TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Thunder44]

NRL has Ingrid at winds of 40kts:

08LINGRID.40kts-1004mb-151N-497W.

[alan1961]

Somebody go and mend the traffic lights..she can't go if there stuck on red..

[cycloneye]

NRL has Ingrid at winds of 40kts:

08LINGRID.40kts-1004mb-151N-497W.

Moved more west as at 5 AM it was at 15.1n-49.2w.

[canegrl04]

Interesting that on TWC's Trop Update this morning they said nothing about Ingrid being doomed.They said "slow intensification"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Interesting that on TWC's Trop Update this morning they said nothing about Ingrid being doomed.They said "slow intensification"

Dr. Lyons probably isn't in this morning, so I imagine they just parrot the NHC forecast of slight intensification, followed by weakening.

[Evil Jeremy]

Does anyone here still think that Ingrid still posses a threat to Florida or the rest of the EC for that matter, given the current model trend?

[hial2]

The latest HWRF increases Ingrid's strenght...yet I see what WXMAN57 sees..I thought the NOAA flight yesterday was supposed to be to input information for this particular model..don't understand..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

Zardoz Wrote: Good stuff in this thread. I've learned a lot.

Me to! Thanks Wxman57 for taking the time to explain your thoughts, most here are amateurs and need simple terms. Pro Mets tend to come online and rifle one line statements w/o details and leave most trying to understand what was just said. You always explain yourself very well and you tie in some humor!

[boca]

Wxman57 thinks Ingrid will be dead because of the tutt expected to develop. He's good so I'm going with what he says. If that tutt is that strong than Ingrid will be a naked nothing in a couple of days if that.

[MGC]

With the upper level shear Ingrid is about to encounter, I'd say that the TC days are numbered. I would not be surprised to see Ingrid open into a wave by the time she reaches the islands. All I can say is good.....MGC

[canegrl04]

Interesting that on TWC's Trop Update this morning they said nothing about Ingrid being doomed.They said "slow intensification"

Dr. Lyons probably isn't in this morning, so I imagine they just parrot the NHC forecast of slight intensification, followed by weakening.

Something has changed in their thinking since yesterday.The NHC all but had Ingrid dead in the long run.TWC saying pretty much the same thing.I guess we will find out in the coming dayswho erred-NHC or wxman57

[miamicanes177]

Wxman57 thinks Ingrid will be dead because of the tutt expected to develop. He's good so I'm going with what he says. If that tutt is that strong than Ingrid will be a naked nothing in a couple of days if that.

Before we get too giddy we have to remember he was saying Humberto was weakening as it became the fastest invest to a hurricane in recorded history. Second, the NHC is the only official source of information and they are not forecasting dissipation.

[Chacor]

Okay, can we not get into the discussion of who's right and who's wrong here? Time will tell. Let's get back on track.

[ronjon]

Both the 06Z GFDL and HWRF intensity models maintain an intact circulation and at least a weak tropical storm through the strongest of the shear over the next 2-3 days. Thereafter, both have gradual intensification with the HWRF model making Ingrid a CAT 1 hurricane by 5 days. Neither model dissipates the storm. I noticed on the zonal shear charts for the 00Z Euro that the greatest shear is forecast to occur over the next 48 hrs. Thereafter, there is a progged reduction in shear with generally favorable conditions after 72 hrs (unless the storm veered off in a due northerly course which is unlikely). By 5-6 days out, conditions for development are forecast to be very favorable in the area between 60 & 70W north of latitude 20N. My take is if it survives the next 48 hrs, we will possibly have a major storm down the road.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
Looking at the WV loop, the TUTT is massive and look at the moisture drying up around Ingrid. I don't see Ingrid moving NW into that TUTT, I don't understand how the models bring Ingrid crashing into that TUTT. I would think Ingrid would get pushed more N of due W around the TUTT.

[HollynLA]

I'm confused now. Wxman57 has it completely dead soon saying it cannot survive the TUTT and models have it holding together. Which is which here?

[boca]

Both the 06Z GFDL and HWRF intensity models maintain an intact circulation and at least a weak tropical storm through the strongest of the shear over the next 2-3 days. Thereafter, both have gradual intensification with the HWRF model making Ingrid a CAT 1 hurricane by 5 days. Neither model dissipates the storm. I noticed on the zonal shear charts for the 00Z Euro that the greatest shear is forecast to occur over the next 48 hrs. Thereafter, there is a progged reduction in shear with generally favorable conditions after 72 hrs (unless the storm veered off in a due northerly course which is unlikely). By 5-6 days out, conditions for development are forecast to be very favorable in the area between 60 & 70W north of latitude 20N. My take is if it survives the next 48 hrs, we will possibly have a major storm down the road.

Some people are saying fish, while I saw the HWRF curve it west at the end of the run.The suspense is killing me,either die or live.

[canegrl04]

Okay, can we not get into the discussion of who's right and who's wrong here? Time will tell. Let's get back on track.

Thats what I meant to convey in my last post (Time will tell)

[Chigger_Lopez]

Check out the WV loop and you can see how Ingrid is quickly getting the tar beaten out of her by the TUTT. Also, if you watch it looks like Ingrid THROWS UP the Outlfow boundary, or hiccups it. Like she just got punched in the stomach. She is not missing the TUTT though that is for sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Blown Away]

Looks like Ingrid is going into survival mode, she looks to be moving due W. Run Ingrid run before the TUTT eats you alive!!!