TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[chrisnnavarre]

Ingrid's LLC this morning appears to be located around 17.4N-59.2W moving west-nw, cse 280. She doesn't look like she's packing anytime soon to go to Norway and she will not pass 20N before 60W so Florida is going to be in play here especially if the ridge builds in. Also the squeeze play for the state is still developing because the SW Carribean still looks good this morning.

[Doc Seminole]

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/arch/cases/920824/sat/gifs/vapor/92082303.gif


Let me be the first.......... Looks something like this?

Doc Seminole

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 11:45 UTC

[ts_kakolina]

16/1145 UTC 17.3N 57.4W T3.0/3.0 INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 12:15 UTC

[Weatherboy1]

Just out of curiosity, but wouldn't it be a "path of least regret" move to put a TS Watch up for a couple of the northern islands? Seems to me Ingrid is continuing to move a bit north of due west along wtih the shallow flow and could get pretty darn close to a few islands there.

[cycloneye]

Just out of curiosity, but wouldn't it be a "path of least regret" move to put a TS Watch up for a couple of the northern islands? Seems to me Ingrid is continuing to move a bit north of due west along wtih the shallow flow and could get pretty darn close to a few islands there.

Agree.Is only about 250 miles from Antigua and Barbuda.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 12:45 UTC

[Blown Away]

This theory of the high building in and forcing what's left of Ingrid back to the towards the W at the EC is seeming pretty low.

[wxman57]

Looks like the circulation is winding down and Ingrid may be close to opening up into a wave. Center appears to be about 70 miles west of the NHC estimate (17.1/58.3) if there's one left. Note the ship just to the west of Ingrid with a south wind. Ingrid may well come close enough to the NE Caribbean to produce a few squalls there, but the farther west it goes, the higher the shear. Chances of TS development are pretty close to zero, thus no need for a TS watch.

I'd suggest looking at a few of the other disturbances out there that look more impressive than Ingrid as the focus for development. Like the one near 9N/38W. Or the storms in the eastern Caribbean Sea that may have no chance of developing in the middle of the TUTT, but could be what the models are seeing developing in the Gulf late in the week.

[wzrgirl1]

some of the models have ingrid developing again and not dissipating....as long as she is still classified we still have something to talk about

[Air Force Met]

some of the models have ingrid developing again and not dissipating....as long as she is still classified we still have something to talk about

This board will talk about it until the last thunderstorm or hint of trofing is gone...and then a day after that.

But it doesn't change the facts.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 13:15 UTC

[Cookiely]

some of the models have ingrid developing again and not dissipating....as long as she is still classified we still have something to talk about

This board will talk about it until the last thunderstorm or hint of trofing is gone...and then a day after that.
I think they will be discussing it for at least ten days after it dissipates. wxman57 did make a joke about it hitting Norway. I just know someone will be checking to see if it does or not!

[Air Force Met]

some of the models have ingrid developing again and not dissipating....as long as she is still classified we still have something to talk about

This board will talk about it until the last thunderstorm or hint of trofing is gone...and then a day after that.
I think they will be discussing it for at least ten days after it dissipates. wxman57 did make a joke about it hitting Norway. I just know someone will be checking to see if it does or not!

This board has two reactions: Amateurs enthusiasts cheer because they get to track something; and the pro-mets boo...because they have to track something (which for a lot of us means working late...I was at work for 36 hours straight with Humberto).

[curtadams]

Ingrid's low level flow looks a lot worse this morning, which surprised me since there's been a lot of associated convection over the night. I don't think there's going to be anything left after 2 more days of this.

[Derek Ortt]

circ remains very well-defined on QUIKSCAT this morning, have to disagree with this being close to a wave

incolclusive as to whether or not it has regained TS status (I have questions about the "uncontaiminated" 40KT vector)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png

[miamicanes177]

circ remains very well-defined on QUIKSCAT this morning, have to disagree with this being close to a wave

incolclusive as to whether or not it has regained TS status (I have questions about the "uncontaiminated" 40KT vector)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png

I agree. I'm not sure how wxman57 says this is nearly an open wave when dvorak is giving it a T3.0.

[DESTRUCTION5]

circ remains very well-defined on QUIKSCAT this morning, have to disagree with this being close to a wave

incolclusive as to whether or not it has regained TS status (I have questions about the "uncontaiminated" 40KT vector)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png

I agree. I'm not sure how wxman57 says this is nearly an open wave when dvorak is giving it a T3.0.

I agree this thing looks better than yesterday in terms of convection and its still moving more west than N...The west movement has nothing to do with the continental US but id at least think about a TS watch for the N Antillies..

[Chacor]

circ remains very well-defined on QUIKSCAT this morning, have to disagree with this being close to a wave

incolclusive as to whether or not it has regained TS status (I have questions about the "uncontaiminated" 40KT vector)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png

I agree. I'm not sure how wxman57 says this is nearly an open wave when dvorak is giving it a T3.0.

Dvorak doesn't "give" anything. The T3.0 is a reading made by the SAB based on the latest IR (or VIS)... and it's well possible TAFB could've said something totally opposite, like T1.0 (however unlikely).