TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The big tutt is an upper atmosphere thing. If Ingrid stays weaker, she is mostly existing in the lower atmosphere and less affected by the tutt. IF she get sstronger and gets higher into teh atmosphere, the tutt will rip her apart. think how it is on a windy day. at the surface, you feel some wind, it may even be strong. but if you go to the roof of a tall building or climb a mountain, the winds are incredibly strong. imagine Ingrid is as the ground level right now. if she stays weaker, she may get blown around a bit, but make it through, going under the harsh wind field. But if she strengthens, the winds will be able to tear her apart as she will be "taller" into teh atmosphere and get her head knocked off. her entire column could get ripped apart, killing her off. if she satys beneath the winds though, she could keep her shorter column pretty intact to get bigger down the road once she passes the tutt.

haha... she has to keep "ducking" til she clears the danger!

[ronjon]

Let me just add that most of the global models maintain an intact circulation such as CMC, NOGAPs, and UKMET and generally follow the dynamic models in not dissipating the storm. So, in my mind, if the models were dissolving it to an open wave then I'd tend to write it off. But they're not so it may survive.

[PhillyWX]

wxman, great discussion..it looks like Ingrid's not going to be lasting too terribly long.

[PhillyWX]

Wxman57 thinks Ingrid will be dead because of the tutt expected to develop. He's good so I'm going with what he says. If that tutt is that strong than Ingrid will be a naked nothing in a couple of days if that.

Before we get too giddy we have to remember he was saying Humberto was weakening as it became the fastest invest to a hurricane in recorded history. Second, the NHC is the only official source of information and they are not forecasting dissipation.

They (the NHC) are very conservative when it comes to forecasting dissipating storms. Look at Eastern Pacific systems for a classic example of how quickly the intensity forecasts get adjusted downward once the storms hit colder water.

From my history of following storms (10 years online, 20 years overall) NHC will rarely forecast dissipation on a TS based on shear alone.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

As far as direction, as a weaker storm, existing in the lower levels, she is more steered by the air flow at the low levels--east to west. The tutt doesn't affect her direction much because it is at the higher levels. -she scoots under its directional interaction, that is why she can seemingly "go through" that wall.

We have to remember that we are working in a 3-d environment. The satellite images only appear to us as a 2-d flat environment.

When they speak of a storm "Stacking" they are referring to the low level circulation, the mid-level circulation, and the upper level circulation of a storm all lining up in a vertical column. Tropical storms build up the layers as they get stronger and get better venting. They "suck out" the heat from the surface levels and spin it up into their columns to spit it out of the top. The more powerful a storm gets, the more efficient it is at doing this at the highest levels.

(just trying to help out newbies to understand)

[Gustywind]

Does anyone here still think that Ingrid still posses a threat to Florida or the rest of the EC for that matter, given the current model trend?

All can i say is that for me... this is something to watch until 20 N at least... Ingrids seems tenacious and very versatile since two days , too early to speculate once again, all this story doesn't seems clear with my untrained eyes Evil Jeremy!

[chadtm80]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I doubt she will be completely killed off. She may be nothing but a nekkid swirl in 2 days, but the jury is also still out as to whether or not that swirl could regenerate. Those are awfully warm waters out ahead of her, even after she passes the tutt...with a lot of hot water still remaining between her and land. Homegrown hurricanes can get spun up in half the distance. For this reason alone, I would keep an eye on it.

Imagine if we saw a strong wave, with any signs of circulation, showing up at the latitude where the tutt ends... don't you think many people would be paying attention to that at this time of year???

[bwhorton2007]

chrissy&nikki, thanks for the info as that was nice and yes our gal is a real rebel been through a lot and still going.BWhorton2007 newbie. Also i won't argue with any of you asthat's no way to learn.
Hopefully this won't get deleted as im trying to learn from ya"ll

[gatorcane]

Folks, what is all of this TUTT talk? Sure it may be there now but we have a La Nina and it is September! Do you think that TUTT will hold strong for a week+??? I don't think so and that is exactly what some of the models are now shifting towards (mentioned above in this thread e.g the HWRF).
Don't be surprised if Ingrid can make it and be a factor later. It's not June/July folks.

[cycloneye]

Andrew is a good case.From nada NE of the Leewards,it reformed into one of the most strongest hurricanes.I am not saying by any means that Ingrid will do the same,however many things occur down the road in the atmosphere that change day by day.

[bwhorton2007]

cycloneye you took the words right out of my mouth didn't Andrew encounter on of these tutts and survive? Yes i believe it did and made history afterwards.

[canegrl04]

Theres so much uncertainty with Ingrid.If she survives for the next several days,I see a hurricane in someone's future

[gatorcane]

Andrew is a good case.From nada NE of the Leewards,it reformed into one of the most strongest hurricanes.I am not saying by any means that Ingrid will do the same,however many things occur down the road in the atmosphere that change day by day.

Exactly Luis --- just because people are not seeing a rapidly developing CAT 5 monster out there they think that it is over -- Andrew and many other storms have proved otherwise. As I have said before, the fact it should remain weak for the next several days will allow a gradual bend back to the W as the ridge builds in over the EC of the US...the cold front should move through this weekend and early next week leaving a big ridge in its wake after.

You can bring up the archive of discussions from Andrew and Katrina and the discussion indicated they should be all but dead -- then bam. They came back in a big way.

and if she can just remain in tact enough to flare up in the more favorable area between the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas she could definitely be a factor.

Another storm that comes to mind is the Labor Day CAT 5 hurricane of 1935...it waited until a couple of hundred miles north of the Hispaniola to start getting going and became a CAT 5 in just a couple of days as it wreaked havoc on the Florida Keys --- not that I forecast this but still you have to respect Ingrid still.

Look at the calendar again folks -- its September NOT June/July.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 thinks Ingrid will be dead because of the tutt expected to develop. He's good so I'm going with what he says. If that tutt is that strong than Ingrid will be a naked nothing in a couple of days if that.

Before we get too giddy we have to remember he was saying Humberto was weakening as it became the fastest invest to a hurricane in recorded history. Second, the NHC is the only official source of information and they are not forecasting dissipation.

They (the NHC) are very conservative when it comes to forecasting dissipating storms. Look at Eastern Pacific systems for a classic example of how quickly the intensity forecasts get adjusted downward once the storms hit colder water.

From my history of following storms (10 years online, 20 years overall) NHC will rarely forecast dissipation on a TS based on shear alone.

That's true, and they even admit in their discussions that they're being conservative in keeping it around for 5 days.

There's no "ducking under the TUTT". Ingrid would have to survive as a naked swirl for 5-7 days (or more) beneath ripping wind shear. The weak low-level swirl would gradually wind down and dissipate with no convection to support inflow. NOGAPS might be offering another option (similar to BAMD), a sharper right turn by the convection in the SW winds aloft and the LLC following along with it out to sea to the NE.

[jasons2k]

Look at the calendar again folks -- its September NOT June/July.

And once again, climatology is a factor to consider but hardly the determining factor given the synoptics. First of all, the TUTT WxMan57 is showing isn't going to say "Oh, wait, it's September so I think I will disappear now", second, it doesn't have to survive for a "whole week" to do its dirty work...

Look at some of the satellite images and see the clouds just NW of Ingrid streaming to the E/NE. Not something you see very often in September but you can't deny that it's there.

[wxman57]

The latest HWRF increases Ingrid's strenght...yet I see what WXMAN57 sees..I thought the NOAA flight yesterday was supposed to be to input information for this particular model..don't understand..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

The GFDL has never been very good at recognizing a sheared environment, and the HWRF may have the same issues.

[gatorcane]

In the Global models thread Derek Ortt said:

"the shear is much lower in this SHIPS than the previous couple"

interesting to say the least.

[HollynLA]

The latest HWRF increases Ingrid's strenght...yet I see what WXMAN57 sees..I thought the NOAA flight yesterday was supposed to be to input information for this particular model..don't understand..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

The GFDL has never been very good at recognizing a sheared environment, and the HWRF may have the same issues.

So basically Ingrid has no chance for survival? I hope you're right.

[Sanibel]

Even if it survives I think it looks out to sea. Slow moving systems like this give the fronts time to create a recurve synoptic at this time of year.