Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Johnny]

I don't have any dought that Recon will find a tropical storm once in there..maybe even a strong one.

[carversteve]

I don't have any dought that Recon will find a tropical storm once in there..maybe even a strong one.

I'm no expert,but i agree.it's looking pretty healthy!!

[Steve]

Interestingly enough, 90L looks like a late-night/early-day blossomer type system. In which case, if it is moving slower than 6mph @ 350, then there is the chance it's blowing up at landfall (wherever) tomorrow and could pack a little of a punch though not a serious one (e.g. Cindy 2005). It's something to watch for the next 24 hours or so.
----------------------------
>>I didn't fully realize that Louisiana didn't have that bad of a drought

Where I live (Lafource Parish), it rained every day for about the first 2 1/2 weeks of July. The grass needs to be mowed about every 3 days or else it's approaching 7-8". Coastal Texas and even up into the Hill Country has had a lot of rain this year (some places over double annual rainfall rates). But yeah, I'm with you. If some rainfall can get up into the Tennssee Valley, it's possible some of the extreme drought conditions could be lessened. And if there are any future Gulf landfalls (and I'm almost positive based on patterns there will be something before the end of the month hitting east of where TD #9 is going to landfall), then maybe they can make up a few more inches before the fronts start coming down with more regularity.

Steve

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The aborted mission was supposed to do the 18Z fix. This mission is unscheduled. The second mission was supposed to occur for the 6Z fix tomorrow.

[hiflyer]

Looks like only 45 miles offshore.....recon better hurry if it keeps this nnw drift up....about a 40-50 mile diameter of the central stuff.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like only 45 miles offshore.....recon better hurry if it keeps this nnw drift up....about a 40-50 mile diameter of the central stuff.

It should start slowing down and take a more N to NE course as it approaches the coast. IMO

[dwg71]

So far the rain has been light in the Houston Metro plex, feeder bands aren't holding together when coming ashore. We need to get through rush hour w/o any major rain.

[windstorm99]

[KWT]

419
URNT15 KNHC 121703
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20070912
165300 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0152 +392 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165330 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0151 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165400 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0151 +374 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165430 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0151 +369 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165500 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0152 +368 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165530 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0151 +365 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165600 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0151 +365 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165630 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0151 +365 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165700 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0149 +360 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165730 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0149 +359 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165800 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0150 +355 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165830 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0151 +355 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165900 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0150 +349 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
165930 3025N 08855W 0160 00000 0150 +338 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
170000 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0150 +340 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
170030 3025N 08855W 0158 00000 0149 +327 +000 360000 000 087 000 23
170100 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0150 +307 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
170130 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0151 +317 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
170200 3025N 08855W 0161 00000 0151 +309 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
170230 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0150 +309 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
$$

[Stormcenter]

That is a very impressive radar loop. Thanks!

[KWT]

That really does look like a fairly rapidly developing tropical storm, the only issue still remains the fact that is going to be dragging off more stable and dry air from Texas but it does look good, can't really mistake the center either on the radar loop.

[DrewFL]

If RECON continues to sit on the runway the storm will eventually come to them!

[srainhoutx]

RECON still on the ground at Kessler, isn't it?

[gboudx]

That really does look like a fairly rapidly developing tropical storm, the only issue still remains the fact that is going to be dragging off more stable and dry air from Texas but it does look good, can't really mistake the center either on the radar loop.

I agree. If I just logged in and the 1st thing I looked at was that radar loop, I would assume there was a tropical storm about to hit the Texas coast.

[Stratosphere747]

Well there was movement to the N/NNW throughout the morning. Not only does there appear to be a bit of a slowdown, the satellite and radar signature continues to improve.

Recon obs should be quite interesting...

[mattpetre]

Looks to me to be coming ashore W of Galveston around 5:30 to 6:30 timeframe, anyone else agree?

[CajunMama]

Lake Charles NWS is on the ball! Sorry this is so long...i even clipped some stuff out! http://tinyurl.com/3c7lor


Hurricane Local Statement
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT
LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-131615-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1102 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORT O`CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR CAMERON ...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...VERMILION...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE... IBERIA...UPPER AND LOWER
SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY PARISHES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORT O`CONNOR TEXAS TO
CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAMERON
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 IS LOCATED AT
27.8 NORTH LATITUDE...95.2 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 130 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA...AND 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NO EVACUATIONS OF COASTAL JEFFERSON COUNTY OR COASTAL CAMERON
PARISHES HAS BEEN CALLED FOR AT THIS TIME.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES ARE ALREADY RUNNING ONE AND AN HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT
CAMERON LOUISIANA...AND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT SABINE PASS AND
CYPREMORT PORT LOUISIANA. FOR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
STORM TIDES TO RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET ACROSS COASTAL JEFFERSON
AND CAMERON PARISHES...AND 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS COASTAL VERMILION...
IBERIA...AND SAINT MARY PARISHES.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL
STORM THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORECASTED TRACK...THE ENVELOP OF
SUSTAINED MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
COASTAL JEFFERSON COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND SPREAD FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF JEFFERSON...HARDIN...AND TYLER COUNTIES
INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTS OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE RAINBANDS THAT AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


INLAND FLOODING...
INLAND FLOODING IS THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE
TO THE SLOW EXPECTED MOVEMENT NORTHWARD. EXPECT AREAWIDE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO RANGE 8 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 15
INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS
OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES INLAND THURSDAY...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE RAINBANDS THAT SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.HYDROLOGIC IMPACT...
HIGH TIDES ALONG THE COAST WILL CAUSE WATER BACK-UP ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU...VERMILION...NECHES AND SABINE
RIVERS. CURRENTLY...THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY AND SALT
WATER BARRIER ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE FLOOD STAGE OF 4 FEET LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO CAUSE AREA RIVER LEVELS AND FLOWS TO INCREASE. RESIDENTS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FUTURE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 2 PM CDT.

[mattpetre]

For the sake of my own sanity (I've never lived on the coast during season before) I'm heading home now to spend the afternoon with my wife and avoid the probable craziness that will be this afternoon in Houston traffic. This could get really ugly IMO.

[dwg71]

Looks to me to be coming ashore W of Galveston around 5:30 to 6:30 timeframe, anyone else agree?

Its much closer to land than I expected, I do like the fact that there is a lot of dryer stable air coming off land. It appear to be a parting of the storm and a lot of rain is staying east of Houston and a pocket of dryer air is just north of TD9.

[mattpetre]

Tropical storm strength is certain for sure.

Yeah, this storm is beginning to look better than Gabrielle did towards landfall...