Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Luis, I don't see 18z position of former Ingrid on NRL site. Where do I click? Graphic and text are all advisory 20 from 9z this morning?

Put mouse on image and the position will show up.

I still don't see it.... Do you mean the satellite image on the right? I hold the mouse over it and nothing pops up, both in firefox and IE...

[RL3AO]

From what I can tell, the circulation (or what is left of it) is circled.

[jaxfladude]

As of this time at 6:27 pm edt 9/17/2007 of this reply: Please give the % of regeneration for Ex-Ingrid(2007).

[RL3AO]

Less than 15% in my book.

[miamicanes177]

Less than 15% in my book.

The actual outcome will either be 100% of 0% so your prediction will be wrong. I don't understand why Dr. Masters and many other pro mets talk about a certain % chance of development when it pertains to the tropics. It either will happen or it wont. In order for someone to judge the accuracy of your 15% prediction, they would need a good 100 past instances where you gave a 15% chance of development and see if development indeed occurred 15/100 times. We're not talking about a 15% chance of rain here, where showers will be widely scattered across an area so you just give a 15% chance of one spot getting wet. Tropical development has two solutions that are possible, and one of them will occur every single time: development or no development. I say to all those % "forecasters" just tell it like it is. Funny how I've never seen the NHC give a % forecast. That is a big tell. They put it on the line each and every time and never hide. Kudos to NHC.

[jaxfladude]

Less than 15% in my book.

The actual outcome will either be 100% of 0% so your prediction will be wrong. I don't understand why Dr. Masters and many other pro mets talk about a certain % chance of development when it pertains to the tropics. It either will happen or it wont. In order for someone to judge the accuracy of your 15% prediction, they would need a good 100 past instances where you gave a 15% chance of development and see if development indeed occurred 15/100 times. We're not talking about a 15% chance of rain here, where showers will be widely scattered across an area so you just give a 15% chance of one spot getting wet. Tropical development has two solutions that are possible, and one of them will occur every single time: development or no development. I say to all those % "forecasters" just tell it like it is. Funny how I've never seen the NHC give a % forecast. That is a big tell. They put it on the line each and every time and never hide. Kudos to NHC.

Hey, miamicanes177, we are not the NHC for better or WORSE ...

[Category 5]

[cpdaman]

the people who still talk in "absolute" regarding systems amaze me

they see storm after storm defy popular opinion and yet they still love to say "done"

gator the shear forecasts from the models are so shady that i would not give up on this thing yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
b4 sun sets still alot of turning in low levels

this thing may not be named but it needs to watched for development in the next couple days.

[emeraldislencguy]

I agree it is not over till the fat lady sings--and she may be warming up back stage--the latest satellite images looks better .

[ciclonson]

All the crow and told ya's notwithstanding...

still keeps spinning, and spinning, and spinning...

[Brent]

!!!!!

[george_r_1961]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am opening up this thread because I do think Ingrid can regenerate in about 3 days or so and may not be a fish. Anybody that is behind me post here (or who thinks I am crazy so be it).

-She has a vigorous LLC at the lower levels. Shear cannot destroy that
-She keeps generating intense convection that is currently getting blown off to the east by the 30K of shear.
-Water temps are only going to get warmer
-It is September, and the env is bound to become favorable for her again.
I expect here to move off with the low-level flow at a generally WNW to sometimes NW movement and end up a little to the left of the NHC guidance currently as of this posting. I am then looking at models showing a huge 500MB High building in by Wed or so next week off the East Coast of the US which will turn here WNW and then due W or even WSW. At that time the ULL winds will be more favorable and she should start to blow up again.

Shear tendency:


Visible Loop showing strong, in tact LLC:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I agree with your logic with the exception of the part I bolded. Ive seen Septembers with westerly shear practically down to the equator(ok well maybe not THAT far). When that high builds mid week..keep in mind that its almost tuesday now..the shear will abate and conditions could become more favorable. The $64k question is will there be a viable llc left?

I agree as long as the llc keeps spinning up convection it has a chance albeit a small one.

[Sanibel]

Ingrid surprisingly intact for having no convection for several days.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2007 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 17:59:07 N Lon : 61:58:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1010.1mb/ 31.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Center Temp : +20.7C Cloud Region Temp : 12.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.62^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************

[gatorcane]

Ingrid's thread doesn't seem to die either.

I have to say Ingrid is lasting quite a while still on this discussion board.......

[CrazyC83]

Ingrid's thread doesn't seem to die either.

I have to say Ingrid is lasting quite a while still on this discussion board.......

Yeah considering there is a chance (not a great one but it could still happen) she could revive herself...

T2.1 is not bad at all for a wave, I need to look for other agencies' numbers. QuikSCAT missed the wave so it is unclear if there is a closed circulation.

[gatorcane]

yes I do think there is a possibility that when Ingrid meets up with our mess in the Bahamas she just could be the catalyst to get everything going.

She should be in the Bahamas by the end of this week, coincidentally when models are latching on to developmen.t

[gatorcane]

Agreed she could what models develop east of Florida in the Bahamas....

Circulation is still in tact (without convection) and moving towards the SE Bahamas tonight.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed she could what models develop east of Florida in the Bahamas....

Circulation is still in tact (without convection) and moving towards the SE Bahamas tonight.

Correct, which is why this could still be worth watching. Do other agencies continue to give T numbers despite the fact it is no longer a tropical cyclone? (I don't know if this will become an Invest or simply remain 08L.Ingrid)

[CrazyC83]

As of this time at 6:27 pm edt 9/17/2007 of this reply: Please give the % of regeneration for Ex-Ingrid(2007).

I'd give it a 40% chance of regeneration. If the LLC remains intact and shear drops off, all that is needed is convection firing.