Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[perk]

The overall consensus today is pressures will lower over the southern carribean and conditions will become favorable for development. I expect that by mid-week TS(strengthening) near 18N/80W. From that point there are way to many variables at this stage so ALL residents from Texas to the Florida Keys need to stay informed..

Vortex after observing the models up to now, i think your post is one of the smartest i've read all day.

[canegrl04]

It looks like it really slows as it approaches the gulf coast on this run then moves west a bit toward Louisiana? That's a weird run.

Sky, I think it weakens the ULL and the 500 mb ridge starts to rebuild from the east - pushing it west along the northern gulf coast.

Texas seems to be getting the storms this season.After Erin and Humberto,the last thing we need is a major hurricane to deliver another blow

[PTPatrick]

Yeah...steering appears pretty weak there towards landfall. So not only could it be a strong storm but one that hangs around. This type of movement along the NGOM isnt really unprecendented either. Elena sort of paralleled the coast almost from apalachicola to New Orleans. either way...bad run for The pensacola to new orleans area. If memory serves...a westward moved storm over New Orleans(paralleling MS coast) is supposed to be one of the worst case senarios but I could be wrong. The rainfall would be a HUGE issue here too as. we are talking Danny type Biblical rainfall from Biloxi to Pensacola if that panned out. my arent long range models fun.

[Vortex]

Actually sky its very similar to NOGAPS in the long range..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007091512

[Vortex]

Look forward to the suite of 00z Globals tonight...So far all states from Floria to LA have hits in the long range depending on model and time run except Texas so ur up next

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Almost looks like GFS/NOGAPS are trying
to pull an Elena in the Northern Gulf, with
the ridge forcing whatever forms westward.
Intriguing.

[skysummit]

Actually sky its very similar to NOGAPS in the long range..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007091512

Yea, you're right. I didn't realize that. Thanks. I'm still amazed at the consistency and agreement on these models.

[jhamps10]

I believe vortex said earlier to watch NW colombia tonight for something to possibly develop. well.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

looks like we may be seeing the start of something here, will watch the wave too and see what happens.

[tropicsgal05]

I will sure be watching this next week. I'm here in the Panhandle(Ft Walton Beach). Hope this doesnt get bad for anyone. Thanks for all the information provided on Storm2k.

[PTPatrick]

can anybody tell me what kind of "slosh" situation we would be talking about for NOLA with a storm that moved DUE west from just off Pensacola to just over NOLA. I know Elena was almost that situation but it moved in before NOLA. Actually Surge wasnt bad in Mississippi do to the prolonged North wind. But if the north winds were strong enough I would think it would push Lake Pontchartrain south toward the City. The only thing that would be in their favor is that there would be very little actually gulf surge water in the bayou and pontchartrain at that time...any thoughts? The worst flooding didnt seem to happen with katrina however until after the winds went North for NOLA... It could also be that as the eye passed over the city the surge could just add to the problem of the water piling up on the south side of the lake and add enough surge to screw things up. I am not an oceanographer but since this whole thread is really conjecture I would love some opinions on this scenario.


just doing some research and it appears that a storm with this track could so something similar to the 1947 hurricane or possibly Betsy with respect to flooding in new orleans. Niether of these caused as much flooding as Katrina.

[attallaman]

138 hours



You also can make a hypertext link like this and is also easy for all to open them.

To my untrained eye what kind of map am I looking at? I can make out the USA; lots of green and blue blobs; what am I looking at here?

[attallaman]

Actually sky its very similar to NOGAPS in the long range..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2007091512

Yea, you're right. I didn't realize that. Thanks. I'm still amazed at the consistency and agreement on these models.

Where are the models located?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB mentioned yet again today in his blog that the upcoming pattern will be very similar to that seen during Carla in 1961. To add to that, he also mentioned that between Tuesday of next week and the following Tuesday after that, he wouldn't be surprised to see 2 storms form in the vicinity of the GOM/FL (One of them possibly due to that system north of Hispanola, and the other coming from the Caribbean). The caribbean storm still looks to be the main/biggest threat though.

Sounds interesting..

[windstorm99]

Right now i see nothing down there as far as thunderstorm activity is concerned but ive noticed there is some model support on something trying to develope in the SW caribbean but to me upper level winds dont look very favorable for tropical cyclone development.I think if something trys to get going it will be in the next 3-5 days but nothing in the near term.Adrian

[JessRomero]

So is it looking like in the next week or two we might get something else?? I still have now power from Humberto so I haven't been home to get online I am staying at motherinlaws. What models r we looking at I am trying to find them so can anyone tell me around what time we r looking at storm around here?

[skysummit]

Right now i see nothing down there as far as thunderstorm activity is concerned but ive noticed there is some model support on something trying to develope in the SW caribbean but to me upper level winds dont look very favorable for tropical cyclone development.I think if something trys to get going it will be in the next 3-5 days but nothing in the near term.Adrian

...and that's pretty much when we're looking at development to commence. By that time, the northwest Caribbean and the gulf will be ready to go.

[artist]

138 hours



You also can make a hypertext link like this and is also easy for all to open them.

To my untrained eye what kind of map am I looking at? I can make out the USA; lots of green and blue blobs; what am I looking at here?

the round blobs you see withe circle of different colors are lows and the more circles and colors the stronger the low is - I do not know the key as to when it shows tropical depression, a tropical storm versus a hurricane and strength of them myself. Maybe someone else here will be able to help you there. I know that is not much help, but hopefully a little.

[tropicsgal05]

Are we possibly looking at 2 systems entering the GOM next week? Is this what the models are showing? Just making sure i understand what is being said.

[canegrl04]

JB mentioned yet again today in his blog that the upcoming pattern will be very similar to that seen during Carla in 1961. To add to that, he also mentioned that between Tuesday of next week and the following Tuesday after that, he wouldn't be surprised to see 2 storms form in the vicinity of the GOM/FL (One of them possibly due to that system north of Hispanola, and the other coming from the Caribbean). The caribbean storm still looks to be the main/biggest threat though.

Sounds interesting..

The Jerry and Karen one-two punch ?

[Ivanhater]

A look at the models this evening

nogaps




gfs



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