TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wxman, I agree that it would be near impossible for Ingrid to duck under the tutt for a full 5 days. But I don't believe we will have her interacting with such a strong tutt for that long. I think 3 days max, but more likely even less (2). the tutt will not be as strong for that long (5 days) in my opinion based on the model guidance at this point. I expect it to weaken sooner and more so than originally progged last night. -just look at how much the shear estimate was modified in just a day to being very very strong from almost favorable conditions just a few days ago. I expect just as big a switch to occur in thinking about the shear to happen in another day. The shear estimates always seem to be pretty unrealiable more than just 2 days out. I would rather revisit the shear estimates again each day rather than accept the longer-term predictions. History has just shown me that they very often do change quickly.

[Gustywind]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:26 AM EDT on September 14, 2007
Tropical Storm Ingrid finally managed to get
organized enough last night to earn a name. Ingrid continues to struggle with strong upper-level westerly winds, which are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over the storm. Satellite loops of Ingrid show that the shear is keeping most of Ingrid's heavy thunderstorm activity pushed to the storm's east side. There is some weak upper level outflow to the north, and one low-level spiral band forming on the storm's west side. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are in the storm flying a research mission, and have measured top surface winds of 59 mph with their SFMR instrument.
Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots over Ingrid until Saturday afternoon, then steadily rise to values near 30 knots. Ingrid will probably increase in strength over the next 24 hours, then weaken. It is possible that the shear will destroy Ingrid by the time the storm makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The exact track of Ingrid as it approaches the islands depends on how strong the storm gets over the next 24 hours--a stronger storm will move more to the northwest, since it will "feel" upper level winds that will pull it farther north. As a result, the 5-day track forecast for Ingrid has higher uncertainty than usual, and it is not a sure thing that Ingrid will miss the Lesser Antilles. The HWRF, GFDL, and SHIPS intensity models all forecast that Ingrid will survive the shear and will be a weak tropical storm when making its closest approach past the islands.

If Ingrid does survive past Tuesday, it may encounter a region of lower wind shear that will allow it to re-intensify. A large ridge of high pressure is forecast to dominate the region late next week, which should force Ingrid on a west to northwest track towards the U.S. Depending upon how far north the storm is at that point, it may represent a threat to either Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast. The GFS model forecasts that the next major trough of low pressure capable of recurving Ingrid out to sea will not arrive until Saturday September 22. Stay tuned.

[Derek Ortt]

if it survives, there could be major trouble down the road

I know its early, but that EC trough does not look to be sticking around for long... the models I looked at all have it cutting off and retrograding to the west

however, it is only 1 model run and Ingrid has at least 3-4 days of strong shear to deal with. lets hope it just dies

[cycloneye]

KNHC 141433
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2007

...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS...TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT 755
MILES...1210 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...INGRID SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Gustywind]

One word for Ingrid :
mystery

[cycloneye]

THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS
HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE
JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


From 11 AM Discussion.

[wzrgirl1]

see these are the types of storms that get me nervous....it's usually the hyped storms that don't affect us....this one is predicted not to survive the upcoming TUTT and is not forecasted at this point to be a hurricane.....these are ones that make history because sometimes they overcome so many obstacles and end up making headlines....hopefully I am wrong but it should be an interesting week ahead for sure

[ronjon]

Even if it survives I think it looks out to sea. Slow moving systems like this give the fronts time to create a recurve synoptic at this time of year.

Not likely Sanibel given the hugh sprawling high pressure progged to build off the mid-Atlantic. HPC D8+ shows strong ridging building off the east coast in response to a deep trough out west - negative PNA pattern setup. If it survives, it likely goes west or W-NW for several days.

[gatorcane]

if it survives, there could be major trouble down the road

I know its early, but that EC trough does not look to be sticking around for long... the models I looked at all have it cutting off and retrograding to the west

however, it is only 1 model run and Ingrid has at least 3-4 days of strong shear to deal with. lets hope it just dies

FINALLY folks

as I have been saying all along...

If shear doesn't kill it "she may be a factor"

Verification by a met is good.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

see these are the types of storms that get me nervous....it's usually the hyped storms that don't affect us....this one is predicted not to survive the upcoming TUTT and is not forecasted at this point to be a hurricane.....these are ones that make history because sometimes they overcome so many obstacles and end up making headlines....hopefully I am wrong but it should be an interestin week ahead for sure

Absolutely, there's many things written on the paper , but in the atmosphere it's another thing , right now Ingrids continues to stay alive and pose little suscipious things for all residents of the EC and maybe for US in extension....

[Derek Ortt]

before anyone starts crowing about the TCPOD... the reason there are no flights scheduled for September 17 is that it is a required down day for the P3 aircraft

[chrisnnavarre]

Even if it survives I think it looks out to sea. Slow moving systems like this give the fronts time to create a recurve synoptic at this time of year.

Would have to be stacked for that to happen, and TUTT won't allow it to stack. This pops out on the other side of the TUTT and then it's game on for Ingrid. Besides, I think Jeff Masters said this morning based on current models next front that could take this out to sea isn't scheduled to arrive until around Sat. 22 Sep. Just a tad too late I would think to save the CONUS. Maybe a question for the Pro-Met out of Houston, WXMAN-57 I believe it is. What do you think will happen with Ingrid if it pops out on the other side of the TUTT and starts to intensify? Not that it will, but even if it does, what is your opinion of what will happen then with this storm?

[Chacor]

before anyone starts crowing about the TCPOD... the reason there are no flights scheduled for September 17 is that it is a required down day for the P3 aircraft

Are the AFRES HH's in maintenance or something? Granted, there might not be anything left to fly into on Monday.

[fci]

THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS
HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE
JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


From 11 AM Discussion.

Well, this is a fine example of the NHC not even being conservative on the demise of the storm.
I love the phrase "a dagger through the heart".

IF this survives, highly unlikely; it could be a threat for the EC.
Proabably not where I live but maybe further up the highway.

But, there sure seems to be a very small chance of this happening given wxman57's tremendous explanation last night and this morning of the TUTT. And as he said, it is not a forecast; it is a REALITY.

So I don't think "denial" makes much sense.
Derek confirms but does hold out that IF it survives it could be a problem AND Mr Avila is pretty straightforward in his assessment in the TS Discussion quoted above.

Don't know how many Pro Mets and NHC forecasters have to confirm the probable demise fo Ingrid for many to believe it?

Probably time to wait for the next system.
South Florida remains "cone-less" for the season. YAY!!!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

its not expected to be a threat to land through 5 days; thus, the AF is not flying

[chadtm80]

Did a new tropics at a glance Image...



Also New Ingrid image....



http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[wxman57]

Did a new tropics at a glance Image...

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/images/invests/glance.jpg

Also New Ingrid image....

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/images/invests/91test3.JPG

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

Note that Ingrid isn't forecast to be an intensifying TS as your graphics would indicate, but a weakening or dissipating TD.

I love Avilla's "Dagger through the heart" comment. Quite valid. Bye Ingrid!

[chadtm80]

Did a new tropics at a glance Image...

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/images/invests/glance.jpg

Also New Ingrid image....

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/images/invests/91test3.JPG

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

Note that Ingrid isn't forecast to be an intensifying TS as your graphics would indicate, but a weakening or dissipating TD.

I love Avilla's "Dagger through the heart" comment. Quite valid. Bye Ingrid!

I actually wasnt showing it as an intensifying TS, but was just showing general track of current system.. I have jut altered the graphic however to show it opening back up to a TD

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

if it survives, there could be major trouble down the road

I know its early, but that EC trough does not look to be sticking around for long... the models I looked at all have it cutting off and retrograding to the west

however, it is only 1 model run and Ingrid has at least 3-4 days of strong shear to deal with. lets hope it just dies

Yes 100% agree Derek.

As I have been saying for 4 days now, Ingrid, if it survives the shear, given warm
waters, favorable conditions, and a strong ridge could be major trouble = major
threat.

IF this is a tropical depression or storm emerging from the shear, it
would likely with the ridge, warm waters, favorable shear in several days
go to major hurricane category 3 strength and easily be a threat to SE US
and bahamas with the Strong Ridge. This situation needs to be watched
Very very closely. Be watching folks, be awatchin'.

Do NOT let your gaurd down just because of temporary shear.

Yes shear could kill it if it does than thank God.

but if it doesn't watch out.