Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Chacor]

481
URNT15 KNHC 121521
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 10 20070912
151030 2902N 09355W 6196 04184 9990 +023 +999 159022 025 000 011 01
151100 2902N 09353W 6196 04186 0141 +025 +025 153022 025 007 011 05
151130 2903N 09351W 6195 04194 9990 +025 +999 146024 024 029 037 05
151200 2905N 09349W 6198 04187 9990 +013 +999 132026 027 028 034 05
151230 2906N 09346W 6199 04186 9990 +014 +999 132026 027 028 018 05
151300 2907N 09344W 6213 04168 9990 +012 +999 142025 027 029 025 05
151330 2908N 09343W 6211 04171 9990 +017 +999 129022 024 033 010 05
151400 2909N 09341W 6218 04158 9990 +020 +999 147023 027 029 025 01
151430 2910N 09339W 6191 04194 9990 +022 +999 135021 024 035 025 05
151500 2910N 09337W 6204 04178 9990 +014 +999 153023 027 034 019 05
151530 2910N 09335W 6215 04170 9990 +016 +999 157019 024 034 016 01
151600 2909N 09333W 6206 04178 9990 +031 +999 159012 013 027 012 01
151630 2909N 09331W 6210 04177 9990 +035 +999 166015 016 017 010 01
151700 2909N 09329W 6207 04178 9990 +035 +999 164016 017 021 010 01
151730 2908N 09327W 6194 04204 9990 +032 +999 162015 020 011 012 01
151800 2908N 09325W 6210 04177 9990 +035 +999 166014 015 001 010 01
151830 2908N 09323W 6210 04177 9990 +035 +999 173014 015 000 009 01
151900 2907N 09321W 6206 04180 0137 +035 +035 168015 016 000 009 00
151930 2907N 09319W 6210 04176 0140 +033 +033 168014 015 000 009 00
152000 2907N 09316W 6207 04180 0139 +032 +029 171015 015 000 009 00
$$

[cpdaman]

Wxman57 does not seem too concerned about 90L...he thinks it should just be major rain maker.
Usually tropical systems do not rapidly intensify when too close to an approaching trough due to some strong upper level shear...
If 90L was sitting under a ridge, then it would have a much better chance to rapidly intensify.

Charley '04 rapdily intensified in front of an approaching trough

charley was moving rapidly in line with a jet maximum that the trough set up , like wilma as it approached SW fl.

if these systems were stationary the relative shear would have reversed the intensification IMO but this trough to the west of td 9 is weaker than those referenced

[x-y-no]

Why did recon turn around?

I don't know, but they're ascending again too, so they must have had a problem.

[drezee]

Recon says close to Tropical Storm...

151430 2910N 09339W 6191 04194 9990 +022 +999 135021 024 035 025 05



SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind

35 knots*
(~ 40.2 mph*)

[Andy_L]

Odd...they went from cruising alt of about 5800 meters down to 2200 before climbing back to 4200 as per the last report. Maybe a system malfunction and they are RTB??

[DrewFL]

They're not even at operational level yet.

[Andy_L]

thats at 4200 meters alt........

[Brent]

35 kt should reduce to something that is not a TS.

Not to say this isn't, but that one obs doesn't prove it.

[x-y-no]

Recon says Tropical Storm!!!

...

151430 2910N 09339W 6191 04194 9990 +022 +999 135021 024 035 025 05

That SFMR reading is flagged. Doubt it's right.

[srainhoutx]

FYI AFD from HGX this mid morning...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY THE HURRICANE
CENTER WITH OUR MARINE AND COASTAL ZONES NOW UNDER A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING A MILD CIRCULATION
CENTER UNDER A CURRENTLY MASSIVE REGION OF BLOW-UP CONVECTION
ABOUT 80-90 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF GALVESTON. PRESSURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERING TO BELOW 1008 MB AT BUOY 42019 AS THIS IS THE BEST
APPROXIMATE OF THE SURFACE-BASED LOW AS OF 14Z. ALL SIGNS ARE THAT
TD NINE IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AS THERE HAS BEEN A TIGHTENING
OF THE OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST...OR REMNANTS
OF YESTERDAY`S COOL FRONT...THAT MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAIN.

THUS...OUR MAIN THREAT FROM TD NINE AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE WILL
BE THAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE INLAND TWO-TIER COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
TOTAL EVENT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH WIDESPREAD
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEARING 15 INCHES AS OUTER BANDS
ROTATE ON IN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED THE POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR...OR ANTICIPATE...THESE STRONG NORTHERN CONVECTIVE BANDS.

PLEASE REFER TO ALL TPC PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TD
NUMBER NINE

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[drezee]

it is flagged though

[jopatura]

As an aside, what would happen if the NHC decided that both systems merited upgrade to TS status in the same advisory? Would they assign the H name to the one closer to land, or would they use the old "flip a coin" method?

I'm pretty sure it would go according to TD#'s, but I'm not 100% positive.

[Chacor]

671
URNT15 KNHC 121531
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 11 20070912
152030 2906N 09314W 6209 04174 0135 +035 +027 171015 015 000 009 00
152100 2906N 09311W 6209 04179 0138 +035 +025 176015 016 000 009 00
152130 2906N 09309W 6209 04178 0143 +034 +019 181016 017 000 009 00
152200 2905N 09306W 6210 04180 0142 +035 +009 184015 015 000 009 00
152230 2905N 09304W 6209 04178 0150 +031 +011 183014 015 000 009 00
152300 2905N 09301W 6209 04183 0152 +030 +008 180016 016 000 009 00
152330 2904N 09259W 6207 04183 0152 +030 +004 182016 016 000 009 00
152400 2904N 09256W 6209 04183 0153 +030 +005 179017 017 000 009 00
152430 2904N 09254W 6206 04189 0150 +032 +012 176020 021 000 010 00
152500 2903N 09251W 6209 04182 0147 +034 +011 177019 020 000 010 03
152530 2904N 09248W 6209 04190 0154 +033 +012 168019 022 999 999 03
152600 2905N 09246W 6208 04185 0152 +032 +012 156021 022 028 033 03
152630 2906N 09244W 6211 04181 0148 +035 +002 159021 021 029 031 03
152700 2907N 09241W 6207 04184 0147 +038 -013 160020 021 029 040 03
152730 2908N 09239W 6211 04180 0145 +038 -025 160023 024 029 030 03
152800 2909N 09237W 6216 04173 0156 +032 -004 165024 024 029 040 03
152830 2910N 09234W 6209 04184 0154 +032 -010 166025 025 030 035 03
152900 2911N 09232W 6210 04184 0163 +029 -012 169026 026 030 032 03
152930 2912N 09230W 6211 04177 0167 +023 -014 169024 025 030 031 03
153000 2913N 09227W 6210 04180 0166 +020 +004 167023 023 030 032 05
$$

Continuing NEwards.

[HURAKAN]

Did they get to the LLC?

[Chacor]

Did they get to the LLC?

No.

[cyclonic chronic]

it doesnt look like they made it to the center

[x-y-no]

Did they get to the LLC?

Nope. They didn't even get all the way down to operational altitude before turning around and ascending again.

[HURAKAN]

That's sad because the latest satellite images show it could be a minimal TS already.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Chacor]

Altitude seems to have levelled out. Maybe they'll turn around again and make a pass from a higher elevation.