TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



By the way, anyone that is thinking "Next," better stick with Ingrid because the way the Atlantic is looking today (major TTUT in the central-western Atlantinc, major surge of dry air), Jerry may take his sweet time to come around. In the Caribbean westerlies, and not easterlies, are dominating the weather conditions. The trough is also affecting the GOM.

[fci]

If is does survive it would be more a Fla Storm IMO Not a TX one

Or a Carolina storm.
IF.....

[storms in NC]

If is does survive it would be more a Fla Storm IMO Not a TX one

Or a Carolina storm.
IF.....

Naw Mark said no more for this year. We have our little one that is all.

I don't know if you read his site last night or not. But read what he said if you have the time.

Deb

[Ptarmigan]

Ingrid is struggling. This could the season's first struggling storm.

[Brent]

Ingrid is struggling. This could the season's first struggling storm.

Andrea, Barry, Erin, and Gabrielle?

[Emmett_Brown]

Hmm... This is the shear map from the GFS for 0z Sunday. Shear is there, but i have seen storms survive worse shear. My bet is that she weakens to a TD, but that it doesnt kill her:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

This would be followed by restrengthening eventually

[jhamps10]

bad news for those who want this to die, at least 3 models, call for it holding together, and ships calls it to be at 63kts in 120 hours.

[miamicanes177]

SHIPS has shear at 11kts in 96 hours, and decreasing to 3kts in 120 hours. 3kts of shear in a moist environment with the kind of heat content available would suggest rapid intensification in 5 days.

['CaneFreak]

Hmm... This is the shear map from the GFS for 0z Sunday. Shear is there, but i have seen storms survive worse shear. My bet is that she weakens to a TD, but that it doesnt kill her:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

This would be followed by restrengthening eventually

Unfortunately, the shear map you need to look for is a little bit higher in altitude than 300 to 850. You need to look for a 200 mb shear map. This one is for the lower levels of the atmosphere. TUTT lives in one of the highest regions of the atmosphere. That is why they call it the tropical UPPER TROPOSPHERIC trough.

[crm6360]

If that shear map were to verify, then this shearing death knell might be overhyped. Rely on visuals to determine the short-term situation... apparently there is little skill forecasting shear beyond 1-2 days in this type of setup.

EDIT: apparently somebody was posting the incorrect shear map.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

What's the feature heading up behind Ingrid? The long line of convection heading west?

edit: Looks like a giant outflow boundary that stretches for hundreds of miles.

['CaneFreak]

Also, notice the units on that shear map. They are in meters per second. 22.4 meters per sec approximately equals 50 to 60 knots of shear. TERRIBLE FOR TCs.

edit: I just did the conversion and it actually came out to be 50 mph. Not much better. VERY UNFAVORABLE.

Also to note: TUTT is just about as bad as the jet stream blowing right over the system. For those of you hoping the system will survive, I would not get my hopes up

[CrazyC83]

SHIPS has shear at 11kts in 96 hours, and decreasing to 3kts in 120 hours. 3kts of shear in a moist environment with the kind of heat content available would suggest rapid intensification in 5 days.

That's true, which is why I think that if it can survive past Monday or Tuesday (even as a weak tropical depression), it could refire quickly and strengthen back into a serious storm in the 96-120 hour timeframe after clearing the TUTT.

[storms in NC]

bad news for those who want this to die, at least 3 models, call for it holding together, and ships calls it to be at 63kts in 120 hours.

I am not one who said it will die. But Models can be very wrong. IE Gabby

[jhamps10]

bad news for those who want this to die, at least 3 models, call for it holding together, and ships calls it to be at 63kts in 120 hours.

I am not one who said it will die. But Models can be very wrong. IE Gabby

true, very true. also Humberto another good example.

[gatorcane]

edit

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

MON-FRI...THE CONTITENTAL RIDGE WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RDIGE BY
12Z MON. MEANWHILE...A ZONAL JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE ERN PAC WILL PUSH EAST AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE A MID/UPR LVL
TROF OVER THE ARKLATEX. MID RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM INTO A CUTOFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SERN SEABOARD FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LCL WX PATTERN...IF
IT STAYS OVER THE ATLC...THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN ON ITS
DESCENDING SIDE AND PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. IF IT DRIFTS INTO
THE GOMEX...THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...THE DLM RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...MAINTAINING A
DEEP ERLY FLOW THOUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SPRATT
IMPACT WEATHER UPDATES...SHARP
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

[canegrl04]

bad news for those who want this to die, at least 3 models, call for it holding together, and ships calls it to be at 63kts in 120 hours.

Shes chugging along at 7mph.Plenty of time for shear ahead of her to weaken before she arrives

[ciclonson]

Wow, this TUTT business has everyone so whacked out it seems no one wants to discuss what is happening NOW. Whether it dies or not, it is still an interesting storm right NOW with convection blowing up over the center...

[jhamps10]

Wow, this TUTT business has everyone so whacked out it seems no one wants to discuss what is happening NOW. Whether it dies or not, it is still an interesting storm right NOW with convection blowing up over the center...

yeah everyone's moved to the EURO showing a nola hurricane next week.