Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[umguy1]

Not to mention Wilma didn't do to bad to hold on either

[gatorcane]

Lets hope for South Florida this moves on land quickly...I don't want to see it bomb out over the Gulf stream.

Already winds are picking up here in Boca Raton, FL near West Palm Beach

Pressures are falling and winds are increasing out of the North. Hopefully this doesn't sneak up and surprise South Florida:

City Sky & Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
NAPLES MOSUNNY 90 71 53 N12 29.95F HX 96
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 79 73 82 NE15 29.96F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 77 74 90 N9 29.95F
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 83 N10 29.95F FOG
POMPANO BEACH PTSUNNY 78 74 87 NE13 29.96S
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 78 74 87 N12 29.98R FOG
OPA LOCKA LGT RAIN 79 71 76 N20G30 29.96R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 88 69 53 NW13G18 29.95S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 82 73 74 N16G41 29.94S
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 87 72 60 N9 29.94F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 85 73 65 N14 29.94F

[fci]

Football forecast says it NEVER rains in Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. so therefore the GFS is wrong. So the saying goes, I've been there when the liquid sunshine was really coming down hard though.

The game is at 2:30pm Saturday though . I'll be there unless we have bigger issues at hand. Not too concerned with this system although it has surprised me how fast it's spun up today. And on the issue of LSU still having a game while N.O. was evacuating, that was 1998. I promise you that would NOT happen in our post-Katrina era.

Y'all should hope for this type of weather in 2 weeks to slow down the GATORS!

[tracyswfla]

Lets hope for South Florida this moves on land quickly...I don't want to see it bomb out over the Gulf stream.

Already winds are picking up here in Boca Raton, FL near West Palm Beach

Pressures are falling and winds are increasing out of the North. Hopefully this doesn't sneak up and surprise South Florida:

City Sky & Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
NAPLES MOSUNNY 90 71 53 N12 29.95F HX 96
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 79 73 82 NE15 29.96F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 77 74 90 N9 29.95F
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 83 N10 29.95F FOG
POMPANO BEACH PTSUNNY 78 74 87 NE13 29.96S
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 78 74 87 N12 29.98R FOG
OPA LOCKA LGT RAIN 79 71 76 N20G30 29.96R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 88 69 53 NW13G18 29.95S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 82 73 74 N16G41 29.94S
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 87 72 60 N9 29.94F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 85 73 65 N14 29.94F

What are the chances of 93 bombing off the coast before moving onshore somewhere in Florida?

[gatorcane]

Lets hope for South Florida this moves on land quickly...I don't want to see it bomb out over the Gulf stream.

Already winds are picking up here in Boca Raton, FL near West Palm Beach

Pressures are falling and winds are increasing out of the North. Hopefully this doesn't sneak up and surprise South Florida:

City Sky & Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
NAPLES MOSUNNY 90 71 53 N12 29.95F HX 96
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 79 73 82 NE15 29.96F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 77 74 90 N9 29.95F
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 83 N10 29.95F FOG
POMPANO BEACH PTSUNNY 78 74 87 NE13 29.96S
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 78 74 87 N12 29.98R FOG
OPA LOCKA LGT RAIN 79 71 76 N20G30 29.96R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 88 69 53 NW13G18 29.95S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 82 73 74 N16G41 29.94S
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 87 72 60 N9 29.94F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 85 73 65 N14 29.94F

What are the chances of 93 bombing off the coast before moving onshore somewhere in Florida?

If it had about 3 days over water it could but hopefully it has moved inland by then..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lets hope for South Florida this moves on land quickly...I don't want to see it bomb out over the Gulf stream.

Already winds are picking up here in Boca Raton, FL near West Palm Beach

Pressures are falling and winds are increasing out of the North. Hopefully this doesn't sneak up and surprise South Florida:

City Sky & Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
NAPLES MOSUNNY 90 71 53 N12 29.95F HX 96
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 79 73 82 NE15 29.96F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 77 74 90 N9 29.95F
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 83 N10 29.95F FOG
POMPANO BEACH PTSUNNY 78 74 87 NE13 29.96S
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 78 74 87 N12 29.98R FOG
OPA LOCKA LGT RAIN 79 71 76 N20G30 29.96R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 88 69 53 NW13G18 29.95S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 82 73 74 N16G41 29.94S
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 87 72 60 N9 29.94F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 85 73 65 N14 29.94F

What are the chances of 93 bombing off the coast before moving onshore somewhere in Florida?

Not good in this sheared enviroment..

[Derek Ortt]

its more of a Rita setup than Katrina

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Winds Gusting OVER Tropical Storm Force at Miami Beach!

Lets hope for South Florida this moves on land quickly...I don't want to see it bomb out over the Gulf stream.

Already winds are picking up here in Boca Raton, FL near West Palm Beach

Pressures are falling and winds are increasing out of the North. Hopefully this doesn't sneak up and surprise South Florida:

City Sky & Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
NAPLES MOSUNNY 90 71 53 N12 29.95F HX 96
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 79 73 82 NE15 29.96F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 77 74 90 N9 29.95F
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 83 N10 29.95F FOG
POMPANO BEACH PTSUNNY 78 74 87 NE13 29.96S
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 78 74 87 N12 29.98R FOG
OPA LOCKA LGT RAIN 79 71 76 N20G30 29.96R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 88 69 53 NW13G18 29.95S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 82 73 74 N16G41 29.94S
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 87 72 60 N9 29.94F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 85 73 65 N14 29.94F

[CrazyC83]

its more of a Rita setup than Katrina

I'm thinking more like the 1947 storm...

[Stormcenter]

Nobody seems to be mentioning what the inevitable Florida crossing could do to the system - I am pretty new to this game, but doesn't the land interaction here have to have a lot to do with 93L's potential in the Gulf? It would seem to be a big difference to me whether 93L is a TD heading into the Gulf or if it's just some convection struggling to hold onto an LLC. What's the likely impact of Florida on this system as it is?

Storms don't weaken much over florida- especially south florida-
katrina was actually holding its strength as it crossed south florida.

Despite the shear, this is looking like a Katrina Track/Setup

In what way....track,strength,etc.?

[seaswing]

Football forecast says it NEVER rains in Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. so therefore the GFS is wrong. So the saying goes, I've been there when the liquid sunshine was really coming down hard though.

The game is at 2:30pm Saturday though . I'll be there unless we have bigger issues at hand. Not too concerned with this system although it has surprised me how fast it's spun up today. And on the issue of LSU still having a game while N.O. was evacuating, that was 1998. I promise you that would NOT happen in our post-Katrina era.

Y'all should hope for this type of weather in 2 weeks to slow down the GATORS!

GO GATORS!!!

[miamicanes177]

This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

[PTrackerLA]

Football forecast says it NEVER rains in Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. so therefore the GFS is wrong. So the saying goes, I've been there when the liquid sunshine was really coming down hard though.

The game is at 2:30pm Saturday though . I'll be there unless we have bigger issues at hand. Not too concerned with this system although it has surprised me how fast it's spun up today. And on the issue of LSU still having a game while N.O. was evacuating, that was 1998. I promise you that would NOT happen in our post-Katrina era.

Y'all should hope for this type of weather in 2 weeks to slow down the GATORS!

LSU = Unstoppable this year, but good luck trying!!!

Okay sorry back on topic .

[MiamiensisWx]

Gator,

This system isn't bombing. The upper low is slowly moving W, but it is still too close for anything remotely similar to rapid intensification. Some people take the extremes and say, "It will bomb!" or "Shear is too high!" The shear situation is becoming more favorable for some slight organization, but don't hype it up and expect a Katrina redux in FL. I trust the professional meteorologists and my eyes here. I do think it could become a TD prior to SE Florida "landfall", but it will be a beneficial event for Lake Okeechobee.

Tampa Bay Hurricane,

The TS force gust was probably associated with a thunderstorm (non-representative of the system).

[Sabanic]

This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Could be bad for any areas along coast at this time, including FLA

ROLL TIDE !!!

[Air Force Met]

>>In defense to Derek and AFM; their end game was not a weak or sheared TD/TS in the end zone. They were thinking that it would be a sheared system in the eastern gulf. Once in the central gulf, conditions would improve.

Yeah, I saw that. They said that we'd have to wait until the Central Gulf. And I agreed with that. But the endgame was downplayed. Derek just noted above that he's going to be paying more attention now. I'll try to get the cut and pastes to show what I was differing with.

AFM (8:06pm): While water temps are favorable...the upper level winds will not be favorable for anything but a sheared system. The upper low that is going to dig down into the eastern GoM is going to keep anything that tries to form in-check trough late week....

AMF (8:14pm): Yes...N Fl and SE GA in an elongated trof...part of the longwave...continuing to dig southward where it will cutoff over the next day or so and be a shear monster for the whole week.

DO (8:17pm): Right now, as I stated in my evening PNJ blog post, a TS at most is all I can see from this...

AFM (8:21pm): I agree and second this. I would add: A highly sheared...baroclinically enhanced type tropical system at that (in other words...the initial deepening will be due to baroclinic type forcing...not pure tropical deepening).

Edit: Let me add - If it develops I think it will be a TS due to gradient alone...because of the high to its north. It won't have to work too hard.

There were some caveats in future posts, but I just disagreed with how we got from A to B. Ultimately, I agreed with them after storm got to Central Gulf, but I think they underplayed potential after that, and that is just my opinion. As noted by AFM, he deals in facts and charts that he has available to him. It's not his fault or anyone's if the progs end up being wrong. That's what we have based on sampling and the models. I don't pretend to hang with those guys, because they are 2 of the Top 5 or 6 posters on the site. But I said why I disagreed with their thoughts last night, and I still do. But I'm not sold on anything. Evolution is going a bit differently than I thought it would. They had the origins right. So we're just going to have to see if my idea of a pattern reversal from the upper trough stretched into the Gulf of Mexico is right or if it hangs around and I was wrong.



Steve

Dude...you missed the first post that started it all...and therefore you are taking the ENTIRE conversation out of CONTEXT.

Gatorcane wrote at 7:38-"MiamiensisWx you nailed this one.

In fact if development happens in the Bahamas as it looks like it is trying to do -- watch out East Coast of Florida and South Florida. A system can rapidly organize in that area with the Gulf stream current showing water temps well into the mid 80s."

STEVE That is what I quoted at "(8:06pm): While water temps are favorable...the upper level winds will not be favorable for anything but a sheared system. The upper low that is going to dig down into the eastern GoM is going to keep anything that tries to form in-check trough late week...."

So...how you can figure we arrive differently ... I don't understand. I quoted him in my post. He was talking about the EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...so it should be pretty obvious to someone paying attention...that I was referring to development off the east coast of Florida and that shear would keep explosive development from happening. If you had a question about what I was saying last night...maybe you should have said something.

Go back and read it again. TS for the east coast of Florida...once it closes off a low...because of gradient alone. And...I would like to add...what I said was going to happen last night is happening today.

[gatorcane]

Gators are ready for LSU --- Go Gators!

I didn't say it would bomb but if it remained over water for about 3 days or a little more -- it could quickly get its act together with SSTs in the Gulf stream running in the mid 80s

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nobody seems to be mentioning what the inevitable Florida crossing could do to the system - I am pretty new to this game, but doesn't the land interaction here have to have a lot to do with 93L's potential in the Gulf? It would seem to be a big difference to me whether 93L is a TD heading into the Gulf or if it's just some convection struggling to hold onto an LLC. What's the likely impact of Florida on this system as it is?

Storms don't weaken much over florida- especially south florida-
katrina was actually holding its strength as it crossed south florida.

Despite the shear, this is looking like a Katrina Track/Setup

In what way....track,strength,etc.?

Track, Not Strength. Shear should prevent
katrina-type intensitification over the next
several days- but once in the central
gulf I do not know what the shear forecast is.

[tigergirl]

The game is at 2:30pm Saturday though . I'll be there unless we have bigger issues at hand. Not too concerned with this system although it has surprised me how fast it's spun up today. And on the issue of LSU still having a game while N.O. was evacuating, that was 1998. I promise you that would NOT happen in our post-Katrina era.[/quote]

Y'all should hope for this type of weather in 2 weeks to slow down the GATORS![/quote]

LSU = Unstoppable this year, but good luck trying!!!

Okay sorry back on topic .[/quote]


I think that was for Georges....hubby went to game while we evacuated to Lafayette!

I'm not liking this scenerio at all!!! Don't need a slow mover along the LA coast!!
Will be bringing my gold poncho and my purple visor to the game against Darth Visor!!