Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[WindRunner]

Some of the strongest radar returns I've seen so far are sitting about 5 miles south of High Island right now . . .

[SMNederlandTX]

oh my, now I am really nervous....I don't like hearing there is a chance for tornadoes, especially at night....never been through anything like this before, ( except for Rita, but we evacuated for that ) I am from Ohio originally and well, we had tornado warnings up there ( never been through one ) but always hada basement for protection, there are no basements here....don't think I will get much sleep tonight.....

[Steve]

Wouldn't you know it, just as the inner convection was alongshore, a newer intense band forms a hair to the east. Base Reflectivity, zoom this and it looks like a last hurrah before landfall. Next wobble north and it'll be on the coast IMHO (goes out to 12:46).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Steve

[JessRomero]

Channel 6 news just said people in nederland port neches port arthur are goin to get the worst of the storm so I am staying up for the night I guess because of power outages and tornado. They say possible 10 to 15 inches of rain. CRAP lol

[WindRunner]

AE is triggering its hail icon to the biggest value I've seen so far . . . obviously, in this case, there isn't hail (I doubt the Houston sounding is going to be representative of the core of this TC), but it does indicate strong convection aloft . . . i.e. a 60+dbZ blob between 15 and 20 thousand feet.

[Ptarmigan]

It has 80 mph winds. Humberto is a hurricane, albleit a small one with hurricane winds extending up to 15 miles. This is reminds a lot like Jerry in 1989. Made landfall east of Houston.

[SMNederlandTX]

At approximately what time will it be in the port arthur area?

[WindRunner]

Heading back S and W for another pass . . . already getting into the thick of things with 52kt SFMR and rising . . .

URNT15 KNHC 130557
AF306 0309A HUMBERTO HDOB 16 20070913
054730 2941N 09321W 8424 01601 9990 +167 +999 167024 024 021 000 01
054800 2940N 09323W 8426 01597 9990 +161 +999 165025 027 023 000 01
054830 2940N 09324W 8431 01593 9990 +158 +999 164029 030 019 000 01
054900 2940N 09326W 8427 01593 9990 +155 +999 168031 032 011 001 01
054930 2939N 09328W 8427 01591 9990 +154 +999 168033 033 017 000 01
055000 2939N 09330W 8426 01592 9990 +154 +999 164030 034 022 000 01
055030 2938N 09332W 8425 01591 9990 +153 +999 163033 035 021 002 01
055100 2938N 09334W 8426 01589 9990 +158 +999 162037 038 024 002 01
055130 2937N 09335W 8423 01590 9990 +158 +999 163036 037 026 004 01
055200 2937N 09337W 8428 01583 9990 +157 +999 165038 039 031 006 01
055230 2937N 09339W 8428 01581 9990 +151 +999 161039 039 031 011 01
055300 2936N 09341W 8419 01588 9990 +145 +999 157040 041 034 010 01
055330 2936N 09343W 8431 01575 9990 +155 +999 158041 042 034 007 01
055400 2935N 09345W 8427 01576 9990 +161 +999 157043 043 035 006 01
055430 2935N 09346W 8423 01577 9990 +155 +999 155043 043 036 006 01
055500 2935N 09348W 8430 01570 9990 +153 +999 154044 045 036 008 01
055530 2934N 09350W 8430 01565 9990 +144 +999 150045 046 038 012 01
055600 2934N 09352W 8425 01565 9990 +128 +999 149048 049 043 023 01
055630 2933N 09354W 8427 01563 9990 +131 +999 155055 059 049 035 01
055700 2933N 09356W 8434 01546 9990 +138 +999 162065 068 052 047 01

[rainman]

3 to 4 AM

[SMNederlandTX]

oh great, yep, no sleep tonight

[CrazyC83]

Next Recon data set will probably be the landfall intensity...

[WindRunner]

NHC forecast puts the center 10 miles due west of Orange at 7am CDT tomorrow, so be expecting the worst somewhere between 3 and 5am CDT

[drezee]

why is recon only going through the E quad again? NE quad should be used

[CrazyC83]

why is recon only going through the E quad again? NE quad should be used

Northern part of the storm is on land...

[Jagno]

oh great, yep, no sleep tonight

You'll be in good company. We won't be sleeping either. You just can't turn your back on these storms for 1 minute cause they'll fool ya. LOL

[WindRunner]

They found slightly higher FL winds in the E quad last time, plus the NE quad is far too close to shore for them to pentrate without feeling the land.

[MGC]

A lot of people in E Texas around Beaumont are in for a big surprise in a few hours as now Hurricane Humberto will be trecking overhead around dawn. I think Humberto has caught many unprepared as it spun up so quickly. I'm impressed at how rapidly the hurricane organized this morning thru afternoon to evening. I hope everyone got out of their FEMA trailers and sought shelter. I have a bad feeling that some people might get killed tonight because of this rather unexpected hurricane......MGC

[vbhoutex]

At approximately what time will it be in the port arthur area?

Radar shows the more intense storms getting ready to move into the PA area within a half hour or so with the worst storms appearing to be about 2 hours away. You can expect some very intense squalls for about the next 4-5 hours or so as the eye or what will be left of it passes very near to PA during this time.

[SMNederlandTX]

oh great, yep, no sleep tonight

You'll be in good company. We won't be sleeping either. You just can't turn your back on these storms for 1 minute cause they'll fool ya. LOL

That is comforting The only thing that really scares me are the possibilities of tornados....can't see that good at night, so it is the worst time for that kind of stuff to happen...glad I didn't stay behind when rita came through, I probably would have had a nervous breakdown LOL

[WindRunner]

80kt SFMR . . . the 102kts is bad data.

URNT15 KNHC 130607
AF306 0309A HUMBERTO HDOB 17 20070913
055730 2932N 09357W 8403 01584 9990 +139 +999 164047 051 051 038 05
055800 2932N 09359W 8457 01533 9990 +147 +999 166048 051 052 016 01
055830 2932N 09401W 8419 01568 9990 +154 +999 164048 049 036 003 01
055900 2931N 09403W 8427 01557 9990 +156 +999 161050 052 035 004 01
055930 2931N 09405W 8423 01554 9990 +154 +999 160055 056 040 006 01
060000 2930N 09406W 8428 01544 9990 +134 +999 159060 061 046 029 01
060030 2930N 09408W 8435 01523 9990 +125 +999 154066 069 054 046 01
060100 2930N 09410W 8426 01518 9990 +135 +999 149063 065 062 056 01
060130 2929N 09412W 8415 01517 9990 +144 +999 154068 071 072 051 01
060200 2929N 09414W 8413 01496 9990 +154 +999 159071 077 080 042 01
060230 2928N 09416W 8423 01462 9990 +162 +999 169073 076 077 017 01
060300 2928N 09417W 8455 01411 9990 +182 +999 177048 056 102 000 05
060330 2928N 09419W 8409 01442 9990 +205 +999 185029 034 052 002 01
060400 2928N 09421W 8432 01418 9990 +207 +999 176018 021 030 004 05
060430 2928N 09423W 8416 01433 9990 +215 +999 154013 014 026 000 05
060500 2927N 09425W 8447 01400 9990 +218 +999 167008 012 022 000 05
060530 2927N 09425W 8447 01400 9990 +222 +999 316007 014 024 000 01
060600 2925N 09428W 8438 01417 9990 +240 +999 321024 032 032 000 01
060630 2925N 09428W 8438 01417 9990 +244 +999 328037 041 047 000 01
060700 2923N 09431W 8430 01459 9990 +198 +999 320049 051 051 000 05

Also, pressure heights are much down. This could be 987 or 986mb right now . . . but we'll have to wait for the VDM or a drop to know for sure.