TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Brent]

Yeah I don't think Ingrid will be around much longer. I don't see how it can survive this.

[cycloneye]

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO. SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN.

From 11 PM discussion about the TUTT,upper lows,shear,and slightly less hostile.

[artist]

sounds like they aren't so sure what Ingrid is going to do, does it? She really seems to be holding her own according to water vapor & infrared loop rather well.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Under the conditions she is facing, does it seem that way to anyone else?

[wxman57]

There is one way that Ingrid could survive the shear. If it turns north then northeast and accelerates out to sea the relative shear will drop and convection won't be too far from the center. Otherwise, it's "barrel of the gun" or "dagger to the heart" as the NHC says.

[superfly]

sounds like they aren't so sure what Ingrid is going to do, does it? She really seems to be holding her own according to water vapor & infrared loop rather well.

ummm sounds like they know exactly what Ingrid is going to do...weaken and possibly dissipate

[miamicanes177]

The HWRF is expected to be the best intensity model in the world and was just released this year. It says 992mb in 5 days. It will be very interesting to see if this model is able to outperform the NHC. It schooled the NHC on Dean as it correctly showed category 5 intensity well in advance. Let's see how well it performs on this one. I have very high hopes for this model and believe it will lead the way in intensity forecasts for many years.

['CaneFreak]

The HWRF is expected to be the best intensity model in the world and was just released this year. It says 992mb in 5 days. It will be very interesting to see if this model is able to outperform the NHC. It schooled the NHC on Dean as it correctly showed category 5 intensity well in advance. Let's see how well it performs on this one. I have very high hopes for this model and believe it will lead the way in intensity forecasts for many years.

i would not get my hopes up on this forecast though...things are becoming more hostile by the minute. Forget it. Its done. Its rolled up.

[HollynLA]

Ingrid looks like one of the those beta fish right now.

[Category 5]

Ingrid looks like one of the those beta fish right now.

So if we get another one we can get rid of ingrid.

The sheer might do that for us. I'm not counting it out yet though, remember Andrew.

[Ptarmigan]

Even if Ingrid becomes an open wave, it can regenerate into a hurricane. Hurricane Lili of 2002 went to an open wave and became a Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf.

[MGC]

Ingrid tonight is advancing into one of the most hostile shear enviroments I can recall. There is little chance that Ingrid can survive IMO. At best I give Ingrid a 10% chance of making it though the shear. Of course, I remember a few season ago when shear was high and several systems got sheared out only to rebound. Perhaps Ingrid will survive but I doubt it.....MGC

[fci]

In my opinion we can remember lots of "one of a kind" storms but they happen once every several years or so.

This one looks destined to be a goner.
Unless the NHC and Pro Mets are all wrong and I seriously doubt that.

And even if, and I mean that it is such a remote possibility; it regenerates it is a Fish.

[jaxfladude]

So how long will the lull, if any, be after Ingrid dies out....
My pick: 7 to 10 days....then boom the last week of September and the first 19 days of October...

[punkyg]

I didn't know there was a ULL just above ingrid.
i just thought the ULL moving towards the bahamas was the only one.

[Vortex]

GFS 00z 9/15 rolling in...

Thru H42 actually maintains Ingrid and moves it WNW

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[miamicanes177]

This one looks destined to be a goner.
Unless the NHC and Pro Mets are all wrong and I seriously doubt that.

The official forecast which comes from the NHC is for Ingrid to weaken by 5kts to 30kts in 24 hours, but to maintain that intensity for the following 4 days. Dissipation is not, and has never been, forecast by the NHC. Pro met Derek Ortt's forecast is calling for this to be a 35kt tropical storm in 5 days. I'm not sure how you can say the NHC and pro mets are calling for this to be a goner.

[AJC3]

The HWRF is expected to be the best intensity model in the world and was just released this year. It says 992mb in 5 days. It will be very interesting to see if this model is able to outperform the NHC. It schooled the NHC on Dean as it correctly showed category 5 intensity well in advance. Let's see how well it performs on this one. I have very high hopes for this model and believe it will lead the way in intensity forecasts for many years.

Interestingly enough, the HWRF was actually outperformed by the more simple DSHP statistical scheme for Dean.

[Vortex]

GFS H+66 Alive and well and looks to bump up against the ridge..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

HWRF has been brutal this season.

I'd like to see it tried with different initial lateral and forecast boundary conditions than the GFS. When we were running MM5s in real time during RAINEX and Wilma at RSMAS, we had little success with the GFS fields, but had more with the CMC, GFDL, and NOGAPS (I couldn't even take the MM5-GFS that seriously and basically ignored it)

[AJC3]

HWRF has been brutal this season.

I'd like to see it tried with different initial lateral and forecast boundary conditions than the GFS. When we were running MM5s in real time during RAINEX and Wilma at RSMAS, we had little success with the GFS fields, but had more with the CMC, GFDL, and NOGAPS (I couldn't even take the MM5-GFS that seriously and basically ignored it)

From what I've seen in operations, it's intensity forecasts have been far too aggressive, but I didn't want to make that comment without stats to back it up. I'm assuming that's what you found.