Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[carversteve]

I have a ?..what would keep this thing from moving east as the trough picks it up

[HURAKAN]

I have a ?..what would keep this thing from moving east as the trough picks it up

If the trough is very, very weak. But I think the consensus is that the trough is strong enough to pick this system.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE HUMBERTO! Where is Jim Cantore this time?!?!?

[HouTXmetro]

That makes me wonder if that was what Dr Steve Lyons was talking about all along. He mentioned it i think over the weekend or last week. The thought just crossed my ming after reading some of the latest post.

Everyone was sure doubting Dr. Lyons when he kept talking about 90L moving North to TX/LA... looks like he was pretty close to me.

He initially said it was going to move into the FL panhandle.

[Stormcenter]

Latest:



LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE HUMBERTO! Where is Jim Cantore this time?!?!?

All I can say is WOW!

[mattpetre]

I have a ?..what would keep this thing from moving east as the trough picks it up

If the trough is very, very weak. But I think the consensus is that the trough is strong enough to pick this system.

The latest steering product would have it moving slightly west of north... steering was divergent earlier and is now looking to be on the west side of this divergence, could get interesting for H-Town.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Tireman4]

Is it me or is it getting better organized?

[carversteve]

WOW..it is looking good..could it be a ts already?Just wondering

[KWT]

Must be close to tropical storm status now just on apperence alone, going to be pretty lop-sided as the circulation is drawing in drier air from Texas down its western flank, the heaviest rain will be on the eastern side.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You know, I wonder, like the NHC indicates in their discussion, if this depression is indeed already a tropical storm, given its organization and how quickly it's getting organized:

WITH 38 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM SHIP V7DI7...THE SYSTEM
MIGHT ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THOSE WINDS
ARE JUDGED AS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE.

Hmmmm..... unrepresentative or not, I am very curious to see what recon finds in this depression. I wonder if it may have winds of 50-60 mph. If that's the case, we will really need to get this thing inland quickly. I'm not saying it'll definitely become a hurricane or anything major; I just think it may become stronger than some people think.

One question: If it does move northeast as forecast, would that perhaps help the drought situation in the South?

-Andrew92

[jasons2k]

Updates from Jeff Lindner @ 10:30AM:

Tropical Depression forms off the upper TX coast.

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued at 1000am from Port O Conner to Cameron LA

Very Dangerous flood event possible for SE TX and metro Houston

Discussion:

USAF plane is currently en-route and should reach the depression around 1100am. Center is located about 80 miles SSE of Freeport and is moving N at 6mph. This is track is forecast to continue with the center crossing the coast near the west end of Galveston Is. between 700pm and midnight. Conditions are going to go downhill quickly this evening.

NHC brings the system onshore as a tropical storm this evening and then moves it into east TX late Thursday. Some of the latest guidance loops the system back into the Gulf of Mexico after 72 hours.

Impacts:

Main impacts will be heavy rains and flooding. Will go with an average of 5-10 inches across the area with isolated totals of 15-20 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude will no doubt cause very serious flooding. Main axis of excessive rainfall looks along and east of a line from Freeport to Katy to The Woodlands where center of the low will track.

NWS has ramped up the tide forecast along the upper TX coast for tonight and early Thursday.

Expectation is for a 3.0-4.0 foot above normal tides at Galveston Pleasure Pier at the Thursday morning high tide. Tides of this magnitude will begin to overwash the west end of Galveston Is and portions of the Bolivar Pen early Thursday morning. Wave action will be breaking near the dune lines by late tonight. Within Galveston Bay tides will run 1.5-2.5 feet above normal and with wave action may push water onto the Kemah boardwalk.

Flooding from tides should be minor although beach erosion may be more significant.

[HURAKAN]

Is it me or is it getting better organized?

It has been getting better organized since the overnight hours. At this rate it should be a TS very soon, if not already. RECON was going to confirm this but had problems and couldn't investigate the storm.

[Stormcenter]

Is it me or is it getting better organized?

It's getting better organized with every passing hour.

[jhamps10]

man looking at the satellite, this is a bad time for RECON to have to turn around to keesler.

[HURAKAN]

463
URNT15 KNHC 121643
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20070912
163300 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 9990 +384 +999 360000 000 999 999 25
163330 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +383 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
163400 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 23
163430 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163500 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163530 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +379 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163600 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163630 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163700 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163730 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163800 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163830 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163900 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163930 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164000 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164030 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +381 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164100 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +384 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164130 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164200 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164230 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
$$

New mission.

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You know, I wonder, like the NHC indicates in their discussion, if this depression is indeed already a tropical storm, given its organization and how quickly it's getting organized:

WITH 38 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM SHIP V7DI7...THE SYSTEM
MIGHT ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THOSE WINDS
ARE JUDGED AS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE.

Hmmmm..... unrepresentative or not, I am very curious to see what recon finds in this depression. I wonder if it may have winds of 50-60 mph.

Unfortunately... recon turned back without making a single centre fix. Issues with something.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Trough in Central Texas should pick it up.

[HURAKAN]

man looking at the satellite, this is a bad time for RECON to have to turn around to keesler.

New mission:

463
URNT15 KNHC 121643
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20070912
163300 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 9990 +384 +999 360000 000 999 999 25
163330 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +383 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
163400 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 23
163430 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163500 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163530 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +379 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163600 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163630 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163700 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163730 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163800 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163830 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163900 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
163930 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164000 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +380 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164030 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +381 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164100 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +384 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164130 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164200 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
164230 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +385 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
$$

[Chacor]

New flight on the runway.

[Stormcenter]

Trough in Central Texas should pick it up.

And take it in what direction?