TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[weatherwoman]

BIGWIND maybe here? -

ftp://geo.msfc.nasa.gov/twc/

I have never seen that site either. That has some very high-res images from the GOES I think without land overlays. I don't think that has loops though.

This is not an offical product and is not to be used.


New % chance of Tropical Storm Ingrid becoming a:

Tropical Storm: 100% (already was one before now)
Hurricane: 4%
Category 2 Hurricane: 1%
Category 3 Hurricane: 0.2%
Category 4 Hurricane: 0.01%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.006%

This is based on current trends and forecasts. If Ingrid survives the shear and goes west, the %'s here are trash.

what will going west do for it if it keep west will it stand a better chance of developing and hitting the us?

[punkyg]

So is the center of Ingrid exposed again?

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Shear expected to decrease ahead of Ingrid tomorrow. It might have a hole to work with if it keeps going WNW or turns W...

[gatorcane]

Steering flow showing why the BAMS forecast a W to WNW track and are trending more W.

I see no reason why Ingrid will make a NW turn. The only models that forecast this turn to the N are the BAMD (which deepens this system to quickly so throw it out) and the LBAR based on the Skeetobite graphic. But c'mon how reliable is the LBAR, it always wants to turn systems too quickly. The NOGAPS keeps thinking a deeper system so forget that solution. The UKMET eventually turns it north but moves is VERY slowly after moving it WNW for several days.

I still think the NHC will need to shift the track more left this advisory and if not the following advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Steering flow showing why the BAMS forecast a W to WNW track and are trending more W.

I see no reason why Ingrid will make a NW turn.

Looks like it will continue west to me...they might want to throw a Tropical Storm Watch soon for the northern Leewards...

[gatorcane]

Shear tendency showing the TUTT low is leaving a window open for Ingrid should she move like the BAMS say she will move...shear is dramatically decreasing in the area north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

She needs to make it about 300 miles more WNW and she will see much better conditions.

[Air Force Met]

I see no reason why Ingrid will make a NW turn. The only models that forecast this turn to the N are the BAMD (which deepens this system to quickly so throw it out) ...

I didn't realize the BAMD was also an intensity model...

..and you wouldn't use it anyway since Ingrid is a shallow, weak system and is governed by lower level flow.

[Gustywind]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/atlir.html
LLC still there....

[aguaviva]

Still going, unbelievable...Imagine this one with favorable conditions....

[Air Force Met]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/atlir.html
LLC still there....

Yep and right now it is abut 30 miles NORTH of the forecast points...near 16.8/55.5.

Certainly has a more northward component tonight according to the shortwave IR.

[Gustywind]

Still going, unbelievable...Imagine this one with favorable conditions....

Yeah absolutely, we should continue to keep an eye on this for the Leewards in case of , seems that convection is bursting a little....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Gustywind]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/atlir.html
LLC still there....

Yep and right now it is abut 30 miles NORTH of the forecast points...near 16.8/55.5.

Certainly has a more northward component tonight according to the shortwave IR.

Should it verifies, i hope so, but very tenacious system on his whole trip in spite of the strong shear...congratulations ingrid

[Evil Jeremy]

96HR VT 20/0000Z 23.0N 63.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED


Next!

[Brent]

Yes... NEXT!

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 160229
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2007

...LITTLE CHANGE WITH INGRID...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT
405 MILES...650 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.9 N...55.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
Still there....

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Air Force Met]

96HR VT 20/0000Z 23.0N 63.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED


Next!

Makes sense. Despite some hope by some here to the contrary ...it was obvious to me that the shear was not going to let up any time soon...a quick glance at the water vapor shows you what is in store. If anything...it is going to get worse before it gets better...and a weak, sheared system just can't hold out forever.

Actually surprised they didn't start the dissipation process last advisory.

[Derek Ortt]

latest SHIPS guidance is keeping the shear a little longer than before, though its 31KT is the highest expected through the period (about 25KT for the next couple of days, not as bad as currently, but still awful for development... may need to survive until Monday now... good news)

[Air Force Met]

latest SHIPS guidance is keeping the shear a little longer than before, though its 31KT is the highest expected through the period (about 25KT for the next couple of days, not as bad as currently, but still awful for development... may need to survive until Monday now... good news)

I think you better stretch that out a little more...like to Tuesday or Wednesday. I'm not looking at SHIPS...just some charts and progging the system....which is what I was doing before. The shear is not going to let up anytime soon...it'll need to survive for 3-4 days as a naked swirl with bursts of convection....and I don't give that much of a chance. Once the upper levels improve...it may have a chance at "resurrection."

[Derek Ortt]

if it's 3-4 days... this thing is a goner... even to Monday is going to be tough

['CaneFreak]

if it's 3-4 days... this thing is a goner... even to Monday is going to be tough

Yep...I have faced the reality and brutality of it...its done...game over...unless some MIRACLE happens and the shear just disappears..but lets face it, it probably wont. so...yeah...