TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Air Force Met]

I don't see much letup in the shear for the next few days. Not until Thursday does the GFS indicate the center (if it's still around) might get across the jet around the TUTT and move into a lower shear zone north of 25N. More than likely it'll dissipate before then. In any case, it might only "threaten" Bermuda should it survive.

the UL is moving to the north and conditions may improve as soon as TOMORROW.

Ingrid needs to dissipate within the next 24 hours or else it will likely reintensify

I agree with Derek Ortt on this. As Derek correctly stated, conditions might improve as early as sunday. If it survives through sunday, watch out.

I don't see the shear letting up that soon. It will be sheared at least through Tuesday...and I doubt the low level center will survive that long.

[RL3AO]

I hate when people write articles like these.

http://www.dbtechno.com/science/2007/09/14/tropical-storm-ingrid-develops-in-atlantic/

Look at the link from the image. It is named Tropical_Storm_Ingrid.jpg

Good Catch!! Is that Ivan or Katrina? As you so well pointed out, it's obviously NOT Ingrid...

I think it is Ivan. Too far east for Katrina.

[HURAKAN]

I hate when people write articles like these.

http://www.dbtechno.com/science/2007/09/14/tropical-storm-ingrid-develops-in-atlantic/

Look at the link from the image. It is named Tropical_Storm_Ingrid.jpg

Good Catch!! Is that Ivan or Katrina? As you so well pointed out, it's obviously NOT Ingrid...

I think it is Ivan. Too far east for Katrina.

Too small for Katrina.

[RL3AO]

Some new convection for Ingrid.

[BIGWIND]

Hello all. Does anyone know how to save the various satellite loops to your computer?

Thanks.

[jaxfladude]

Why is Ingrid still on life-support?

[artist]

BIGWIND maybe here? -

ftp://geo.msfc.nasa.gov/twc/

[windstorm99]

Ingrid if you look at an infrared satelitte loop you can really see how fast those clouds are blowing to the NE.The conditions in front of ingrid iam afraid are going to a get worse before they get better.A shallow system will tend to stay west but if she makes it and finds a better environment she may try to intensify and begin to turn around the ridge to the NW.

Models late in the forcast period are really spread out so as of now its a wait and see situation.

[Evil Jeremy]

The following is completely unofficial

Chances of Ingrid:

Dieing: 70%
Becoming a TS again 30%
Becoming a Hurricane 5%
Making a FL landfall 15%
Hitting the rest of the EC: 5%
Chances of a fish storm if it survives: 80%

[sunnyday]

I hate to show my ignorance, but what is TUTT?

[wzrgirl1]

tropical upper trophsperic trough...not good for tropical development in otherwords

[sunnyday]

Thank you. I hate to show how little I know about some of the terms and abbreviations used here, but how else can I learn?

[gatorcane]

not sure why people are proclaiming fish with Ingrid...as the NHC said the model guidance is split and that cone just represents the center of the consensus....that is the NHC just put the cone between those models on the left and those on ther right...some of the models take her WNW towards the SE Bahamas while others want to turn her north out to sea.

The consensus is still out. As long as she remains weak she would go W to WNW. So far that turn the NHC has predicted has not panned out.

She continues to get closer to the Northern Leewards islands tonight as she moves West.

[wzrgirl1]

fish....you are holding on to little hope

[artist]

I hate to show my ignorance, but what is TUTT?

here is a great page from the NOAA with pcitures about what a TUTT is -


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html

here is the link to a report by Chris Landsea and others regarding how they can sometimes even help a system ventilate. (I think I interpreted that right)
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/

for those really wanting to learn I am surprised there are not more questions sometimes.

[gerrit]

I hate to show how little I know about some of the terms and abbreviations used here, but how else can I learn?

Well... You could start from entering what you'e look for in a search engine, like Google. Click here for the result of the search for TUTT

The first (non-sponsored) result takes you to the FAQ about hurricanes of the AOML (where you can learn a lot more by the way. )

[wzrgirl1]

Thank you. I hate to show how little I know about some of the terms and abbreviations used here, but how else can I learn?

hey look we all started out not knowing anything....we learn from each other, that is what makes this board so fun....This is where I received most of my knowledge about tropical weather.....ask away!!

[artist]

I think asking here can be better sometimes. If a pro is around you can get a better answer in being better able to fully understand the answer!

[weatherwoman]

if td ingrid holds on and keeps going west instead of making that north turn prodected by the nhc can it get its act together further west, was it suppose to have already turned northward

[Cyclenall]

BIGWIND maybe here? -

ftp://geo.msfc.nasa.gov/twc/

I have never seen that site either. That has some very high-res images from the GOES I think without land overlays. I don't think that has loops though.

This is not an offical product and is not to be used.


New % chance of Tropical Storm Ingrid becoming a:

Tropical Storm: 100% (already was one before now)
Hurricane: 4%
Category 2 Hurricane: 1%
Category 3 Hurricane: 0.2%
Category 4 Hurricane: 0.01%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.006%

This is based on current trends and forecasts. If Ingrid survives the shear and goes west, the %'s here are trash.