TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[boca]

If they relocate the center at 14.1n instead of 15.1n will that make any difference in track?

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF no longer shows king tutt storm killer and brings Ingrid to Cat 1.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Chacor]

51 knots at the surface. I would go 50 knots at 11am est.

The flight-level winds don't support that. Also, given that the last adv was 35, and the current environmental conditions, and given the current sat appearance, for continuity TPC might go maybe only 40 or 45.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

51 knots at the surface. I would go 50 knots at 11am est.

The flight-level winds don't support that. Also, given that the last adv was 35, and the current environmental conditions, and given the current sat appearance, for continuity TPC might go maybe only 40 or 45.

Possible, but the nhc went with surface winds for Felixs first upgrade. Also for Humberto...I'm starting to really question on how good the flight level winds are.

[wxman57]

The giant TUTT immediately to Ingrid's west is no longer just a prediction, it is a fact. Take a look at a WV loop and you can compare it to the 7am CDT today GFS map below. It's an enormous feature that Ingrid is just reaching. You can tell that the convection is being blown off to the east and southeast of the center now. Shear will only be increasing as time goes on. In 24 hours or less, all that's likely to be left of Ingrid is an exposed LLC. Beyond that, a naked swirl free of convection. Nothing could survive in such a hostile environment. And it's not like Ingrid would have to endure just a day or so of shear, more like a week or more.

Below is the 06Z run of the GFS. Maps are valid 7am today, Saturday, and Sunday. I plotted the 200mb (39,000ft) wind barbs (pink), wind speeds for each barb (yellow), and streamlines (blue). White arrows indicate the core of the jet around the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof). I identified the upper lows/highs and Ingrid's current and forecast positions.

One other thing to consider is if (when) Ingrid is torn apart that the LLC will not likely recurve, it'll track west with the lower-level flow. That would be right into the core of the strongest shear. So, enjoy Ingrid while she lasts, by this afternoon it'll most likely be a depression and weakening.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Some googling reveals:

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0493(2000)128%3C3352%3AAMLLTO%3E2.0.CO%3B2&ct=1

In tropical regions, Low-level thunderstorm outflow boundaries can also act to stabilize the normally unstable boundary layer, thereby weakening convection. As in midlatitudes, the tropical precipitation process can produce strong downdrafts through both precipitation loading and the evaporation of rain into a dry midlevel environment

Thus the appearance of outflow boundaries could be a sign that she is soon to weaken.

Especially interesting is the Hurricane Luis paragraph, which describes how the convection collapsed after a period of intense convection, shooting out the outflow boundaries. Luis was moving directly toward the now stabilized air mass, which served to interrupt the strengthening process.

Since the storm was traveling toward the northwest at this time, the LTO boundary, and the region of stable air associated with it, were being positioned just ahead of the storm’s center. When the hurricane’s core crossed into the area where this outflow air had spread, the stable air appeared to have had a strongly negative influence on the eyewall convection.

Visible shows that the outflow boundaries emerged from the eastern semicircle. It will be interesting to see how this storm reacts, as its the opposite of the Luis scenario.

[Thunder44]

51 knots at the surface. I would go 50 knots at 11am est.

The flight-level winds don't support that. Also, given that the last adv was 35, and the current environmental conditions, and given the current sat appearance, for continuity TPC might go maybe only 40 or 45.

Possible, but the nhc went with surface winds for Felixs first upgrade. Also for Humberto...I'm starting to really question on how good the flight level winds are.

Why don't you question how good the SFMR reports are? The plane uses an anenometer to measure winds speeds at flight level. While I believe the SFMR measures ocean waves to estimate wind speeds at the surface. IMO, the SFMR reports are suspect, if they show higher wind speeds than was measured at flight level.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I see the clouds blowing west to east a little...This is going to be a 1997 super tutt killer from heck. I've seen storms make it through, but this will have to be a fighter.\

Also humberto was up intill the last 3 hours upgraded based on the surface wind. Also felix was upgraded because of it. I think weak systems, remember tropical cyclones have there strongest "low pressure" wind field close to the surface. I think as they strengthen the flight level becomes the wind to watch for. That is just a theory.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

For the benefit of all as I begin the day in a learning mode myself:

A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere.

I'm supposing the TUTT is the reason for the shear Ingrid is experiencing - and the outlow boundaries just witnessed.

Seems to me that Ingrid may be on borrowed time already.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MON-TUE...GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE AXIS OF MID ATLC COAST SFC RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE STATE. THIS WL ACT TO REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW ON MON. MARINE SOURCE SHOWERS WL BE ISOLD IN NATURE WITH A SCT AFTERNOON THUNDER MAINLY INLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND HELP IN AFTERNOON STORMS AS WELL. PATTERN CHANGE IS SHOWN CONSISTENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRANSITORY CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NE FL COAST TUE WITH MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE STATE AND OVER THE GULF INTO WED. THIS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE BAHAMAS WOULD INCREASE RAN CHANCES HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. PREFER TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO BEFORE PULLING TRIGGER ON ANY HIGHER THAN SCT PRECIP COVERAGE AT MID WEEK.

Still expecting a wave across FL next week. Not sure if it is a weakened Ingrid?

[Chacor]

Well, FWIW the working TPC/NHC best-track for Ingrid (the ATCF file) has put Ingrid at TS strength well earlier than operationally upgraded. So we will see... if it was a TS when TPC operationally felt it was disorganised, it could yet continue to defy the odds.

[boca]

I guess this tutt will be a monster according to wxman57.So wxman57 should we write this off.

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

I don't think the shear will kill off TS Ingrid. Yes it will blow off the top and leave her naked as a J bird. But be cause she is only moving 7 MPH this will aloud her to maintain her low. If she was flying like dean and Felix yes would tear her up. But I think she will hold on. Then after she gets past the shear watch her blow into a nice storm. Where she will go I don't know. But she is on the same path as Floyd was. Yes I know it is not the same set up as Floyd was. But remember how close he came to Fla. But I think you will see in the coming days she will do just fine after the shears let up. JMO. For what it is worth.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah, shear is increasing over the cyclone. Also the pressure field is turning to mash. This thing does not have enough to put up a good fight...I got to agree with wxman57, I do feel this could remain a tropical storm through out to 11pm est. I also think this could remain a depression for the next 36 hours after that. You can see this beast that 97 "had" on that water vapor.

[cycloneye]

14/1145 UTC 15.3N 49.5W T3.0/3.0 INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Hmm a little more stronger.

[LaBreeze]

So, is Ingrid going to be an Atlantic fish storm or what? Curious.

[HURAKAN]

So, is Ingrid going to be an Atlantic fish storm or what? Curious.

If it's killed by shear. Then it will be a fish.

[Thunder44]

So, is Ingrid going to be an Atlantic fish storm or what? Curious.

More like a dead fish in the water.

Really, we'll just have to see how it survives the unfavorable enviornment the next couple of days.

[Zardoz]

Good stuff in this thread. I've learned a lot.