In light of today's model runs ... the EC is a little faster in placing a 1013mb low along the Central/Western Louisiana coast on Day 3 with the 12z ETA matching this output almost exactly ... the fact that the GFS seems to lose this low doesn't surprise me one bit ... it's in that timeframe where it "goes out to lunch" ... only to reappear within 36-48 hours of the event ... The NOGAPS has done a 180º on itself and takes the low NNW, N, and sharply NE across the Carolinas ... The UKMET continues to enforce the idea that the high will retrograde and build westward with not much fanfare whatsoever ... and based on what I've seen tonight on the model runs ... here it is ... oh, and not to mention, that Carlos is no more...plays into the equation now as well ...
What I think is happening that there are going to be two players here ... an energy split ... and it appears that with the trough digging into the Eastern States in a next couple of days, one low pressure area wants to develop along the boundary with a lot of tropical moisture to work with as the system from the Yucatan eventually begins to move NW... another player, WV loops reveal an elongated ULL in the SW portions of the BOC ... in time, I think this will begin to move westward or southwestward and has the chance to actually influence the steering of the current Yucatan low NW and then WNW for a time before turning more northerly ... at the same time, stateside, the trough and an associated front will probably bog down in the Southeast and stall, and hence, a s/w piece of energy develops (the splitting), though very weak will a focusing mechanism for showers/thunderstorms across the Southeast ... and in response, the corridor for the (tropical?) low is an overall NW movement between the ULL and the ridge to the NE ...
6/27/03 Prognostic Discussion ...
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Stormsfury
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cycloneye
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As always great anaylisis Stormsfury. 
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wx247
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Very good analysis Storms. I appreciate the discussion and your information.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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