TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[CrazyC83]

I don't see how this will keep going northwest with a solid ridge sitting there...eventually (what is left of) Ingrid will have to make a WNW or W turn...

[storms in NC]

There is going to be egg on some faces here when done with. I don't think it is going to the grave just yet. It could pull out of this shear that it is about to encounter. There has been a few storm that had been shear to almost death but pulled out at the end and became a hurricane. I can't remember the name but it was out in the Atlantic a few years ago. But there has been some that did go to the grave. This one all depends on how strong the low is to stay together or not. Now this is a wait and see game with her.

[CrazyC83]

There is going to be egg on some faces here when done with. I don't think it is going to the grave just yet. It could pull out of this shear that it is about to encounter. There has been a few storm that had been shear to almost death but pulled out at the end and became a hurricane. I can't remember the name but it was out in the Atlantic a few years ago. But there has been some that did go to the grave. This one all depends on how strong the low is to stay together or not. Now this is a wait and see game with her.

That would be Irene. Since the conditions in the western Atlantic are good with the Gulf Stream, it could turn a naked swirl into a solid storm in a hurry...

[boca]

If Ingrid survives it probably won't be a Florida storm because of the pull to the north due to the ULL's. I think the Carolina's northward particually Bermuda have to watch this.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Did a new tropics at a glance Image...

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/images/invests/glance.jpg

Also New Ingrid image....

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/images/invests/91test3.JPG

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

Note that Ingrid isn't forecast to be an intensifying TS as your graphics would indicate, but a weakening or dissipating TD.

I love Avilla's "Dagger through the heart" comment. Quite valid. Bye Ingrid!

WXMAN57 throws all his chips on the table..Rest hold..Blackjack or bust baby..!

[miamicanes177]

Do NOT let your gaurd down just because of temporary shear.

Yes shear could kill it if it does than thank God.

but if it doesn't watch out.

People will never learn. We can try and tell them over and over but they will not listen. Some believe they can accurately predict the intensity of a tropical cyclone when it is just not possible. Humberto, Felix, Dean, Gabrielle, Katrina, Rita, Dennis, Wilma, Ivan, Emily...should I continue? It is amazing how the very same people who busted big time on the most recent hurricane (Humberto) are the same ones proclaiming an end to Ingrid. However, the tropics will do what they do regardless of what any forecaster says it should do.

[canegrl04]

THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS
HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE
JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


From 11 AM Discussion.

We shall soon see.If Ingrid survives,put Avila in the column of "don't know what they are talking about" If Ingrid dies,alot of us will be eating crow

[skysummit]

Before the season began, I said Ingrid will be a storm to be reckoned with in the U.S. I'm not a pro so I'm sticking to my guns. What ever is left of Ingrid after the next few days, watch out when she gets near the Bahamas.

*No scientific evidence supports my thoughts...they're just my thoughts, but I'm sticking to them.

[punkyg]

I have i question is the ULL causing the shear?
Is the ULL moving faster then Ingrid and
since Ingrid is moving slow will the shear lessen alittle bit by the time Ingrid gets there.

[artist]

punky - go read Stormw's forecast in the Tropical Analysis forum - his forecast is really good at explaining what is going on.

[HollynLA]

I can forecast how this board will go for the next few days if Ingrid does survive.

Ingrid starts losing convection: the board all claims they were right and Ingrid is dead
Ingrid becomes a naked swirl: post start up immediately with phrases like stick a fork in it, it's dead Jim, next, etc.
Everyone pats themselves on the back for a forecast well done.

2 days later Ingrid exits the shear and regains convection. New posts will start about her forecast of intensity and landfall chances and not one mention of the prior dead forecasts and how bad it busted. Ingrid makes landfall at "x" location and those who chose that location will then again pat themselves on the back for a job well done.

[canegrl04]

I can forecast how this board will go for the next few days.

Ingrid starts losing convection: the board all claims they were right and Ingrid is dead
Ingrid becomes a naked swirl: post start up immediately with phrases like stick a fork in it, it's dead Jim, next, etc.
Everyone pats themselves on the back for a forecast well done.

2 days later Ingrid exits the shear and regains convection. New posts will start about her forecast of intensity and landfall chances and not one mention of the prior dead forecasts and how bad it busted. Ingrid makes landfall at "x" location and those who chose that location will then again pat themselves on the back for a job well done.

You know the board well

[Typhoon_Willie]

Anyone remember a storm named Andrew who had very nearly been sheared to death only to overcome that problem and went on to do some history making? To coin a phrase. It aint over til it is over!

[boca]

I can forecast how this board will go for the next few days.

Ingrid starts losing convection: the board all claims they were right and Ingrid is dead
Ingrid becomes a naked swirl: post start up immediately with phrases like stick a fork in it, it's dead Jim, next, etc.
Everyone pats themselves on the back for a forecast well done.

2 days later Ingrid exits the shear and regains convection. New posts will start about her forecast of intensity and landfall chances and not one mention of the prior dead forecasts and how bad it busted. Ingrid makes landfall at "x" location and those who chose that location will then again pat themselves on the back for a job well done.

You know the board well

HollynLA I do agree with you about this board. I do think this will be a Carolina system if it survives.

[skysummit]

Just for the heck of it...the looney tune forecast:

[punkyg]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I should know better then to declare this kind of a storm dead or going to be dead over "hot" tropical waters. I feel that the tutt will force 20-25 knot shear over the system, but once the high builds things should become more favorable. After katrina and Andrew I will say its a wait in see. This just won't be a favorable enviroment for our little storm. In it may die trying.

[tolakram]

I think the outflow boundaries indicate the convection is falling apart. They also indicate stable air more than shear, so is Ingrid getting dealt a double punch here, or am I wrong?

[fci]

That's what this board is all about.

People who say everything will bomb, threaten where they live, Cat 5 for every Invest

Those who say everything will go Poof

Those who follow what the Pro Mets and NHC say and use their own judgement to draw their conclusions, sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

Choose which one y'all are in.

I'd go and start assigning members to these groups but would be suspended and banned PDQ. I like it here TOO much to do that!!!

So I will leave it to y'all to figure it out...........

[wxman57]

WXMAN57 throws all his chips on the table..Rest hold..Blackjack or bust baby..!

You might say "I'm all in!" (on the death of Ingrid)