Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[duris]

This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

It's early, and our NWS office has been alluding to it for a few days. Now, whether anyone else has paid attention, dunno (our mayor? probably not). Don't watch local news. Like Sky, have alerted our administrators to it.

[gatorcane]

well could this be "the one" for the US in 2007.

I am praying that it stays away from NOLA or the LA or NE TX Gulf coasts but models are taking it somewhere to the northern GOM and some of the models are already saying hurricane...

[ronjon]

If 93L takes the GFDL track, it will be off the east coast of FL for about 24 hrs prior to landfall. The GFDL brings it slowly north and then west. If GFDL verifies, I'd expect at least a moderate tropical storm to form prior to the east coast LF.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gator,

This system isn't bombing. The upper low is slowly moving W, but it is still too close for anything remotely similar to rapid intensification. Some people take the extremes and say, "It will bomb!" or "Shear is too high!" The shear situation is becoming more favorable for some slight organization, but don't hype it up and expect a Katrina redux in FL. I trust the professional meteorologists and my eyes here. I do think it could become a TD prior to SE Florida "landfall", but it will be a beneficial event for Lake Okeechobee.

Tampa Bay Hurricane,

The TS force gust was probably associated with a thunderstorm (non-representative of the system).

Ok thanks. This should defintely bring some heavy rains/winds to
dry florida.

[Steve]

>>This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Well I doubt if something hits on Friday or Saturday it would be all that strong. UKMET does have it intensifying at landfall though. If it comes up and hooks out, the teleconnection would be more with NARI (including intensity). But stronger ridging is coming to the SE US. IMHO, the Gulf is open for business after 93L (likely-jerry-to-be) clears out be it WNW or eventual recurve.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think if Louisiana gets hit, it can be a major. I'd say high-end Cat1 would be about the upper limit even if it got that strong. That's not to say that if my idea of a farther west system is right, then it could possibly be stronger with those extra couple of days over the Gulf.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Now may I ask where are you getting your information from? I have not heard anyone
predict a hurricane hitting N.O.? Come on now this not even a TD yet and you have it possibly making landfall on N.O. as a hurricane despite the mentioned obstacles, if it develops, it will have to deal with. The invest is already fighting shear.

[fci]

This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Well at least you are not an alarmist

Let's see what happens before we get into "nightmare" scenarios.
I'm sure that the Pro Mets and NHC will steer us through this without a surprise on our hands.

Good news is that it is so close to shore that we don't have to wait for recon missions and satellite assistance.

[alienstorm]

Latest Miami Radar shows a the apparent LLC east of Miami, however, it the loop you can clearly see it moving east. This could be it is looping around a broader low. However, this will tend to keep it over the gulfstrean a little longer than expected thus giving it time to intensify. Just had a squall pass west of tamiami airport with heavy rain and a wind gust to 45 mph.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[jasons2k]

Few quick things...
1) Just a reminder this is the Active Storms forum so please cut the chit-chat. We have a sports forum for discussing the games, etc.
2) This system could affect a lot of people and we are already seeing an upswing in activity on the board. This means the Mods will be asked to enforce the rules aggressively.

[jhamps10]

This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Well at least you are not an alarmist

Let's see what happens before we get into "nightmare" scenarios.
I'm sure that the Pro Mets and NHC will steer us through this without a surprise on our hands.

Good news is that it is so close to shore that we don't have to wait for recon missions and satellite assistance.

wanna bet on waiting for RECON, first flight isn't even planned until THURSDAY AFTERNOON that is unless there has been a quick change of plans....

[gatorcane]

>>This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Well I doubt if something hits on Friday or Saturday it would be all that strong. UKMET does have it intensifying at landfall though. If it comes up and hooks out, the teleconnection would be more with NARI (including intensity). But stronger ridging is coming to the SE US. IMHO, the Gulf is open for business after 93L (likely-jerry-to-be) clears out be it WNW or eventual recurve.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think if Louisiana gets hit, it can be a major. I'd say high-end Cat1 would be about the upper limit even if it got that strong. That's not to say that if my idea of a farther west system is right, then it could possibly be stronger with those extra couple of days over the Gulf.

Steve

Steve wistful thinking to say the least.

Water temps in the GOM are in the upper 80s right off the WEst Coast of Florida and those waters have been untapped since June

[Air Force Met]

Gators are ready for LSU --- Go Gators!

I didn't say it would bomb but if it remained over water for about 3 days or a little more -- it could quickly get its act together with SSTs in the Gulf stream running in the mid 80s

Yes...go gators. I despise LSU (being an Aggie...I actually like UT better than LSU).

Now...back to the tropics....this won't stay off the coast. It's going to move...

(had to comment on the tropics to justify the post about LSU )

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have some questions:

What kinds of winds would impact florida?
30 mph? 40+?

Is there a storm surge potential along florida's west coast as it
develops out in the gulf? I remember as ivan/katrina went west many low
lying areas were flooded here from tidal surge...also barry flooded my
back yard with overflowing canal tide surge of 3-4 feet...

[Stormcenter]

>>This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Well I doubt if something hits on Friday or Saturday it would be all that strong. UKMET does have it intensifying at landfall though. If it comes up and hooks out, the teleconnection would be more with NARI (including intensity). But stronger ridging is coming to the SE US. IMHO, the Gulf is open for business after 93L (likely-jerry-to-be) clears out be it WNW or eventual recurve.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think if Louisiana gets hit, it can be a major. I'd say high-end Cat1 would be about the upper limit even if it got that strong. That's not to say that if my idea of a farther west system is right, then it could possibly be stronger with those extra couple of days over the Gulf.

Steve

Steve wistful thinking to say the least.

Water temps in the GOM are in the upper 80s right off the WEst Coast of Florida and those waters have been untapped since June

But we all know that water temp are only a piece of the puzzle when it comes to
TS development. The upper level winds play a huge part in it and they don't favor
a major hurricane right now.

[JessRomero]

I live in Southeast Texas and I have already dealt with Humberto and we really can't handle anymore rain and wind. I think soon to be Jerry is goin to gives us a run for our money here because I am thinking he is goin to pull a Rita. I am just hopeing that they don't wait till the last minute like they did with Rita and Humberto to even mention. When r they predicting it to make landfall cause my gut says this storm is goin to be BIG.

[Steve]

>>So...how you can figure we arrive differently ... I don't understand. I quoted him in my post. He was talking about the EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...so it should be pretty obvious to someone paying attention...that I was referring to development off the east coast of Florida and that shear would keep explosive development from happening. If you had a question about what I was saying last night...maybe you should have said something.

Yeah, I came in late to the game after working out. But in the 8:06 post (ref. "While water temps are favorable...the upper level winds will not be favorable for anything but a sheared system. The upper low that is going to dig down into the eastern GoM is going to keep anything that tries to form in-check trough late week....), I don't think there was an issue that now-93L would be off the east coast of Florida by late week. That didn't seem reasonable, as it will probably be in the Gulf by Thursday. So the entire chain that followed seemed to indicate that nothing was going to happen until later in the week when presumably (per global models) there would be a relaxation of shear > 85W. But if you guys were referring to only the East Coast of Florida, you're a step ahead of me. My argument was based on what I thought was going to happen with the upper pattern in the Gulf, not off the east coast of Florida, in roughly the same timeframe.

Gotcha. I guess the moral is not to just skim amateur posts when you're 7 or 8 pages behind so you know what the pros are referring to. My whole take on what you guys were saying was predicated on only something weak late-week in the Gulf , not Florida. Oh well, misunderstanding then. My argument for the resolution of the upper shear in the Gulf was posted around late 40's pages so you can see that I kind of had a handle on what I thought was going to happen. But I was fighting a windmill. LOL

>>And...I would like to add...what I said was going to happen last night is happening today.

Thanks. But I already credited you for that in my comments . I didn't so much see the baroclinic forcing, you guys did. I knew there would be some resolution with all the ingredients coming in, but I figured the transition would be more tropical at first due to the wave's interaction rather than a phase (btw, what's the appropriate term for a reverse-phase when something goes tropical from nontropical?).

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Taking it for what its worth (from me- this an $1 plus tax will get you a McDoanlds cheeseburger off the value menu), based on close intensity agreement between SHIPS and GFDL, and and track generally agreeing between UK Met and GFS, this has Southeast Louisiana as a Cat 1 written all over it.

I hope they don't canx the football game, love watching football in weather.

Of course, if model trned of a steady march East on the runs continues, could end up a Florida Panhandle storm, but since the system seems to have started its slow march from a sub-tropical system to the final goal, I think models getting a handle on it, this is a SE Louisiana system, with a track WNW after landfall, bringing generous rains to much of Louisiana and maybe eventually Northeast Texas.


Again, as official as a $3 bill, but I'm thinking I'm close.
So, this makes JB only half right, called development days ahead (assuming it does develop, it hasn't yet), but the Texas idea looks weak.

Good news, less time over water, less favorable conditions, shouldn't, with any luck, become a major.

[ronjon]

Anyone check the radar loop lately..uh..it's moving east. Not good since it will likely stay over water longer and may eventually drift north along the east coast ala GFDL and CMC.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[PTrackerLA]

Man I hate systems that get going in Bahamas and move W across Florida. It reminds me a little too much of what happened in 2005...let's hope that if this becomes Jerry it's well behaved and/or sheared.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM Discussion by TPC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY COMPLEX AND MESSY WEATHER PATTERN IS AFFECTING THE WRN
ATLC. THE SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES WSW TO NEAR 29N80W OR
NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SFC TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO
THE WRN CARIBBEAN...ALSO EXTENDS THROUGH THE WRN BAHAMAS ALONG
28N77W 23N79W. FINALLY...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CUTTING OFF
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. ALL OF THIS IS LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 72W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED
NEAR 26N79W...JUST OFFSHORE S FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109