Tropical Storm NARI (0711) in WPAC
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947
WTPQ20 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0711 NARI (0711)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 26.2N 126.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 29.5N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 161200UTC 32.7N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171200UTC 36.0N 127.7E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
100 kt is in good agreement with the JTWC's 115 kt.
947
WTPQ20 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0711 NARI (0711)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 26.2N 126.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 29.5N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 161200UTC 32.7N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171200UTC 36.0N 127.7E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
100 kt is in good agreement with the JTWC's 115 kt.
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Winds on Kumejima have lessened. The western part of the island is now in the eye. Kumejima Station (eastern part of the island) reporting a 948.4 hPa pressure.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... eaCode=000
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... eaCode=000
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Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC
Pretty, tiny but pretty.
And I think everybody should take the TS -> Cat 4 in 36 hours with a pinch of salt. This probably was a TS when the *slow* JTWC confirmed a TD and a Typhoon when they said TS.
And I think everybody should take the TS -> Cat 4 in 36 hours with a pinch of salt. This probably was a TS when the *slow* JTWC confirmed a TD and a Typhoon when they said TS.
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- P.K.
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Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC
Looks like I angered Nari by daring to update my TS vs 100kt TY graph for the first time this year yesterday evening...!
So an increase of 55kts (-40hPa) in 24 hours and an increase of 70kts (-55hPa) in just 36 hours!
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/l/200711.html.en
Year Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Pressure (hPa) Wind (kt) Category Image
2007 9 13 00 21.8 134.2 1000 30 2 Image
2007 9 13 03 22.3 133.4 1000 30 2 Image
2007 9 13 06 22.7 132.9 998 35 3 Image
2007 9 13 09 23.0 132.6 996 40 3 Image
2007 9 13 12 23.2 132.0 992 45 3 Image
2007 9 13 15 23.7 131.2 990 45 3 Image
2007 9 13 18 24.0 130.4 985 50 4 Image
2007 9 13 21 24.2 129.7 980 55 4 Image
2007 9 14 00 24.4 129.4 970 65 5 Image
2007 9 14 03 24.7 128.7 960 75 5 Image
2007 9 14 06 25.0 128.1 955 85 5 Image
2007 9 14 09 25.4 127.7 955 85 5 Image
2007 9 14 12 25.7 127.2 945 90 5 Image
2007 9 14 15 26.2 126.8 945 100 5 Image
So an increase of 55kts (-40hPa) in 24 hours and an increase of 70kts (-55hPa) in just 36 hours!
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/l/200711.html.en
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Nope, weakened a bit.
WTJP21 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0711 NARI (0711) 940 HPA
AT 26.7N 126.5E WEST OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 28.0N 126.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 28.8N 125.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.0N 124.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 32.5N 125.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WTJP21 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0711 NARI (0711) 940 HPA
AT 26.7N 126.5E WEST OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 28.0N 126.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 28.8N 125.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.0N 124.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 32.5N 125.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2007 Time : 183300 UTC
Lat : 26:48:57 N Lon : 126:23:23 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 913.2mb/127.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.8mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +20.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2007 Time : 183300 UTC
Lat : 26:48:57 N Lon : 126:23:23 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 913.2mb/127.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.8mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +20.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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