Tropical Storm NARI (0711) in WPAC
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- Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC
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Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC
Naha Obs...
METAR ROAH 141130Z 10028G57KT 070V140 3000 SHRA FEW010 BKN015 SCT020CB 28/25 Q0993
METAR ROAH 141130Z 10028G57KT 070V140 3000 SHRA FEW010 BKN015 SCT020CB 28/25 Q0993
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- CherlynV
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Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC
dwsqos2 wrote:Naha Obs...
METAR ROAH 141130Z 10028G57KT 070V140 3000 SHRA FEW010 BKN015 SCT020CB 28/25 Q0993
Oops - we appear to have simultaneously posted the 57kts out of Naha.
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Amazing. Currently waiting for the JMA to update their pages with 21 JST (12Z) data...
Hourly Weather Obs, Naha
Hourly Weather Obs, Naha Airport
Hourly Weather Obs, Naha
Hourly Weather Obs, Naha Airport
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- P.K.
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Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC
RSMC Tokyo CI of T6.0 at 1200 which looks to be an increase from T5.5 looking back at one of Chacor's posts from the morning.
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Re: Typhoon NARI (0711) in WPAC
P.K. wrote:RSMC Tokyo CI of T6.0 at 1200 which looks to be an increase from T5.5 looking back at one of Chacor's posts from the morning.
Then they've gone to 90 kt rather earlier (6 hours?) than expected. o_O
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772
WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0711 NARI (0711)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 25.7N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 29.1N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 161200UTC 32.7N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171200UTC 36.0N 127.7E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
945 hPa, which means a deepening rate of 1 and two-thirds hPa per hour.
WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0711 NARI (0711)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 25.7N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 29.1N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 161200UTC 32.7N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171200UTC 36.0N 127.7E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
945 hPa, which means a deepening rate of 1 and two-thirds hPa per hour.
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Wow, 115 knots from JTWC. This thing went from a TD to a cat4 in 36 hours. Not too far off STY now. It's forecast to peak at 125 kt but won't be surprised if it does manage 130 kt.
EDIT: Just took a look at the operational warnings... last three JTWC warnings, over 12 hours: 65 kt-95 kt-115 kt.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (NARI) HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER TROPO-
SPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 14NM EYE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
B. TY 12W HAS TAKEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YELLOW SEA EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON 141200Z SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 141200Z
RADAR FIX FROM OKINAWA. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 6.0/6.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES
FROM OKINAWA, AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
EDIT: Just took a look at the operational warnings... last three JTWC warnings, over 12 hours: 65 kt-95 kt-115 kt.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (NARI) HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER TROPO-
SPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 14NM EYE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
B. TY 12W HAS TAKEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YELLOW SEA EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON 141200Z SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 141200Z
RADAR FIX FROM OKINAWA. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 6.0/6.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES
FROM OKINAWA, AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
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