gusty winds) looming offhsore SE Florida between the peninsula and the Bahamas....

Wow

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Stormcenter]

This from the NWS Lake Charles, LA afternoon discsussion.


LONG TERM...HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS AS THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS COULD
REFLECT A RATHER ROUGH RIDE. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LACKING WITH A
PREVIOUS GFS TRACK TAKING THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW INTO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST OR SABINE PASS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE NOT TO MENTION MORE FRIENDLY WITH THE TROPICAL LOW
ROUTING INTO THE MID GULF STATES. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH NCEP
THAT A SUBTROPICAL LOW OF THIS TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE DEVELOPING
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE COOLER AIR WHICH IS WHAT THE CURRENT
GFS HAS. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP OUR REGION ON THE SUBSIDENT AND COOLER
NOT TO MENTION MUCH DRIER SIDE. OF COURSE THIS COULD CHANGE SHOULD
STAY TUNED. WILL BE ISSUING STATEMENTS ONCE CERTAINTY IS BETTER
ESTABLISHED.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[carversteve]

All i know is..Long beach mississippi does not even need a low end hurricane.I was down there in 2005 to help with some of the clean-up....All i can say is WOW...Neve seen such destruction.And i'm sure they still have a long ways to go

[Cyclone1]

Wow! I just set that as my background...

[Air Force Met]

Look at all of the heavy showers and thunderstorms (probably with very gusty winds) looming offhsore SE Florida between the peninsula and the Bahamas....

Wow

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

One thing about it...as impressive as it looks organizationally on satellite...it looks equally unimpressive on radar in terms of organization. With the upper low over Florida...it will be some time before you get any kind of stacked warm core system.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclone1]

This reminds me of Tammy somewhat.

[RL3AO]

Hurakan = JB?

I'm just kidding!

I just got home...and I won't bother to go through 14 pages. All I will say is I guess it looks ok.

[canegrl04]

Didn't Katrina start out as a wave in this area? No deja vu please

[cycloneye]

Didn't Katrina start out as a wave in this area? No deja vu please

What created Katrina formed more east from where this is now.

[Cyclone1]

Didn't Katrina start out as a wave in this area? No deja vu please

Katrina formed east of the Lesser Antilles as td-10, which regenerated in this area. Completely different conditions.

[Pearl River]

CarverSteve wrote:

All i know is..Long beach mississippi does not even need a low end hurricane.I was down there in 2005 to help with some of the clean-up....All i can say is WOW...Neve seen such destruction.And i'm sure they still have a long ways to go


Yep...Long Beach and Waveland. I pass them both everyday on Hwy 90 and it still brings a tear to the eye's.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 20:15 UTC

[OuterBanker]

WOW, that's a lot of energy. Miami radar showing circ. Unlike Gabby I think this one means business. Lookout Gulf.